Can minivans survive? The registration and sales data are ominous. Through the first third of this year, only 88,328 minivans have been registered to individual consumers according to Polk new vehicle retail registration data. That's down 18% from a year ago in an overall industry that is up 10%. The minivan segment's share of the retail new vehicle industry is now just 3.28%, down more than a point in just the past 12 months. For all of 2009, minivans accounted for just 3.71% of the market, a little more than half the segment share of 6.07% five years ago. Back in 2000, minivan sales* made up 7.9% of the market, and the Dodge Caravan/Grand Caravan ranked number #11 in sales among all models.
There are only seven minivans on the market now, and that is being generous because one of the seven, the Nissan Quest, has only 195 retail registrations through April 2010 CYTD. This model count is down by more than half from 17 in 2005. Further, just four of the current models – Honda Odyssey, Toyota Sienna, Dodge Caravan and Chrysler Town & Country – account for 92% of all minivan registrations. Even as these four models grab exceptionally high shares of the segment, their volumes will continue to dwindle if the segment further declines. At some point it would seem to be hard to financially justify product programs with such low volumes. Also, the U.S. automotive market is now being deluged with more and more crossovers and new designs that don’t easily fit into any segment, putting continued pressure on the traditional minivan design. One of the new designs gaining traction in the retail marketplace is the true small van exemplified by the Mazda5.
Toyota has just launched a re-designed Sienna, a new Odyssey is imminent, and Nissan claims a new Quest is on the way, but it's hard to imagine that we will continue to see such major product programs in what is rapidly becoming a small niche of the market.
Do you think OEMs will still be offering traditional minivans in 2015?
Posted by Tom Libby, PolkInsight Advisor, Polk (07.26.2010)
*Source: 2001 Automotive News Market Data Book
There are only seven minivans on the market now, and that is being generous because one of the seven, the Nissan Quest, has only 195 retail registrations through April 2010 CYTD. This model count is down by more than half from 17 in 2005. Further, just four of the current models – Honda Odyssey, Toyota Sienna, Dodge Caravan and Chrysler Town & Country – account for 92% of all minivan registrations. Even as these four models grab exceptionally high shares of the segment, their volumes will continue to dwindle if the segment further declines. At some point it would seem to be hard to financially justify product programs with such low volumes. Also, the U.S. automotive market is now being deluged with more and more crossovers and new designs that don’t easily fit into any segment, putting continued pressure on the traditional minivan design. One of the new designs gaining traction in the retail marketplace is the true small van exemplified by the Mazda5.
Toyota has just launched a re-designed Sienna, a new Odyssey is imminent, and Nissan claims a new Quest is on the way, but it's hard to imagine that we will continue to see such major product programs in what is rapidly becoming a small niche of the market.
Do you think OEMs will still be offering traditional minivans in 2015?
Posted by Tom Libby, PolkInsight Advisor, Polk (07.26.2010)
*Source: 2001 Automotive News Market Data Book
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