Research

I'll spare you the details as you can see more in our latest analysis on Toyota's recall challenges from earlier this year. But if I asked you to simply vote whether the U.S. recalls significantly hurt Toyota's customer loyalty, what would you say? I'll suggest you think twice about your answer. 

Overall, Toyota seems to have weathered the storm due to a long-standing and strong product reputation. This, coupled with the way they managed individual service visits when customers came in to have the acceleration problem fixed, appears to have saved some of their customer retention concerns. All of this despite the media spotlight thrown onto them in early 2010.



There is one telling fact worth noting: a higher level of first-time Toyota buyers shied away from the brand between Q3 2009 and Q1 2010 (a period of heavy international attention on this company). This tells you that newcomers to Toyota decided to delay their purchase of this brand more so than before. However, the consumer research on this one tells us their existing customer base bounced back nicely.

While part of their "owner bridge" may have had a few chunks of cement knocked out of it from the wide-spread recalls, Toyota appears to have built one tough bridge overall. Good for now.

Posted by Lonnie Miller, Vice President, Marketing & Industry Analysis, Polk (07.13.2010)

• The Near Term Future in the Auto Space (Thilo Koslowski, Gartner)
• Integration of CRM Data and Transactional Information (Chris Cawston, SCI)
• Hyundai Motor America Positioning and Growth (David Zuchowski, Hyundai)
• Localized, Data Driven Marketing (Lucette Mercer, Comcast)
• The Evolution of Lead Scoring (Yours truly!, Polk)

I did a brief interview for a public radio program last week and they asked me about people and their ownership patterns of cars and trucks. Specifically, they wanted to know if people were hanging onto their wheels longer and why. Short answer: "Yes."

Americans Continue to Hold Onto Vehicles Longer

 

The trend we've seen over the last 8 years is pretty stark. As new and used vehicle sales in the U.S. have taken a hit in recent years, the chances that we'll hold onto our vehicle for longer periods of time has definitely risen. In late 2001, the average number of months we Americans held onto a new car or truck was 47.5 months. As of September 2009, it was over 60 months. Same pattern, but at different levels, apply for used vehicles, too. Why? How?

1. The economy helped this, but it's not the only reason. I won't elaborate on the old news of what a recession does to individual spending in the auto market. But that's not the only contributor motivating you and I to hold onto our vehicles longer.
2. Financing. Leasing options were more difficult to come by in 2009, particularly as Chrysler Finance and GMAC withdrew from this type of activity. That hurts the "churn" of someone being able to move from a temporary owned vehicle into another one. Plus, there are more deals out there where you can finance for longer term lengths. You've heard of 72 month car loans? They're growing. That'll add to the average ownership length. I found an article from LendingTree dated 2007 citing the beginning of this pattern.
3. Warranties and extended warranties. Automakers are covering their powertrains for longer periods of time and bumper to bumper warranties are also growing. Go talk to a dealer and they'll be happy to sell you an extended warranty as well. Add another factor to my motivation to hang on to 'ol Betsy.
4. Vehicle durability is rising. While perceived durability and reliability may be an issue for some brands, consumer research shows that more and more brands are on par with one another regarding their overall product quality ratings. That is a systematic factor allowing you and I to deal with the same set of wheels for a longer period of time.

The trend bodes well for the automotive aftermarket. (Repair business is good - have you checked out AutoZone's stock lately?) It does suppress the annual sales rate for new sales, but if you are a franchised dealer, can you think of a better reason to have for building a customer retention game plan for your service business? I can't.

Posted by Lonnie Miller, Vice President, Marketing & Industry Analysis, Polk

Last week we recognized winners of Polk's annual Automotive Loyalty Awards. One category that gets a lot of attention by our customers is the overall "Make Loyalty" category which basically recognizes superior customer loyalty to an OEM's brand. Since many of the automakers have multiple divisions (i.e., makes or brands), they like to see how consumers react to these separate entities due to the unique position they try to create in the marketplace. This year, Honda won for the U.S. market. But by how much? And how many more repeat sales would have been needed by other brands to beat this year's winner? The point of these questions is an estimation process can be used by automotive marketing managers to figure out what the sales mix needs to be in order to help them predict how they'll help their companies reach their overall sales targets.

How Close Was Each Brand to Beating Honda's Make Loyalty Rate in 2009?

For the 2009 model year, the average make loyalty rate was 44.53%. Honda's make loyalty rate was 54.86%. Toyota missed beating this rate by 0.15 percentage points and Ford missed it by 0.74 percentage points. If I look at the brands, including Honda, that had an above average industry make loyalty rate, there are a total of 10 of them.

But here's what's intriguing to me: is there an "efficiency thing" going on for some brands? Meaning, what dynamic allows a relatively few more sales from past customers to make some brands "win" while other brands need far more sales from past customers to get the same outcome?

Take Subaru, for instance. They missed beating Honda by 6.03 percentage points. But they only needed another 3,914 sales from past customers to exceed Honda's make loyalty of 54.86%. Now if you're Subaru and you only sell just north of 200,000 units in the U.S., yielding another 3,900 units isn't an easy task. But it's worth noting what sales volume deficits exist in order to possibly reach a loyalty target. Now a brand like Chevrolet needed 27,781 additional past customer sales to make them win, yet Chevrolet's overall gap (5.10 percentage points) from beating Honda was smaller than Subaru's (6.03 percentage points). Cross-town rival, Toyota, missed getting the top spot by 849 sales from past customers. In these examples, we have two large volume OEMs and one relatively small volume OEM. So it's not always a size issue that creates the disparities I'm highlighting.

The point is that when companies set targets for sales, much of this will come from past customers. And if there are specific loyalty targets established, managers can conduct a sensitivity analysis to estimate "what's needed" to hit the number. Awards are something to be proud of, but more importantly, hitting sales targets that are built on a bit of science with the use of consumer research and knowing industry trends can make hitting targets a more plausible effort. Here's to 2010... may the best, and most efficient, brand win.

Posted by Lonnie Miller, Director, Industry Analysis, Polk (01.18.2010)

So there I was, sitting in my car at a local quick lube establishment, trying to stay awake, when I remembered I needed new wiper blades. I asked the attendant, who checked his stock and sadly told me he did not have blades that would fit my car. WHAT? How could that be? Sure my car is 12 years old...and a model that is no longer being built...by a brand that no longer exists. I still have the car and I still need to maintain it. I need this car, because I’m about to pass it down to my son as his first car. But I digress.

So why didn’t this oil change place have my wiper blades? They should know that there is a 12-year old Geo Prism in the area. It's basic parts and service etiquette! As a Polk employee I was curious to see what our vehicle population database said. So I did some research and there are 1,178 '97 Geo Prisms in the Detroit DMA. And nobody has a wiper blade for them?

But, maybe I'm being too harsh. The idea of stocking up for one specific vehicle is probably unreasonable, especially with all of the automotive industry challenges the aftermarket is currently facing. Yet, inventory efficiency is critical for automotive aftermarket companies. I know because I’ve been very fortunate to have met several companies that have implemented exceptional inventory management systems. These are the winners of Polk's Inventory Efficiency Award. How good are they? Check out their award-winning projects at: http://usa.polk.com/Industries/AfterMkt/videos.htm.

Want a deeper dive? Check out this case study about Uni-Select, a large automotive parts distributor who worked with Polk to develop an e-modeling tool to save their customers time and money. I think you will be impressed.

And hopefully the next time you need a car part—it will be in stock!

Posted by Jeffrey Stone, Senior Marketing Specialist, Polk (11.12.2009)

The other day, I came across this news article:

First thing that came to my mind after reading the article was whether we were researching this feature in our price and specification database or not. You see we collect over 800 data points like this regarding vehicles globally. And it is my job as the product strategist to make sure we collect the right specifications data. The definition of "right" is that the researched data is useful for the consumer or the vehicle product/pricing analyst. Furthermore, I also need to make sure the specifications we collect are not just for this year or next, but will still be valuable in five years.

That brings me to my point about the "slowdown feature" mentioned in the article: all these nice little features that are currently being monopolized by telematics systems, will be replaced by applications in smart phones. If you look at a telematics system, it is a combination of GPS, cell phone, and the ability to communicate with the vehicle computer. The first two are readily available on smart phones today. The only missing piece is a data-port where an attached smart phone can connect to the vehicle computer. When an iPhone can link to a car's computer, there will be plenty of application developers out there who will be happy to design and develop interesting applications. They will do it better, faster and cheaper.

This obviously will have huge consequences for OnStar et al. But it will also represent some challenges for our price and specification database: it is one thing to collect vehicles specifications when they are hardware-based (e.g. Xenon lights = Available ), but it is another thing when you deal with software-based features of a vehicle. Since software downloads will be different for each vehicle owner, all we can really report will be whether "access to vehicle computer" is available or not.

Anyway, that is my job; your job is to decide which applications to buy on iTunes for $0.99. For fellow Michiganders, I recommend the "remote iSeatWarmer" and "Remote AC starter".

Posted by Cenk Hepaktan, Global Product Strategist, Polk (11.03.2009)

In September, I attended a session at the Interactive Advertising Bureau MIXX Conference entitled "The End of Digital Marketing." In his presentation, Google President Nikesh Arora opined that digital marketing is not a discipline unto itself, but simply a part of marketing in general. The same principle can be applied to online automotive marketing. I propose that the auto market as a whole consists of both online and offline elements, neither of which will do the job alone.

This was the theme of our presentation last week at the Polk Industry Outlook Summit 2009. I was fortunate to be joined at the podium by Julie Enzweiler, Automotive Research Director at the Nielsen Company. Our premise is simple: Automotive marketers must incorporate both online and offline research, targeting and measurement to form an effective overall marketing strategy. The pieces come together to form a complete puzzle, as illustrated below.

Take, for example, assessing the target audience and competitive set for a new vehicle being launched. We can measure the accuracy of the competitive group by examining online new vehicle shopping activity – who is shopping the vehicle, what are their demographics, and where are they located? Does this align with the intended target?

Further, what vehicles are being cross-shopped online, and does this correlate with offline conquesting & defection behavior? We took a look at the Honda Insight as an example and confirmed that there is, in fact, strong alignment between online and offline behavior.

*Source: Nielsen MegaPanel, Jan-Jul 2009;
**Polk Manufacturer Loyalty Excelerator™, Jan–Jul 2009

So, what does this mean for automotive marketers? Well, for starters, make sure to integrate online and offline intelligence to develop and refine your marketing plans throughout the vehicle lifecycle. There is still a tendency to create organizational silos that treat online and offline marketing as completely separate disciplines; this can severely impede your ability to leverage information across the organization.

In today's complex automotive market, we believe that companies that can break down organizational barriers and integrate information from all available sources, both online and offline, will be most successful.

On a scale of 1-10, with 1 meaning "completely separated, no integration" and 10 meaning "fully integrated, no silos," between the online and offline disciplines, how would you rate your company and why?

Inquiring minds want to know.

P.S. If you would like a copy of the presentation from our customer summit, send your company rating and contact information to me at paula_skier@polk.com.

Posted by Paula Skier, Polk, Director of Digital Product Strategy (11.2.2009)

If you're a dealer, here's a tip for you: read the book by Chris Brogan and Julien Smith, "Trust Agents". If you're wondering about improving your company's image and how to influence customers via online methods, you will find it highly useful. This is not just theory-- it's a "meat and potatoes get-stuff-done" book! It's about building a better reputation with your constituents in the context of the web and social media tools.

Am I getting kick-backs on this book? Nope. It just stood out to me after co-presenting last week at the DrivingSales Executive Summit that there is so much auto retailers can do to build better relationships with their customers. Here's a compelling fact: In research done by our firm, U.S. auto brands representing over 52% of all personal sales only saw a combined dealer loyalty rate of 30% in 2008. That means 7 out of 10 owners at a dealership for these top brands went to another store. One area I see that baffles many of us is the lost sales in the service bays among dealers...in a time when owners are holding their vehicles for an average of 9 months longer (comparing the last 6 years). Can you say, "How can I get more parts and service revenue?"

Okay. I'm not trying to be a "Monday Morning Quarterback" but there are really some good digital marketing and social media ideas out there to help retail sales build momentum. Just read the book. You won't be sorry.

Posted by Lonnie Miller, Director of Industry Analysis, Polk (10.22.2009)

Recently, the importance of customer loyalty in automotive marketing has skyrocketed due to the increased proportion of loyalty sales among total industry sales. Beyond measuring customer loyalty, OEMs and dealers need to understand what drives consumers' decisions to repurchase the same brand. Here at Polk, we attempted to uncover some of the drivers of repurchase intentions through a consumer research study we carried out this past spring.

In this study, we asked consumers who bought a new vehicle during the past three years what the likelihood is that they will repurchase a vehicle of the same brand next time they return to market, based on their ownership experience. We also asked them how satisfied they were with a series of factors pertaining to their purchase and ownership experience that we considered as potential influencers behind their repurchase decision.

These influencing factors were grouped into three major categories:

1. Product (brand affinity, product quality, performance, safety, fuel economy, workmanship, drive quality)
2. Customer relations (sales process, customer communications)
3. Monetary (purchase price, sales incentives, financing, cost of ownership)

Our analytical model revealed that product attributes are the most important drivers. Sales process and customer communications also emerged as highly influential, which reinforces the notion that a positive experience during the sales process has the potential to drive loyalty and also highlights the need for constant communication with customers.

Within the product category, fuel economy is a significant attribute that drives repurchase intention, though it is also directly related to the cost of ownership. Purchase price is perhaps less influential than we expected, although there are other monetary aspects that are important such as incentives, cost of ownership and indirectly, fuel economy. A diagram of the derived importance of repurchase drivers is shown below. More detailed study findings are forthcoming in a paper to be published shortly. Stay tuned.

Posted by Dan Zetu, Analytic Consultant, Polk (10.06.09)

Last week I attended the 40th annual Society of Insurance Research (SIR) conference in Orlando. Setup for those of us following research issues in the insurance industry, they did a nice job of breaking the show up into topics so that multiple views could be shared. Overall, it's one more venue to talk about broader industry challenges when it comes to insuring people who drive vehicles.

They had two paths you could take based on your interest or job focus: (1) catastrophe overview and catastrophe insurance or (2) insurance product development. After listening to many speakers and sitting through numerous sessions, I realized that the industry is continuously looking for the "next innovation" with regards to rating and underwriting. The one thing I have learned in the auto insurance industry is that everything is about risk. "Are you a good risk or bad risk?", "How do we determine risk?" A number of the presenters discussed the evolution of product development for the insurance category, where it is today and that as you develop insurance products, they must be measured constantly. But the thing that really caught my attention was the chatter about predictive models.

The insurance industry constantly talks about these analytical tools called "predictive models". This is an industry that does a great amount of analytics because it is a data-driven industry. They are willing to test external data to determine if they can find correlations to risk. Credit scores are a good example of this, although some states allow its use and some do not. At the conference, the predictive models that everyone touted required additional data. Specifically, I got the sense that it was third-party, non-insurance data that would be sought after. Yet no one would say what data they had tested or could be tested.

In my mind, it's time to look at WHAT someone is insuring in addition to WHO they are as a person, per se. There's certainly value in knowing information about the car or truck that is tied to the person. What if you knew how many owners a vehicle had or when it last switched owners? Is this valuable? It's worth debating. Your thoughts?

Posted by Matt Safran, Account Manager, Business and Insurance Group, Polk (09.30.09)

Media Rates Comparison Chart (Cost Per Thousand)

Source: Truck Ads LLC®

Measurement is made easy with technology, as GPS units measure Gross Ratings Points (GRPs) based on the vehicles' location. Thus, the advertiser can keep real-time statistics about the number of people viewing their ads, and match that up to sales and product inquiry numbers to evaluate campaign effectiveness. Advertisers can further the campaign effectiveness by researching registrations of vehicles in the Designated Market Areas (DMA) that contain vehicle concentrations most likely owned by their demographic targets.

Under the stress test of necessary components for quality advertising, advertising on Commercial Vehicle Trailers hits the mark at high speed.

Posted by Therran Oliphant, Account Representative, Commercial Vehicle Truck Group, Polk (09.16.2009)

Why don't small diesel cars get bought or sold in the U.S.? The last time you were in Europe up to 40% of the cars driving next to you were diesels. They were getting up to 60 MPG and didn’t have complex recharging systems or heavy batteries. Could you tell? They weren’t smoking, they didn’t sound like an F350, they were probably going to last longer than the petrol version next to them and they are great mid and small sized cars. This industry trend seems almost absent in the U.S. consumer marketplace.

If you could buy the new Taurus as a Turbo Diesel and get 40 MPG, would you? If you could buy the same Saab, Audi or BMW that you buy here in the U.S. today and get double the mileage with none of the hybrid costs or future headaches of replacing batteries – would you? I know I would.

If you wouldn't buy one, why not? Most of these vehicles have been engineered to meet U.S. vehicle safety and crash standards. The diesel that you can buy here in the U.S. is now clean enough to put in their highly tuned engines without destroying them. What is stopping the OEMs from bringing them over by the boatload? VW is making a start – their TDIs appear to be selling well but this is a small manufacturer with few models. Is it really public opinion of diesels that is driving manufacturer behavior? Has there been no consumer research to gauge loyalty for this forgotten automotive engine segment? Or are the manufacturers overstating consumer concern and missing a huge opportunity to improve U.S. fuel consumption on new vehicles... and limiting consumer choices? I know that when I buy my next vehicle, it will be a diesel since I commute 86 miles to work each day.

Posted by Chris Royle, Director, Global Product Strategy, Polk (09.15.09)