Holding on for the Longer Haul

Monday, March 15, 2010 by Lonnie Miller

I did a brief interview for a public radio program last week and they asked me about people and their ownership patterns of cars and trucks. Specifically, they wanted to know if people were hanging onto their wheels longer and why. Short answer: "Yes."

Americans Continue to Hold Onto Vehicles Longer

 

The trend we've seen over the last eight years is pretty stark. As new and used vehicle sales in the U.S. have taken a hit in recent years, the chances that we'll hold onto our vehicle for longer periods of time has definitely risen. In late 2001, the average number of months we Americans held onto a new car or truck was 34.2 months. As of September 2009, it was over 60 months. Same pattern, but at different levels, apply for used vehicles, too. Why? How?

  1. The economy helped this, but it's not the only reason. I won't elaborate on the old news of what a recession does to individual spending in the auto market. But that's not the only contributor motivating you and I to hold onto our vehicles longer.
  2. Financing. Leasing options were more difficult to come by in 2009, particularly as Chrysler Finance and GMAC withdrew from this type of activity. That hurts the "churn" of someone being able to move from a temporary owned vehicle into another one. Plus, there are more deals out there where you can finance for longer term lengths. You've heard of 72 month car loans? They're growing. That'll add to the average ownership length. I found an article from LendingTree dated 2007 citing the beginning of this pattern.
  3. Warranties and extended warranties. Automakers are covering their powertrains for longer periods of time and bumper to bumper warranties are also growing. Go talk to a dealer and they'll be happy to sell you an extended warranty as well. Add another factor to my motivation to hang on to 'ol Betsy.
  4. Vehicle durability is rising. While perceived durability and reliability may be an issue for some brands, consumer research shows that more and more brands are on par with one another regarding their overall product quality ratings. That is a systematic factor allowing you and I to deal with the same set of wheels for a longer period of time.

The trend bodes well for the automotive aftermarket. (Repair business is good - have you checked out AutoZone's stock lately?) It does suppress the annual sales rate for new sales, but if you are a franchised dealer, can you think of a better reason to have for building a customer retention game plan for your service business? I can't.

Posted by Lonnie Miller, Vice President, Marketing & Industry Analysis, Polk


Customer Loyalty - It's a Close Race

Monday, January 18, 2010 by Lonnie Miller

Last week we recognized winners of Polk's annual Automotive Loyalty Awards. One category that gets a lot of attention by our customers is the overall "Make Loyalty" category which basically recognizes superior customer loyalty to an OEM's brand. Since many of the automakers have multiple divisions (i.e., makes or brands), they like to see how consumers react to these separate entities due to the unique position they try to create in the marketplace. This year, Honda won for the U.S. market. But by how much? And how many more repeat sales would have been needed by other brands to beat this year's winner? The point of these questions is an estimation process can be used by automotive marketing managers to figure out what the sales mix needs to be in order to help them predict how they'll help their companies reach their overall sales targets.

How Close Was Each Brand to Beating Honda's Make Loyalty Rate in 2009?

For the 2009 model year, the average make loyalty rate was 44.53%. Honda's make loyalty rate was 54.86%. Toyota missed beating this rate by 0.15 percentage points and Ford missed it by 0.74 percentage points. If I look at the brands, including Honda, that had an above average industry make loyalty rate, there are a total of 10 of them.

But here's what's intriguing to me: is there an "efficiency thing" going on for some brands? Meaning, what dynamic allows a relatively few more sales from past customers to make some brands "win" while other brands need far more sales from past customers to get the same outcome?

Take Subaru, for instance. They missed beating Honda by 6.03 percentage points. But they only needed another 3,914 sales from past customers to exceed Honda's make loyalty of 54.86%. Now if you're Subaru and you only sell just north of 200,000 units in the U.S., yielding another 3,900 units isn't an easy task. But it's worth noting what sales volume deficits exist in order to possibly reach a loyalty target. Now a brand like Chevrolet needed 27,781 additional past customer sales to make them win, yet Chevrolet's overall gap (5.10 percentage points) from beating Honda was smaller than Subaru's (6.03 percentage points). Cross-town rival, Toyota, missed getting the top spot by 849 sales from past customers. In these examples, we have two large volume OEMs and one relatively small volume OEM. So it's not always a size issue that creates the disparities I'm highlighting.

The point is that when companies set targets for sales, much of this will come from past customers. And if there are specific loyalty targets established, managers can conduct a sensitivity analysis to estimate "what's needed" to hit the number. Awards are something to be proud of, but more importantly, hitting sales targets that are built on a bit of science with the use of consumer research and knowing industry trends can make hitting targets a more plausible effort. Here's to 2010... may the best, and most efficient, brand win.

Posted by Lonnie Miller, Director, Industry Analysis, Polk (01.18.2010)

One Ford...One Symbol

Monday, January 11, 2010 by Lonnie Miller
I sat in on Ford Motor Company's press conference this morning at the 2010 North American International Auto Show. They started off the presentation by emphasizing their laser sharp focus on how the company is running: "One Team...One Plan...One Goal...One Ford." All of that is nice, but what caught me off guard was the use of one symbol that appeared on the stage floor during their entire press conference: the iconic "on/off" symbol. Eventually, it flew away as the new 2011 Ford Focus rose from beneath the floor.

Ford's automotive marketing messages to the public have greatly centered on how their cars and trucks fit with our personal lifestyle. The Sync is the most notorious system that most of you probably know about that supports this goal. The point is that Ford is taking the automobile and making it part of what you and I do every day. That's to say, my mobile devices, my music, my fundamental desire to stay connected with everything and everyone while I (safely) drive their product is a real option. And it looks really good for all types of buyers, young and old.

If you pay any attention to consumer electronics, we know through watchful consumer research and other sales trends that cars and e-gadgets have converged. Ford is going to capitalize on this human desire to make both systems work, and it seems like it's a good bet for their product strategy.

On/Off switches....Blue Oval...stay tuned. I'm excited for them.

Posted by Lonnie Miller, Director of Industry Analysis, Polk (01.11.2010)

From the SAA Outlook Conference - Electric Vehicles and Consumer Demand

Monday, January 11, 2010 by Margaret Zewatsky
I'm listening to the speakers at the SAA Outlook conference and one of the speakers, John Casesa, from Casesa Shapiro Group mentioned that there is research to support the demand for "clean cars" which is fueling new technologies such as those seen in Electric Vehicles (EVs). But the sales trend for EVs is predicted to be less than 1 percent of the market in the near term. With an anticipated price of $40K, the Chevy Volt's price may decrease the number of potential buyers. Meanwhile, the lack of supporting infrastructure for EVs may also scare off potential buyers.

This year's Detroit Auto Show is said to be all about electric vehicles, and EVs represent an exciting revolutionary way to create clean cars, but is there volume to support the new EV technology expenses? Bob Lutz (a speaker at tonight's SAA conference) said the Volt has future sales potential of 50-60,000 units a year, and serves as a symbol of the new GM. The Volt technology will work its way into future GM models, but will the volume of these and other OEM vehicles be enough to push EV sales past 1 percent?

Posted by Margaret Zewatsky, Global Market Analyst, Polk (01.10.2010)

Where's My Part?

Thursday, November 12, 2009 by Guest Blogger

So there I was, sitting in my car at a local quick lube establishment, trying to stay awake, when I remembered I needed new wiper blades. I asked the attendant, who checked his stock and sadly told me he did not have blades that would fit my car. WHAT? How could that be? Sure my car is 12 years old...and a model that is no longer being built...by a brand that no longer exists. I still have the car and I still need to maintain it. I need this car, because I’m about to pass it down to my son as his first car. But I digress.

So why didn’t this oil change place have my wiper blades? They should know that there is a 12-year old Geo Prism in the area. It's basic parts and service etiquette! As a Polk employee I was curious to see what our vehicle population database said. So I did some research and there are 1,178 '97 Geo Prisms in the Detroit DMA. And nobody has a wiper blade for them?

But, maybe I'm being too harsh. The idea of stocking up for one specific vehicle is probably unreasonable, especially with all of the automotive industry challenges the aftermarket is currently facing. Yet, inventory efficiency is critical for automotive aftermarket companies. I know because I’ve been very fortunate to have met several companies that have implemented exceptional inventory management systems. These are the winners of Polk's Inventory Efficiency Award. How good are they? Check out their award-winning projects at: http://usa.polk.com/Industries/AfterMkt/videos.htm.

Want a deeper dive? Check out this case study about Uni-Select, a large automotive parts distributor who worked with Polk to develop an e-modeling tool to save their customers time and money. I think you will be impressed.

And hopefully the next time you need a car part—it will be in stock!

Posted by Jeffrey Stone, Senior Marketing Specialist, Polk (11.12.2009)

The Future of Telematics Features

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 by Cenk Hepaktan

The other day, I came across this news article:

First thing that came to my mind after reading the article was whether we were researching this feature in our price and specification database or not. You see we collect over 800 data points like this regarding vehicles globally. And it is my job as the product strategist to make sure we collect the right specifications data. The definition of "right" is that the researched data is useful for the consumer or the vehicle product/pricing analyst. Furthermore, I also need to make sure the specifications we collect are not just for this year or next, but will still be valuable in five years.

That brings me to my point about the "slowdown feature" mentioned in the article: all these nice little features that are currently being monopolized by telematics systems, will be replaced by applications in smart phones. If you look at a telematics system, it is a combination of GPS, cell phone, and the ability to communicate with the vehicle computer. The first two are readily available on smart phones today. The only missing piece is a data-port where an attached smart phone can connect to the vehicle computer. When an iPhone can link to a car's computer, there will be plenty of application developers out there who will be happy to design and develop interesting applications. They will do it better, faster and cheaper.

This obviously will have huge consequences for OnStar et al. But it will also represent some challenges for our price and specification database: it is one thing to collect vehicles specifications when they are hardware-based (e.g. Xenon lights = Available ), but it is another thing when you deal with software-based features of a vehicle. Since software downloads will be different for each vehicle owner, all we can really report will be whether "access to vehicle computer" is available or not.

Anyway, that is my job; your job is to decide which applications to buy on iTunes for $0.99. For fellow Michiganders, I recommend the "remote iSeatWarmer" and "Remote AC starter".

Posted by Cenk Hepaktan, Global Product Strategist, Polk (11.03.2009)

How Does Your Company "Integ-RATE"?

Monday, November 2, 2009 by Paula Skier

In September, I attended a session at the Interactive Advertising Bureau MIXX Conference entitled "The End of Digital Marketing." In his presentation, Google President Nikesh Arora opined that digital marketing is not a discipline unto itself, but simply a part of marketing in general. The same principle can be applied to online automotive marketing. I propose that the auto market as a whole consists of both online and offline elements, neither of which will do the job alone.

This was the theme of our presentation last week at the Polk Industry Outlook Summit 2009. I was fortunate to be joined at the podium by Julie Enzweiler, Automotive Research Director at the Nielsen Company. Our premise is simple: Automotive marketers must incorporate both online and offline research, targeting and measurement to form an effective overall marketing strategy. The pieces come together to form a complete puzzle, as illustrated below.

Take, for example, assessing the target audience and competitive set for a new vehicle being launched. We can measure the accuracy of the competitive group by examining online new vehicle shopping activity – who is shopping the vehicle, what are their demographics, and where are they located? Does this align with the intended target?

Further, what vehicles are being cross-shopped online, and does this correlate with offline conquesting & defection behavior? We took a look at the Honda Insight as an example and confirmed that there is, in fact, strong alignment between online and offline behavior.

*Source: Nielsen MegaPanel, Jan-Jul 2009;
**Polk Manufacturer Loyalty Excelerator™, Jan–Jul 2009

So, what does this mean for automotive marketers? Well, for starters, make sure to integrate online and offline intelligence to develop and refine your marketing plans throughout the vehicle lifecycle. There is still a tendency to create organizational silos that treat online and offline marketing as completely separate disciplines; this can severely impede your ability to leverage information across the organization.

In today's complex automotive market, we believe that companies that can break down organizational barriers and integrate information from all available sources, both online and offline, will be most successful.

On a scale of 1-10, with 1 meaning "completely separated, no integration" and 10 meaning "fully integrated, no silos," between the online and offline disciplines, how would you rate your company and why?

Inquiring minds want to know.

P.S. If you would like a copy of the presentation from our customer summit, send your company rating and contact information to me at paula_skier@polk.com.

Posted by Paula Skier, Polk, Director of Digital Product Strategy (11.2.2009)

C'mon Dealers - Drink the Kool-Aid!

Thursday, October 22, 2009 by Lonnie Miller

If you're a dealer, here's a tip for you: read the book by Chris Brogan and Julien Smith, "Trust Agents". If you're wondering about improving your company's image and how to influence customers via online methods, you will find it highly useful. This is not just theory-- it's a "meat and potatoes get-stuff-done" book! It's about building a better reputation with your constituents in the context of the web and social media tools.

Am I getting kick-backs on this book? Nope. It just stood out to me after co-presenting last week at the DrivingSales Executive Summit that there is so much auto retailers can do to build better relationships with their customers. Here's a compelling fact: In research done by our firm, U.S. auto brands representing over 52% of all personal sales only saw a combined dealer loyalty rate of 30% in 2008. That means 7 out of 10 owners at a dealership for these top brands went to another store. One area I see that baffles many of us is the lost sales in the service bays among dealers...in a time when owners are holding their vehicles for an average of 9 months longer (comparing the last 6 years). Can you say, "How can I get more parts and service revenue?"

Okay. I'm not trying to be a "Monday Morning Quarterback" but there are really some good digital marketing and social media ideas out there to help retail sales build momentum. Just read the book. You won't be sorry.

Posted by Lonnie Miller, Director of Industry Analysis, Polk (10.22.2009)

Why Buy the Same Auto Brand? Product is King.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 by Dan Zetu

Recently, the importance of customer loyalty in automotive marketing has skyrocketed due to the increased proportion of loyalty sales among total industry sales. Beyond measuring customer loyalty, OEMs and dealers need to understand what drives consumers' decisions to repurchase the same brand. Here at Polk, we attempted to uncover some of the drivers of repurchase intentions through a consumer research study we carried out this past spring.

In this study, we asked consumers who bought a new vehicle during the past three years what the likelihood is that they will repurchase a vehicle of the same brand next time they return to market, based on their ownership experience. We also asked them how satisfied they were with a series of factors pertaining to their purchase and ownership experience that we considered as potential influencers behind their repurchase decision.

These influencing factors were grouped into three major categories:

  1. Product (brand affinity, product quality, performance, safety, fuel economy, workmanship, drive quality)
  2. Customer relations (sales process, customer communications)
  3. Monetary (purchase price, sales incentives, financing, cost of ownership)

Our analytical model revealed that product attributes are the most important drivers. Sales process and customer communications also emerged as highly influential, which reinforces the notion that a positive experience during the sales process has the potential to drive loyalty and also highlights the need for constant communication with customers.

Within the product category, fuel economy is a significant attribute that drives repurchase intention, though it is also directly related to the cost of ownership. Purchase price is perhaps less influential than we expected, although there are other monetary aspects that are important such as incentives, cost of ownership and indirectly, fuel economy. A diagram of the derived importance of repurchase drivers is shown below. More detailed study findings are forthcoming in a paper to be published shortly. Stay tuned.

  

Posted by Dan Zetu, Analytic Consultant, Polk (10.06.09)

Asymmetrical Vehicles – Just to Stand Out?

Friday, October 2, 2009 by Guest Blogger

I was driving North on I-75 in Metro Detroit the other week when I saw my first Nissan Cube – I did the double take and then followed it for a few miles just to make sure I wasn’t seeing things. OK – it really isn't symmetrical back there, is it? OEMs have been known to release vehicles with minor differences from side to side, but Nissan is the first one that stands out in my memory as delivering a vehicle with intentional, significant, 'in your face', structural differences. Why?

I was curious so I did a little more research into the Cube. It appears that the differences are not structural at all. The rear glass has metal on both sides and a complete frame that it fits into. It's wrapped in glass on one side but not on the other. Basically this is just a styling feature. The wrap-around rear window brings in more light and provides better visibility for the driver. The rear hatch opens from the side rather than the top like a traditional hatch, which is also interesting. It may help those who struggle to reach a fully opened traditional hatch and may be easier to  access in certain confined parking locations.

Personally, I quite like it – designing outside the box (it's called the Cube – get it?). But I know I'm not a conventional buyer – I want a diesel and I buy for functionality and economy. I'm not looking for 22" rims and towing capacity. My non-conventional taste was re-enforced when my colleague came in and saw the Cube on my screen. "That's almost as ugly as the Aztec!"  Incidentally, I drove the Aztec for 3 years.

The well-equipped Nissan Cube has a starting price of only $14k. I would personally be running to the dealer right now if I were in the market for a new vehicle. Any Cube drivers out there? What can you tell me about your experience so far?

Posted by Chris Royle, Director, Global Product Strategy, Polk (10.02.09)

   

Risky Business for Auto Insurance Underwriters

Wednesday, September 30, 2009 by Guest Blogger

Last week I attended the 40th annual Society of Insurance Research (SIR) conference in Orlando. Setup for those of us following research issues in the insurance industry, they did a nice job of breaking the show up into topics so that multiple views could be shared. Overall, it's one more venue to talk about broader industry challenges when it comes to insuring people who drive vehicles.

They had two paths you could take based on your interest or job focus: (1) catastrophe overview and catastrophe insurance or (2) insurance product development. After listening to many speakers and sitting through numerous sessions, I realized that the industry is continuously looking for the "next innovation" with regards to rating and underwriting. The one thing I have learned in the auto insurance industry is that everything is about risk. "Are you a good risk or bad risk?", "How do we determine risk?" A number of the presenters discussed the evolution of product development for the insurance category, where it is today and that as you develop insurance products, they must be measured constantly. But the thing that really caught my attention was the chatter about predictive models.

The insurance industry constantly talks about these analytical tools called "predictive models". This is an industry that does a great amount of analytics because it is a data-driven industry. They are willing to test external data to determine if they can find correlations to risk. Credit scores are a good example of this, although some states allow its use and some do not. At the conference, the predictive models that everyone touted required additional data. Specifically, I got the sense that it was third-party, non-insurance data that would be sought after. Yet no one would say what data they had tested or could be tested.

In my mind, it's time to look at WHAT someone is insuring in addition to WHO they are as a person, per se. There's certainly value in knowing information about the car or truck that is tied to the person. What if you knew how many owners a vehicle had or when it last switched owners? Is this valuable? It's worth debating. Your thoughts?

Posted by Matt Safran, Account Manager, Business and Insurance Group, Polk (09.30.09)

Advertising at 60 Miles Per Hour

Wednesday, September 16, 2009 by Therran Oliphant

It is almost as if a page has been taken off of the NASCAR sheet metal, stretched out and applied to the side of a van trailer via heat gun appliqué - literally. In recent months, it seems as though there are fleets and advertisers willing to use the vast roadway system, in the form of heavy and medium duty truck van trailers, to promote their brands. This growing trend is moving the needle for some companies, while supplying incremental revenue within the commercial vehicle market.

 

 

For too long, heavy duty trucks have just been behemoths on the road catching the curses and impatience of non-commercial drivers. The dots were never connected; "full truck + safe delivery = merchandise in stores." Maybe now the equation will be made more clear, giving the commercial truck driver a little more respect for transporting the nation's goods.

One study, conducted by Truck Ads LLC®, showed that 90% of people viewing commercial vehicle ads had favorable images of the brand. While that is great for the advertiser, some truck outdoor advertising agencies are offering drivers and fleets up to $10,000 a year for the use of their trailer space. With gas and maintenance costs perpetually rising, transportation companies, fleets and the owner operator could all benefit from this kind of additional revenue, with gas and maintenance costs.

Truck Ads® also boasts excellent ad rates, offering a good bang for your advertising buck. The cost per thousand is 50% less expensive than Bus and 0.6% the cost of Direct Mail. I love the idea, because it truly capitalizes on catching captive audiences in a passive manner. Plus, it is economical for the advertiser and highly geographically targetable.

Media Rates Comparison Chart (Cost Per Thousand)

Source: Truck Ads LLC®

Measurement is made easy with technology, as GPS units measure Gross Ratings Points (GRPs) based on the vehicles' location. Thus, the advertiser can keep real-time statistics about the number of people viewing their ads, and match that up to sales and product inquiry numbers to evaluate campaign effectiveness. Advertisers can further the campaign effectiveness by researching registrations of vehicles in the Designated Market Areas (DMA) that contain vehicle concentrations most likely owned by their demographic targets.

Under the stress test of necessary components for quality advertising, advertising on Commercial Vehicle Trailers hits the mark at high speed.

Posted by Therran Oliphant, Account Representative, Commercial Vehicle Truck Group, Polk (09.16.2009)

Diesel Dilemma in the U.S.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009 by Guest Blogger

Why don't small diesel cars get bought or sold in the U.S.? The last time you were in Europe up to 40% of the cars driving next to you were diesels. They were getting up to 60 MPG and didn’t have complex recharging systems or heavy batteries. Could you tell? They weren’t smoking, they didn’t sound like an F350, they were probably going to last longer than the petrol version next to them and they are great mid and small sized cars. This industry trend seems almost absent in the U.S. consumer marketplace.

If you could buy the new Taurus as a Turbo Diesel and get 40 MPG, would you? If you could buy the same Saab, Audi or BMW that you buy here in the U.S. today and get double the mileage with none of the hybrid costs or future headaches of replacing batteries – would you? I know I would.

If you wouldn't buy one, why not? Most of these vehicles have been engineered to meet U.S. vehicle safety and crash standards. The diesel that you can buy here in the U.S. is now clean enough to put in their highly tuned engines without destroying them. What is stopping the OEMs from bringing them over by the boatload? VW is making a start – their TDIs appear to be selling well but this is a small manufacturer with few models. Is it really public opinion of diesels that is driving manufacturer behavior? Has there been no consumer research to gauge loyalty for this forgotten automotive engine segment? Or are the manufacturers overstating consumer concern and missing a huge opportunity to improve U.S. fuel consumption on new vehicles... and limiting consumer choices? I know that when I buy my next vehicle, it will be a diesel since I commute 86 miles to work each day.

Posted by Chris Royle, Director, Global Product Strategy, Polk (09.15.09)

Will Flex Fuel Be Scrapped?

Friday, September 11, 2009 by Guest Blogger

Look out E85 owners – you may have a vintage model in your driveway. At the 2009 SAA Strategic Planning Summit last week, two presenters spoke about regulatory issues that are being addressed by decision-makers in D.C. right now that will affect upcoming industry trends. The California Air Resource Board (CARB) approved the Low Carbon Fuel Standard earlier this year which forces fuel producers to lower their product's "carbon intensity" by 10 percent by 2020. This approval comes after a University of Minnesota ethanol research study that suggested corn-based ethanol, which much of the U.S. ethanol production is dependent upon, may be more harmful to the environment than gasoline. CARB is encouraging cleaner energy options such as cellulosic ethanol, electricity and hydrogen. This attention is at a national level and I think it is going to impact automakers and their decisions to produce certain types of alternatively fueled models.

In 1998 Congress passed the Alternative Motor Fuels Act providing OEMs with credits toward the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards. This essentially kept automaker's fleet fuel economy within federal standards while still producing the big gas-guzzlers America loved. How big is this market segment? Flex fuel vehicles represent 7% of retail sales between January and July of this year. This is a 2% increase from 2008. GM has made the commitment to have one-half of its annual U.S. vehicle production be E85 or biodiesel capable by 2012. GM leads the pack with 18 flex fuel vehicles along with seven other OEMs currently offering flex fuel models. Despite all of this OEM activity around flex fuel offerings, there are still less than 2000 fueling stations across the U.S. That's a problem if an OEM wants to build natural (or "national") demand for these types of vehicles.

If corn-based ethanol as we know it today will not be supported, where does this leave the E85 investment the OEMs and fueling stations have made to date? Is E85 being scrapped for greener energy sources like electric vehicles? (For more on electric vehicles, see our latest Polk View, "Who Will Buy Tomorrow’s Electric Vehicles?") If you are an E85 owner today, where does that leave you and how will you be able to reap the rewards of having this type of flex fuel vehicle?

Posted by Margaret Zewatsky, Global Market Analyst, Polk (09.11.09)

Are Brighter Days Ahead for the U.S. Auto Industry?

Monday, August 24, 2009 by Guest Blogger

In a recent Polk View on automotive industry challenges, we looked at the impact of Chrysler's and GM's bankruptcies, brand eliminations and dealership closings on consumer attitudes and likely buying behavior. Our ongoing consumer research program painted a picture that wasn’t particularly rosy just a few months back: over two-fifths (43%) of surveyed consumers were likely to defect if their local GM or Chrysler dealer closed; one-third (35%) would be less likely to purchase a brand being discontinued and a similar proportion (34%) said an auto company bankruptcy would make them less likely to buy.

Consumer Attitudes - Impact on Purchase Consideration
Level of Agreement: I am less likely to buy because of...

Fortunately, things are starting to look a little brighter for the U.S. auto industry, with positive signs emerging in a relatively short time. GM's and Chrysler's rapid emergence from bankruptcy and the government's highly successful Cash for Clunkers program have been big factors contributing to the improvement.

While we're clearly not out of the woods yet, there are some signs of an upturn. Chrysler recently announced it's re-signing 140 dealers of the almost 800 closed under bankruptcy protection. As reported in Automotive News, dramatic cost cutting and production cuts, along with Cash for Clunkers sales, have left auto inventories at their lowest levels since 1992 and now automakers are scrambling to build more of their popular models. GM just announced that it's increasing production and calling back laid-off workers at several plants to fill the void. Retailers also report a late model used car sales boom from shoppers who didn't qualify for Cash for Clunkers and the increased traffic is driving service and maintenance business, which are both quite profitable.

Things seem to be boding well for Ford, which gained market share due to the other Detroit manufacturers' duress. Also, Toyota has trimmed its huge losses from last quarter. Economic indicators add to the optimism: the stock market's up, GDP is shrinking less than previously, unemployment is slowing, the housing market may have hit bottom and consumer confidence is showing signs of renewed life.

Let's keep our fingers crossed that the economy, a leaner and meaner GM, and Fiat’s merger with Chrysler all mean that brighter days are ahead for a smaller but "better" auto industry. What do you think? Are things improving for the U.S. auto industry?

Posted by Bruce Giffin, Corporate Market Research Manager, Polk (08.24.2009)

Cash for Clunkers' Success – Who Could Have Known?

Tuesday, August 4, 2009 by Guest Blogger
Wow...who could have ever imagined all of the buzz, national and local advertising, dealer showroom traffic, new car sales and "trickle down" business the tremendously successfully "Cash for Clunkers" (or CARS Car Allowance Rebate System) would create? Just one week after officially starting on July 24th, the program is already "out of gas," having spent all of the $1Billon of incentive money behind it. Last week, the House of Representatives quickly passed a bill providing an additional $2 billion in funding to the popular, but already cash-strapped program, but the additional funding faces a tough battle for approval in the Senate this week.

But who could have known just how popular Cash for Clunkers would be??? Early indicators included:
  • Consumer polling conducted by Polk before the program began was an early indication of its likely success, with almost two-thirds (64%) of respondents expressing interest in the program. In addition to the savings, improved fuel economy and a desire to help the environment were reasons consumers gave for interest in the program.
  • The huge success of similar "scrappage" programs in Europe that the U.S. Cash for Clunkers was modeled after was another early indication this program was going to be big.
  • There was so much interest in the program that the government’s CARS website for dealers to register for certification in the program crashed due to the overwhelming volume when automobile dealers across the country began enrolling on June 24th.
  • High levels of local, regional and national automotive advertising signaled the industry was ramping up and getting ready for the program well in advance.
Chrysler’s Cash for Clunkers marketing program may have been most successful of all the OEM programs since it addressed the main factor limiting participation identified in our research – people not having a clunker to trade. Three days before the program started, Chrysler used an extensive national advertising campaign to announce that it would match the government's incentive, or give zero percent financing, to those with a qualifying clunker. People with no clunker to turn in were guaranteed $4,500 - $3,500 off a new vehicle. Overwhelming demand quickly depleted dealer inventories and filled their parking lots with "clunkers," leading to an early cancellation of the program. 

While official industry sales figures are not in yet, early indications are that the Cash for Clunkers program, which ran for just one week in July, will result in some of the largest monthly sales totals over the past few years for many manufacturers, and slowed declines for others who did not have aggressive programs augmenting the government program.

While the bill's fate is in the hands of the Senate and remains uncertain, many in the auto industry are anxiously awaiting its extension so they can continue to enjoy sales levels unlike they’ve seen in years.

Posted by Bruce Giffin, Market Research Manager, Polk (08.04.2009)

Making a Case for Pragmatic Digital Investment

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 by Derek Vertin

With the rash of cost-cutting in the face of current automotive industry challenges, I feel like something should be said on behalf of digital investment. It’s no secret that the number of dealerships will drop dramatically this year and beyond. I think it's obvious that the economy has had a fairly dramatic effect on consumers, too.  But it’s more than just declining sales. The economy is also impacting how consumers are shopping for their next new car or truck.

If consumers are replacing vehicles at a slower rate, this means they are taking more time than ever to research their next purchase. Odds are they are staying away from the actual point of sale to avoid the perceived risk of being trapped by dealers desperate to get a sale. Instead, consumers are doing vehicle research via the Internet from the comfort of their homes.

With consumers spending more time online gathering information, digital marketing has become significantly more important. Yet I get the sense that some manufacturers and dealer groups are considering reductions in their online investment (e.g., less content and fewer features). 

Closing even one brick and mortar store is a difficult decision. The decision to cut digital investment is not one that should be taken lightly, either. In this difficult time, carmakers and retailers should make every effort to maintain or even increase their investment in their customers' online experience. Otherwise, they risk losing sales to dealers who realize the power and potential of digital marketing.

Posted by Derek Vertin, Product Strategist, Polk (07.22.2009)

Cash for Clunkers - What Is the Market Potential?

Monday, July 20, 2009 by Dan Zetu

The eagerly awaited Cash for Clunkers program is one of the hot topics du jour in the automotive industry. Given the current automotive industry challenges, any additional incentive program could be an instrument in enabling the recovery of auto sales. Although experts in general are skeptical of the real impact on sales trends, many in the industry are wondering how many households qualify for this new program (although the budget cap on the program will make it impossible for everyone who qualifies to participate).

Here at Polk we created a model identifying the households likely to own a vehicle that qualifies for the Cash for Clunkers program. At the same time, independently of the Cash for Clunkers model, we segmented the entire US market into groups based on the type and number of vehicles they own, age and market value of the vehicles, income and ability to pay for a new vehicle (with or without extra incentives). Based on this segmentation and the Cash for Clunkers model, we came up with a rough estimate of the program's market potential: 4 million.

Let me explain how we arrived at that number.

Roughly 11 million households are highly likely to own clunkers. However, not all of these will be able to afford a new vehicle, will be interested in taking advantage of the program or will even be aware of it. Of the 11 million clunker owners, we identified a group (about 6.5 million), that have high income and can easily afford a new car. Most likely, these people keep the clunker as an extra vehicle in their garage. It is hard to tell without further research how many of these households will actually be interested in getting another new vehicle, but a fair estimate is about 3.5 million.

Another segment of 2.5 million clunker owners have relatively low incomes and will probably be challenged in securing funding for acquiring a new vehicle, even though they may actually need one. We estimate conservatively that about 500,000 consumers from this group will actually be able to acquire a new vehicle via the program.

Whether or not the Cash for Clunkers program results in the additional 4 million sales we estimate will depend on a series of factors that are difficult to control. First, the $1 billion budget cap allocated for the program limits severely the number of customers able to take advantage of the program. Even if the budget were unlimited, some households would want to purchase new vehicles that wouldn't qualify due to poor gas mileage. Other consumers will simply not want to incur payments for an extra new vehicle, even if they can afford it, and yet others may not even be aware of the program. Even with those caveats, we believe that the potential of the Cash for Clunkers program is significant.

Posted by Dan Zetu, Analytic Consultant, Polk (07.20.2009)

Is This My Dad's Ford Taurus?

Friday, July 10, 2009 by John McBride

Is it wrong for me to be excited about the new Ford Taurus? Maybe I’m just getting old, but the Taurus always represented what my father and his friends drove . . . a boring car for the practical, budget-minded adult.

 

It’s not just me . . . it seems like a lot of people are interested in the Taurus. From what I’ve heard, the Taurus will be sporty and content-heavy. With pricing at the low end of $25 K to a fully loaded SHO at $45 K, it will appeal to a wide range of consumers. In client meetings and over discussions with friends, the Taurus keeps coming up. Media companies that count on automotive marketing dollars believe that the Taurus will be a home run and expect Ford to invest significant advertising dollars in it. Friends that drive BMWs, Toyotas and Volvos have talked about considering the Taurus for their next sedan purchase.

A combination of pent-up demand, GM and Chrysler bankruptcies, and a ‘buy American’ sentiment could make the Taurus’s July 2009 release date perfect. Automotive consumer research indicates that the public’s perception of Ford is improving due to Ford’s strong quality scores, its avoidance of government bailout funds, and the release of more exciting vehicles. If we look at the midsize sedan segment, Taurus’s major competitors include the Toyota Avalon and Chevrolet Impala . . . the buzz seems to indicate that the 2010 Taurus competes exceptionally well from a price, content and quality perspective with these makes. At the high end, the SHO could steal share from entry-level luxury buyers that traditionally consider brands such as Cadillac, Mercedes and BMW. My guess is that the Taurus is going to be a major hit.

Now the tough question . . . can I really see myself driving the same boring car dad used to drive?  I'll have to ask my kids.

Posted by John McBride, Director of Sales and Client Services, Polk (07.10.2009)

Lose a Brand...Lose a Customer

Thursday, July 2, 2009 by Lonnie Miller

I'm intrigued by what really goes through an owner's mind when they find out they have a car or truck that's discontinued.  I'm sure a lot people don't care or don't really realize a particular model is retired after a while.  It's expected, right?  But for some, a vehicle defines who they are.  And it just might irk these customers to know they bought a vehicle the brand chose to pull from the product line-up...or worse yet, they bought a vehicle from a brand that's simply going away. So when, for example, Pontiac announced they're "going adios," what do those poor Solstice convertible owners think?

There's a lot written about customer loyalty, lost customers, conquesting, etc.  But right now, when sales are down and customers are nervous about the economy, this is important stuff.  It's really important to keep good customers interested in your brand.

If I asked you whether you'd be less likely to consider a certain brand because it's being discontinued, what would you say?  Based on results this week from some consumer research we're doing, better than a third (34%) of recent vehicle owners we just interviewed say they would agree or strongly agree that they'd be less likely to consider the brand if it were going away.  Ouch.  If 34% bailed on a given brand, we'd be looking at one happy feeding frenzy for the competitors.  I guess that's why they call it conquesting.

Is loyalty to a company a given? No. Is it something that has to be given up just because of other business strains? Absolutely not. I like the old adage - "Nothing in life is worth it if you aren't willing to work for it."

 


Posted by Lonnie Miller, Director of Industry Analysis, Polk (07.02.2009)