Light Vehicle Forecast

Nissan Targets 5% of Brazil Auto Market Share with New Facility in Brazil

Nissan just opened a new plant in Brazil, with capacity to make 200,000 light vehicles per year. Nissan has built the Livina/Grand Livina MPVs and the Frontier pick-up in a plant owned by Renault in the southern part of the country. With the new facility, they will make the March and Versa in Brazil. Previously, they were imported from Mexico, but when Brazil set limits on vehicle imports from Mexico in 2012, they had to change their strategy. The new factory, which was built in 36 months,...
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When Porsche Outsells Other German Luxury Brands in Brazil

Do you think a Jeep Grand Cherokee is a direct competitor of a Porsche Cayenne? Would you add the Volkswagen Touareg to the competitive set? Well, many Brazilian consumers do. And the results may be surprising. Let me start with the winner in the SUV/crossover segment. Land Rover is the preferred brand. The Range Rover Evoque sells over three times more than vehicle number two, the Volvo XC60. And the Freelander (LR2 in the U.S.) comes right in third place. Looking one length class above, the......
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Which Vehicles Topped Google's Search in Brazil?

When Google released its Zeitgeist 2013, a compilation of the most googled terms of the year, the Hyundai HB20 reached the top spot for the Brazilian automotive industry. It was followed by the Chevrolet Onix and Chevrolet Prisma. The new Volkswagen Golf and the Volkswagen Beetle (locally called Fusca) rounded out the Top 5. The HB20 hatchback, the Onix and the Fusca were launched late in 2012. There is no doubt the HB20 has written its success story in Brazil’s automotive history. With 3,312......
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Porsche Macan: “De-Nichification” Continues

The Porsche Macan, Porsche's all-new small crossover revealed last week in Los Angeles and to be launched in the U.S. next spring, should be a "slam dunk," given the landscape of today's new vehicle market. The small luxury crossover segment is one of the fastest-growing in the industry, with registrations more than quadrupling since 2008 and share of industry up by almost the same amount (see table below). The number of small luxury crossovers in the market has doubled from four in 2008 to...
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Will Automotive Luxury Brands Succeed in Brazil?

Do you have the impression that the Brazilian president meets the CEO of an automaker daily? Lately there have been a lot of announcements that OEMs will start – or resume – production in Brazil. This year, Honda and Mercedes-Benz announced new plants, while Audi stated it is coming back to Brazil and making cars in a VW plant where it built the A3 some years ago. VW confirmed it is finally updating the locally made Golf (currently still in its fourth generation). Last year, BMW announced its......
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August 2013: A Terrific Automotive Sales Month, Particularly for the Japanese

August U.S. new car and light truck sales were not merely good — they were extraordinary. Consider the following:
  • U.S. customers purchased 1,503,151 new cars and light trucks in August, the highest monthly volume since May 2007
  • This August total converts to an annual rate (SAAR) of 16.1 million, the highest monthly SAAR since November 2007
  • The August year-over-year increase of 17% was the highest monthly change since June 2012
  • Every manufacturer enjoyed a sales increase in August
  • August Ford...
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There are 33 New Vehicle Segments in the U.S. Market, But...

Drive on any U.S. highway for more than 10 minutes and you can't help but notice the wide variety of vehicles on the road. There appear to be dozens of colors, wheels, designs and body types from which to choose, not to mention the variety of less visible features such as engines, transmissions and connectivity technologies. A visitor to the U.S. could rightfully be overwhelmed by the plethora of different cars and light trucks on the road. Yet, a review of body type registration data reveals......
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Is there any Logic to Argentina's Auto Market?

If you follow my posts, you have read that there is not much logic in Brazil's automotive market (if not, you can follow the link at the bottom of the blog). Today, I will show that neighboring Argentina faces the same problem. Argentina is struggling with inflation. Last year, inflation was 10% according to the government, but opposition in Congress says it was 25% – the highest rate in South America and only behind Venezuela. The government is known for reporting lower inflation and higher...
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Is There any Logic to Brazil's Auto Market?

Several protests took place in Brazil during the month of June. Everything started with public transportation fares that were increased, although the increases were less than $0.10. And even after the increase was cancelled, protests kept going on, focusing on corruption, the amount spent to build stadiums for the World Cup, poor educational and health systems despite high taxes, amongst other things. (For more about the protests, see the links at the bottom of the blog.) Ironically, protests......
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Exports Hurting Production in Brazil

Tax incentives were very effective in 2012 and helped Brazil reach a new sales record of 3,573,076 light vehicles. With this success, Brazil remained the fourth largest automotive market in the world, just behind China, the United States and Japan. Polk's automotive forecast does include any changes in this ranking in 2013 when sales in Brazil are anticipated to reach 3.63 million light vehicles. However, Brazil's importance declines when we analyze production numbers. Last year, production...
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How Used Cars Are Hindering Mexico's Potential

Since January, Mexico has been able to import American and Canadian vehicles that are Model Year (MY) 2007 or older. Up until December, the limit was MY04 or older and in 2009, it was MY99 or older. In 2019, any used vehicle can be imported from the U.S. and Canada, regardless of its age. This is not a new problem: in 2006 and 2007, Mexico imported more used vehicles then it sold new cars. Although the imports cooled down last year, they gained strength again earlier in 2013. There was an...
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Will Large Cars Survive?

Mainstream large cars, such as the Avalon, Maxima, Taurus and Impala, continue to lose favor. Their combined share of the U.S. market has retreated from 5.8% in 2008 to just 3.5% in 2012 (the results were similar this past January, with the large car share declining from 4.1% a year ago to 3.9% this year). Large cars now account for a smaller slice of the U.S. market than minivans, itself an endangered species. And the number of large cars continues to decline, down from 14 in 2008 to 7 now....Re...
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Venezuela Selling 2013 Vehicles with 2009 Prices

Venezuela was all over the news last week because of the death of its president, Hugo Chávez. President Chávez passed away after a battle against cancer, which included several surgeries in Cuba. What the international media did not pay attention is to a law approved in January that affects the automotive industry. How would you react if a law determined that all new vehicles from now on should have a sticker price from the first half of 2009? Moreover, could you, the dealer network, afford...
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2009 Prices in 2013

How would you react if a law determined that all new vehicles, from now on, should have a sticker price from the first half of 2009? Moreover, could you as a dealer network afford to give back to all you customers what they paid beyond those prices between then and now? This can sound like an unrealistic scenario, but is a law approved in Venezuela. The law was create after Congress inspected and questioned OEMs, dealers and independent stores and got to the conclusion that vehicles are...
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2013 Looks Bright for U.S. New Vehicle Sales

January 2013 U.S. new light vehicle sales climbed 14% from a year ago and sales for the rest of the year are expected to climb as well, though at a more modest rate. There are several drivers of this growth, both at the macroeconomic level and within the industry itself. Consider the following:
  • Interest rates remain exceptionally low, and with the Fed promising to keep them there until unemployment declines to 6.5%, we can expect to see low rates for quite awhile. This means that OEMs and...
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GM is Relying on New Product Blitz to Halt Share Decline

The next 18 months are important for all OEMs, but perhaps more so for GM than for any of its rivals. From mid-2012 through mid-2014, GM will unveil the greatest array of all-new or re-designed vehicles in recent memory, if not in the company's history. In 2012, the company brought to market the Spark minicar, Malibu midsize sedan, Verano compact car, XTS large luxury car and the ATS compact luxury car. Coming in 2013 are new versions of the Silverado and Sierra large pickups, the full-size... Re...
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Main Markets in South America Face Protectionism Wave

South America is a very diverse continent. Brazil, its main country, forbids diesel passenger cars and speaks Portuguese, but is surrounded by Spanish speaking countries. French Guiana still belongs to France, something not very common nowadays. Consumer behavior is also different: Toyota, for example, is the market leader in Peru and has a higher share in the countries closer to the Pacific Ocean, while customer loyalty in Brazil and Argentina goes toward brands from Europe and the United...Read...
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Autos in 2013 and Beyond - Industry Trends to Watch

Many of you may be returning to work this week after an extended vacation around the holiday season. Welcome back! I'll keep this blog short and informative. It's 2013 and the world didn't end last month as the Mayans (supposedly) predicted. Given this, we can officially remove Mayan prognosticators from the category of a legitimate forecasting entity. However, Polk has a few predictions. They go something like this: 
  1. New auto sales for 2013 will jump 6.6 percent over last year. Our U.S....
Read...
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Argentina and Mexico Reach Agreement

Late in June, Argentina canceled the free-trade agreement it has had with Mexico since 2002 (as noted in my prior blog). Argentina wanted to negotiate the agreement, as Brazil successfully did with Mexico, assigning quotas to imports but Mexico did not concede. Argentina has been consistently the fifth main market for Mexican exports since 2009, although volumes jumped 177% between 2009 and 2011. Brazil went from the fourth spot in 2009 up to second place this year, even with limits to...
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Two Key Reasons Why Automotive Sales in BRIC Should Be On Your Radar

Welcome to a series of blog posts about the global automotive market based on a paper that I recently worked on with a set of colleagues that discusses important strategic questions for automotive business planners. For those of you interested in the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), this blog focuses on the question, "Will BRIC countries continue to drive organic growth in the automotive industry?" Answer: Yes! Why? Of the 38 percent jump Polk expects to see for global light... R...
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