The Polk Blog

Light vehicle sales for 2009 were 10.4 million, the lowest level in 27 years and 21.2% lower than 2008. Polk predicts the light vehicle market will be 11.5 million units in 2010, according to its most recent U.S. automotive forecast. We believe wealth accumulation and improving consumer confidence added to GDP growth in the 4th quarter of 2009. We feel GDP growth in 2010 will be slow but steady at 2.9%.

It is clear that we are in a recovery; however, risks to the pace of economic growth remain. As Government stimulus programs end, consumers must have confidence to continue spending and businesses need to invest and hire, otherwise the economic recovery could slow in 2010.

We are encouraged by a light vehicle industry SAAR above 10 million for three consecutive months and record low inventories at dealerships. While industry levels remain far below their normal levels, there seems to be some momentum out there.

The latest Polk light vehicle forecast is available free for your download. This month's forecast discusses December 2009 sales, our economic outlook and our light vehicle forecast for the year ahead. I invite you to read the January edition of the forecast report available on Polk's forecasting dashboard. For a full copy of Polk’s U.S. Light Vehicle Forecast Report,  please visit Polk's Forecasting Dashboards today.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Forecast

Posted by Dave Goebel, North American Forecast Consultant, Polk (01.08.2010)

If you're like me, you're probably wondering why Ford has come out with a new product in the Medium Duty Commercial Vehicle Market segment this fiscal year, when industry sales are expected to be weaker than original forecasts. If you did wonder, then you haven't seen the Ford Transit Connect. An unabashed, small (don't dare call it mini) van that promises to be the vehicle version of a multi-tasking child that is watching television, playing a computer game, and text messaging their friends all at the same time.

The six-foot six-inch height is surprising and creates a roomy, if not downright capacious space for whatever application the owner can imagine. Plus, Edmunds lists the vehicle with a 23 mpg fuel rating and 135 cu. ft. of cargo space all at a price tag of $20.8K - welcome specs for the small business owner looking to save, in all areas of their business, without sacrificing quality. If you need power, though, then this vehicle may not be for you. The 4 cylinder engine is only putting out 128 lbs. ft. of torque at 4750 rpm. The horsepower story isn't much better with 136 hp at 6300 rpm.

I still think this vehicle has the opportunity to be a game-changing crossover in the commercial and consumer vehicle markets alike. The large space gives contractors, small business owners and shuttle services the opportunity to use a smaller, more fuel efficient vehicle with enough room to handle all of their needs. For the consumer, the Transit Connect has an optional three-across bench style second row seat. This could mean a multitude of uses for drivers with wheelchairs, families with an active lifestyle, small bands and folks who simply dig the quirkiness of the vehicle.

Ford has also reached out to the earth friendly crowd - they will be happy to know that Consumer Reports mentioned Ford's plans to come out with a battery-electric hybrid version this year. It seems as though the hits just keep on coming for Ford as they add to the ever-popular Mustang muscle car and F-Series trucks with the Connect, redesigned Fusion and Taurus. Suddenly Ford's vehicle lineup is looking quite strong and attractive. They may even prompt me to take the, "Have you driven a Ford lately" challenge to heart, and actually drive one instead of simply answering, "No."

I am excited to start seeing these vehicles on the road here in the U.S. instead of pictures from Europe but I'm even more excited to see what effect the vehicle will have on the industry trend to produce larger - more powerful and roomy - but less efficient vehicles. What effect do you think the new Ford Transit Connect will have on the market?

Posted by Therran Oliphant, Account Representative, Commercial Vehicle Truck Group, Polk (01.05.2010)

For years, auto companies have worked hard to be relevant to their customers. For example, OEM marketers chase the "youth market." Why? It plants the seed for future buyers; it gives auto designers insight into cool and popular trends. Plus, youth are very mobile and socially connected, which helps spread word-of-mouth about products they endorse to each other, to name just a few reasons. I suppose this is why some of the auto brands you and I read about hook up with popular video games - to connect the same audience to two product sets: autos and entertainment. Both business categories have the same basic goal: sell more stuff.

So this got me thinking about what auto companies could learn from the video game moguls of the planet. Certainly something can be learned from companies like Activision, which sold half a billion units of their Modern Warfare 2 game in its first week when it was released this October. While $60 a unit for this game is a big price gap compared to the price of a new vehicle, both the video game and auto sectors would like to build hype, interest, enthusiasm, heck, simply raw adrenaline, when their new product hits the stores.

Some tips to consider:

Make the Purchase INSTANTLY Gratifying
Here's reality:  If I buy a game, I'm back on my couch in less than an hour flying, driving, shooting, whatever with my new fantasy. Can OEMs and dealers make something similar happen more often? Volkswagen's "Sign Then Drive" event is a nice attempt at this. Their ads depict wanna-be owners of a new VW simply signing a sheet of paper and zipping off to a fun, new experience. There's something to be said for a speedy delivery.

Nostalgia is a Powerful Pill
One trick to being relevant is playing on the psychology of nostalgia. How many 40+ year olds are out there who melt when they are able to fly a Star Wars Tie Fighter on their 42" television? These are the same folks who saw the first Star Wars when it released in 1977. The lion "roar" of that speedy ship flying across the big screen is now in their own living room blasting away rebels. I'm sure Dodge, Ford and Chevrolet brand folks play on this same tenet when they strive to get grown-ups jazzed about the Charger, Mustang and Camaro. But these iconic cars are an exception and most models you and I can buy don't do much to connect a past experience to the new one. They should.

Tease, Tease, Tease...and Don't Let the Competition Make You Hide
Video game companies promote forthcoming titles very effectively. And they don't worry if the competition sees their stuff. There are entire sites dedicated to showcasing upcoming game releases. But auto companies pay top dollar to mask their product, so most people don't see their new release in live form (which puts several freelance photographers in business to catch a peek at a new model when it's buzzing around for a test drive). The end-buyers should see and feel more of what's coming in the product. And I don't believe car review magazines do the job compared to what we can see online.

Note: While they are not a gaming company, Apple's strategy of being morgue-like quiet with any new releases plays to their benefit. But their cult-like following wants to be surprised at the last minute because most of what Apple puts out there tends to get rave reviews for design, simplicity and integration, so it's a satisfying result. Yet even so, Apple does play off the tech-rumor mill which builds hype leading up to the unveiling of the iWhatever. Most auto companies don't have that intense of a rabid fan-base. Perhaps more for another discussion.

So if you had the reins to promote and deliver cars and trucks, what would you do? "Game on!"

Posted by Lonnie Miller, Director of Industry Analysis, Polk (12.22.2009)

Top global auto manufacturers rely on Polk’s automotive forecasts to analyze, simulate and forecast short- and long-term vehicle demand. Now, you can access a free snapshot of our global forecast via the Polk Global Forecasting Dashboards.

You’ll find the latest analysis and predictions for select markets around the world. The new Polk Global Forecasting Dashboards will be updated regularly so check back often to ensure you have the most updated information.

Sample: Global Light Vehicle Development

Posted by Polk (12.15.2009)

Are you loyal? I'm not talking about loyal to your job, your friends or your breakfast cereal. I'm talking about your car...or the manufacturer of that car. I'm asking because it's a subject we think a lot about at Polk. So much so, that on January 12, 2010, Polk will be presenting the 14th Annual Polk Automotive Loyalty Awards at the Automotive News World Congress. Winners of these awards are automotive manufacturers that have demonstrated the ability to bring customers back through positive owner experiences. That means they took action—they came back and purchased or leased another vehicle of the same model, make or manufacturer. So, have you been loyal?

I've been loyal. When my first child became of a more social age, I was thrust into a world of school, birthday parties and soccer games. This meant a life of carpooling other people’s kids and their runny noses, sticky fingers and muddy cleats. And, while hiding under a rock would have been my preferred method of dealing with this, it became very clear to me, thanks to my wife, that a minivan would be the proper solution.

And so began my ongoing relationship with the Chevrolet Venture. Other than oil changes, the first lease offered no problems in the way of maintenance. It was reliable and kept me a good distance from the invading children I was forced to transport. The second lease was an equally good relationship. So much so, that with 0% financing, I bought the third. The reliability of the Venture made me loyal. So that's my story, what's yours?

Are you loyal to a specific make or model? Are you a loyal owner? We want to hear your story.

Posted by Jeff Stone, Senior Marketing Specialist, Polk (12.11.2009)

I've held nothing back about my love of minivans, but in a time with global platforms and small cars I'm glad Toyota continues to invest in the minivan segment. New Sienna features that I found most thoughtful of the busy American family include:

• 23" second row sliding seats. Translation - I can have the seat closer to the front row for when the baby needs his pacifier while underway or I can move the seat all the way back to let third row passengers in without taking my kid out of their car seat.
• A stowable second row middle seat. Translation - I can have more cup holders and storage when there is only 2 kids in the back or another seat when friends want to come too.
• The SE trim sits lower. Translation - It's easier to get everyone in and out.

Back in 2004 there were 22 minivan players in the U.S. market and the Toyota Sienna was the best selling minivan. Now in 2009, there are 9 players in the market and Honda has been leading sales of this dwindling segment since 2005 while Ford and GM have or are in the process of discontinuing their minivan models. Minivans are now known for being uncool and to many it's seen as a necessary evil. But the Sienna is offering a new sporty SE trim with sports tuned suspension, 19-inch wheels and a bolder design. Maybe now my husband might consider driving one... I doubt it. How about you?

Posted by Margaret Zewatsky, Global Market Analyst, Polk (12.4.2009)

With the market tsunamis of 2008 and 2009, dealers and OEMs who have weathered the storm are viewing their business and markets differently than the earlier "roaring 2000s."

When new vehicle sales shrink from 17 million new units to 10.5 million, the overall cost structure of the retail channel and consumer spending compresses at the same rate. Dealerships, agencies, lead providers and CRM companies must adjust their automotive marketing efforts and budgets to address the new volumes of new and used vehicle sales, parts & service and Finance & Insurance penetration. The pure numbers from a customer traffic and transaction point are stressful, and the resources and data used in the past will not result in the same level of sales renewals and fixed operations retention.

So, how do dealers and marketers acquire new customers at a cost which is acceptable to their P&L requirements? They use Budget Prospecting to acquire new customers from the pool of orphan owners, first-time buyers, non-traditional loyalists and social network influencers.

Having the opportunity to attend conferences like Driving Sales and J.D. Power has provided me with a number of insights into the dynamics of our new retail environment and how to transition to the dynamics of budget prospecting.

Digital marketing, media spread and prospect targeting are now sciences which take constant feeding and balancing for customer retention. The constantly changing population base requires retailing efforts to focus on a combination of targeting points to effectively reach new prospects with pertinent and valuable offers, advice, community support and service to earn, retain and grow a business relationship through social networking.

To survive as one of 15,000 franchised dealers, the discipline of building prospects outside of your DMS name file and CRM marketing database requires significant effort for capturing the consumers at the bottom of the funnel. Also critical are consumers in the "lost zone" of orphan owners, first-time buyers and consumers who can be influenced on where to service their vehicles or purchase their next new or used vehicle.

All of this must be done with a cost per acquisition that meets the financial and ROI requirements of dealers, agencies and OEMs. Those who balance lead acquisition with "budget prospecting" will achieve long term growth strategies for their market and brand(s). They will continue to adapt and adjust to this changing and challenging market by growing sales, profit and market share. All of these "scorecard" evaluation points are keys to the health and ongoing transition and growth of the automotive retail channel.

Posted by Brad Korner, Director - Client Sales & Service, Automotive Retail Solutions, Polk (12.3.2009)

As the Thanksgiving holiday approaches, I've given some thought to all of the things that we at Polk can be thankful for...

10. Our Heritage. My great grandfather founded Polk in 1870. In 1921, my Grandfather ushered in Polk's entrance into the automotive industry. And we haven't looked back.

9. The State of Michigan. Sure times are tough here in Michigan, but there's something about the people and the work ethic in Michigan that keeps us all working hard everyday. This is the Motor City and for a company solely focused on automotive, this is the only place for Polk.

8. Our Longevity. I'm proud to be part of something this long-standing. Not many companies have been around for 139 years.  The first gas-powered car arrived in 1896—26 years after Polk was founded. We were here long before the car, and long before the computer and the internet.

7. The Evolving Nature of Our Business. The great thing about the automotive business is that it continually drives forward.

6. The Automobile. What is it about cars that drives us crazy? Is it the speed? The styling? The sensibility? For me, I just like cars. I like driving them, looking at them and counting them.

5. Our Data. We pride ourselves on being the gold standard of automotive data. However, more than the data, it's our passion for analysis and uncovering high-value insights to help our clients make more informed and more confident decisions.

4. The Internet. It's hard to imagine how any of us accomplished anything in the days before computers, let alone the worldwide web. The impact on commerce and information distribution has been astounding. We've come a long way from radio as our major source of news and information.

3. Our Solutions. It's great to help people solve problems. We help our customers get results and that is something to be thankful for!

2. Our People. Remember picking teams as a kid? Sometimes you didn't get everyone you wanted on your team. At Polk, that's not the case. We have some of the most knowledgeable people in the automotive industry around the world. And they are all dedicated to making our customers jobs easier. And that leads us to...

1. Our Customers. Customers have always been and will always be our primary focus at Polk. Without them, we have no purpose. So at this time of reflection, I offer to our customers, from everyone at Polk, have a very happy Thanksgiving and a great holiday season…and thanks!

Posted by Stephen Polk, Chairman/CEO, Polk (11.25.2009)

Small cars can provide ultra luxury, too! Luxury OEMs, Rolls Royce and Aston Martin have both announced new releases of small cars in Europe.

Rolls Royce recently announced they are planning to release a special edition Mini Cooper in 2010. Mini Cooper and Rolls Royce are both owned by parent company, BMW. It makes sense to offer a minicar to wealthy Rolls Royce owner garages that is easy on the environment, yet still allows the posh comforts to which they are accustomed.

Aston Martin is also working on a minicar called the Cygnet for the European market. The Cygnet will help the automaker comply with the 2012 emissions regulation. Aston Martin is partnering with Toyota to utilize the iQ platform, but the exterior and interior plans are said to meet the Aston Martin luxury expectations. In the recent minicar analysis I wrote, titled "Will Super Small Cars Generate Super Small Sales", the Cygnet, included in the Western European automotive forecast, was expected to sell 625 units in Western Europe by 2014.

So the big question... With a Mini Cooper starting at $20K and a Rolls Royce Phantom going for $380K+, how much will the Mini Cooper Rolls Royce Edition cost? Anyone ready to place an order?

Posted by Margaret Zewatsky, Global Market Analyst, Polk (11.24.2009)

Everywhere you look, you'll find blogs and articles buzzing about the topic of Social Media. Meanwhile the topic of "email" is getting pushed into the digital marketing archives. Yet, many of my customers keep asking me about emails. "What do you see as some of the best practices for email marketing?" "Is email better than social media for direct marketing?" "Why are so many of my emails not going through to the intended recipient?" It sounds to me that email isn't anywhere near dead. I think savvy business professionals realize that email is still great for parts and service reminders, promoting dialogue with loyal customers and targeting special offers. So, to all of you who asked, I offer the following:

Your email is always with you
Smartphone usage has skyrocketed - especially for executives and decision-makers. Do that receiver a favor and send emails that are viewable, with links that go to Smartphone friendly websites, so that your messages have more of an opportunity of being read. Therefore, graphically rich emails with links to content rich sites may not be the best option for increasing read rates.

Social media and email are integrated
Email is one of the best ways to share your social network profiles via signature tagging. Mashable gives us a guide to the five best tools to use for aggregating networks and offering solutions to "unclutter" your signature line with all of those networks. Additionally, using social media is one of the best ways to share emails. "Share - to - social" can increase email reach by more than 24%, as noted in Media Post - so don't see them as separate, but linked technologies that can help integrate your message through multiple platforms.

Email volume is rising
The Email Stat Center displays some amazing usage statistics that blew my mind. The one that surprised me the most was that of the 70% of people that have multiple email accounts, they will receive nearly 600 emails per week! Wow! This indicates a need to be able to get through the clutter. Plus, those users are probably extremely sophisticated. Therefore, we must be cognizant of subject lines, copy, and offers so that our emails are opened. The caveat to this positive centers around managing that volume properly. Many email professionals believe that overly frequent messaging can get you designated as a spammer. Before beginning a campaign, look into the best practices of your industry and email marketing to ensure you're viewed as the quality organization you want to portray.

My personal recommendation to accomplish the former are:

• Never include the name of the person in the subject line. You will be labeled a spammer if you do this.
• Get to the point. If I'm reading 600 emails a week, I don't have the time to sift through an ambiguous communication to get to the offer.
• Give the receiver a chance to dialogue with your organization. One of the most important lessons of social media is that people want to dialogue and be a part of a larger conversation.
• Targeting for the commercial vehicle market is paramount. After you develop your target market, get out there and communicate! Happy emailing.

Posted by Therran Oliphant, Account Representative, Commercial Vehicle Truck Group, Polk (11.18.2009)

I wanted to analyze sales trends and look at the impact that GM's decision to discontinue the Saturn brand will have on customer loyalty. More specifically, have Saturn owners defected from GM at a higher rate this year? What are Saturn owners likely to purchase when they return to market for their next new vehicle purchase?

From January 2004 – December 2008 over 56% of Saturn owners were loyal to GM, with nearly 30% defecting to Asian brands. During this same time period Saturn maintained a make loyalty rate of 41%. Incidentally, the Saturn ION won a Polk Automotive Loyalty Award for 4 years straight for the 2004-2007 model years.

While Saturn owners have previously demonstrated strong loyalty towards both the brand and GM as a manufacturer, the story changed dramatically in the first 6 months of 2009. Defections to Asian brands are up 22% and loyalty to GM is down 16%, driven largely by a sharp decline in Saturn brand loyalty. Honda and Chevrolet occupied 3 of the top 10 defection destinations with the Honda Civic being the primary destination of Saturn owner defection.

If the results from the first six months of 2009 are any indication of what we can expect in the future, then less than 50% of current Saturn owners will remain loyal to GM and more than a third will defect to Asian imports with a significant percentage of them choosing Honda.

Posted by Lonnie Miller, Director of Industry Analysis, Polk (11.16.2009)

As I was reading my colleague Mark Pauze's piece on Asian Americans and the U.S Auto Market, the table which listed the Asian OEMs, got my attention. It seemed the Asian Americans were heavily into Asian makes. But how do they compare with the rest of the population?

So I used PolkInsight to pull some numbers:
The average distribution of new registrations in the U.S. is something like 50% Asian, 40% Domestic, and 10% European makes. Both African American households, and Eastern/Western European households in the U.S. fall in line with that average.

The second group based on the percentage distribution, which includes Eurasians, Hispanic, and Pacific Islanders had an average distribution of 60% Asian, 25% Domestic, and 15% European makes.

Finally, the Asians lead a group of their own with 75% Asian, 10% Domestic, and 15% European makes. The interesting part isn't only that Asian Americans buy overwhelmingly Asian makes, but that they are the only group along with Middle Eastern American households where Domestic makes gets the 3rd place in purchase preference.

What does this all mean?

• A dealer candidate may want to think twice before opening a Ford or GM dealer in a prominently Asian American neighborhood
• In terms of lead management, a lead coming to an Asian OEM from an Asian American household might have to be scored a lot higher than any other ethnicity in terms of possibility of a sale

Interesting stuff!

*Data Source: PolkInsight, new retail registrations CYTD August 2009
Percentages are generously rounded and approximate

Posted by Cenk Hepaktan, Global Product Strategist, Polk (11.13.2009)

So there I was, sitting in my car at a local quick lube establishment, trying to stay awake, when I remembered I needed new wiper blades. I asked the attendant, who checked his stock and sadly told me he did not have blades that would fit my car. WHAT? How could that be? Sure my car is 12 years old...and a model that is no longer being built...by a brand that no longer exists. I still have the car and I still need to maintain it. I need this car, because I’m about to pass it down to my son as his first car. But I digress.

So why didn’t this oil change place have my wiper blades? They should know that there is a 12-year old Geo Prism in the area. It's basic parts and service etiquette! As a Polk employee I was curious to see what our vehicle population database said. So I did some research and there are 1,178 '97 Geo Prisms in the Detroit DMA. And nobody has a wiper blade for them?

But, maybe I'm being too harsh. The idea of stocking up for one specific vehicle is probably unreasonable, especially with all of the automotive industry challenges the aftermarket is currently facing. Yet, inventory efficiency is critical for automotive aftermarket companies. I know because I’ve been very fortunate to have met several companies that have implemented exceptional inventory management systems. These are the winners of Polk's Inventory Efficiency Award. How good are they? Check out their award-winning projects at: http://usa.polk.com/Industries/AfterMkt/videos.htm.

Want a deeper dive? Check out this case study about Uni-Select, a large automotive parts distributor who worked with Polk to develop an e-modeling tool to save their customers time and money. I think you will be impressed.

And hopefully the next time you need a car part—it will be in stock!

Posted by Jeffrey Stone, Senior Marketing Specialist, Polk (11.12.2009)

This has been a difficult year with many automotive industry challenges; consequently, marketing budgets have been cut significantly. I attended EquipAuto 2009 for the fifth time as a visitor, and the second time as an exhibitor. I must say that the show left me with a funny feeling.

Despite rumors of cancellation, the exhibition took place from the 13th to the 18th of October in the North of Paris. The limited number of exhibitors meant that the surface was reduced from six to two halls. I was even more surprised to discover that these two halls were not full. Last minute budget shortages left so many holes, it was like navigating your way through a piece of Swiss cheese. It really was unusual to have such a low turnout of exhibitors, yet the increased visibility worked to our advantage. The attendants could spend time on stands, discussing the technologies and the innovations.

The event included the traditional tooling, servicing and hardware exhibitors showing usual products supported by new sales concepts -- those mainly acting in the independent aftermarket. I've noticed the growing importance of computers in the traditional parts & service industry. The image of the greasy mechanic dressed in blue is quickly being replaced by a clean consultant, checking databases and launching programs to give you the expected answers and service for your car.

I noticed something else different – it seems the first steps are being taken to follow the path required by the many new regulations for environmentally-friendly cars. After years of heavy cars and big engines, we are living through a major change to more efficient, lighter, and safer cars. And to support that, parts and service suppliers brought new things to the table -- new technologies that go along with drastic reductions of carbon emissions. I’m talking about the growing number of dry cleaning solutions, the LED suppliers, the catalytic converters fabricants, etc. Innovations are following the evolution of cars. The more than necessary reaction and adaptation to change within the industry is finally here. It is costly, but the adaptation to the upcoming cars is necessary, especially since the scrappage premiums and the CO2 regulations in Europe are accelerating the phenomenon. Although, the crisis been difficult on the industry, the creativity and innovation remain!

Posted by Bertrand Rakoto, Analyst for Marketing and Consulting, Polk (11.11.2009)

The Ford Ka minicar, popular in Europe, will not be sold in the U.S. In an article by Automotive News released on November 9, Alan Mulally said the Ka is too small for American tastes. Aside from me immediately agreeing with him, I thought of the recent minicar analysis I wrote titled, "Will Super Small Cars Generate Super Small Sales". The market for minicars in the U.S. is small -- the segment is not forecasted to grow greater than 1% of the U.S. market. If I were an OEM prioritizing my U.S. lineup for the next 5 years, I would consider skipping the minicar segment and focusing on the B segment and the crossovers. Yet Fiat, GM, BMW, Hyundai, Toyota, and Volkswagen are all planning launches within the next 5 years, so there must be some common rationale for offering a minicar.

All this makes me wonder...

• Are so many manufacturers launching minicars to ensure they meet the new CAFE standards?
• Will the automotive forecast hold true or will the American consumer start demanding minicars and if so, will the OEMs be ready?
• Is Ford trying to make the most of the Fiesta launch in early 2010 and drive more volume by not launching a minicar?
• Or is Alan Mulally right and the B segment vehicles are the smallest cars Americans will purchase?

What do you think?

Posted by Margaret Zewatsky, Global Market Analyst, Polk (11.10.2009)

The other day, I came across this news article:

First thing that came to my mind after reading the article was whether we were researching this feature in our price and specification database or not. You see we collect over 800 data points like this regarding vehicles globally. And it is my job as the product strategist to make sure we collect the right specifications data. The definition of "right" is that the researched data is useful for the consumer or the vehicle product/pricing analyst. Furthermore, I also need to make sure the specifications we collect are not just for this year or next, but will still be valuable in five years.

That brings me to my point about the "slowdown feature" mentioned in the article: all these nice little features that are currently being monopolized by telematics systems, will be replaced by applications in smart phones. If you look at a telematics system, it is a combination of GPS, cell phone, and the ability to communicate with the vehicle computer. The first two are readily available on smart phones today. The only missing piece is a data-port where an attached smart phone can connect to the vehicle computer. When an iPhone can link to a car's computer, there will be plenty of application developers out there who will be happy to design and develop interesting applications. They will do it better, faster and cheaper.

This obviously will have huge consequences for OnStar et al. But it will also represent some challenges for our price and specification database: it is one thing to collect vehicles specifications when they are hardware-based (e.g. Xenon lights = Available ), but it is another thing when you deal with software-based features of a vehicle. Since software downloads will be different for each vehicle owner, all we can really report will be whether "access to vehicle computer" is available or not.

Anyway, that is my job; your job is to decide which applications to buy on iTunes for $0.99. For fellow Michiganders, I recommend the "remote iSeatWarmer" and "Remote AC starter".

Posted by Cenk Hepaktan, Global Product Strategist, Polk (11.03.2009)

In September, I attended a session at the Interactive Advertising Bureau MIXX Conference entitled "The End of Digital Marketing." In his presentation, Google President Nikesh Arora opined that digital marketing is not a discipline unto itself, but simply a part of marketing in general. The same principle can be applied to online automotive marketing. I propose that the auto market as a whole consists of both online and offline elements, neither of which will do the job alone.

This was the theme of our presentation last week at the Polk Industry Outlook Summit 2009. I was fortunate to be joined at the podium by Julie Enzweiler, Automotive Research Director at the Nielsen Company. Our premise is simple: Automotive marketers must incorporate both online and offline research, targeting and measurement to form an effective overall marketing strategy. The pieces come together to form a complete puzzle, as illustrated below.

Take, for example, assessing the target audience and competitive set for a new vehicle being launched. We can measure the accuracy of the competitive group by examining online new vehicle shopping activity – who is shopping the vehicle, what are their demographics, and where are they located? Does this align with the intended target?

Further, what vehicles are being cross-shopped online, and does this correlate with offline conquesting & defection behavior? We took a look at the Honda Insight as an example and confirmed that there is, in fact, strong alignment between online and offline behavior.

*Source: Nielsen MegaPanel, Jan-Jul 2009;
**Polk Manufacturer Loyalty Excelerator™, Jan–Jul 2009

So, what does this mean for automotive marketers? Well, for starters, make sure to integrate online and offline intelligence to develop and refine your marketing plans throughout the vehicle lifecycle. There is still a tendency to create organizational silos that treat online and offline marketing as completely separate disciplines; this can severely impede your ability to leverage information across the organization.

In today's complex automotive market, we believe that companies that can break down organizational barriers and integrate information from all available sources, both online and offline, will be most successful.

On a scale of 1-10, with 1 meaning "completely separated, no integration" and 10 meaning "fully integrated, no silos," between the online and offline disciplines, how would you rate your company and why?

Inquiring minds want to know.

P.S. If you would like a copy of the presentation from our customer summit, send your company rating and contact information to me at paula_skier@polk.com.

Posted by Paula Skier, Polk, Director of Digital Product Strategy (11.2.2009)