Monday, November 25, 2013 by
The Porsche Macan, Porsche's all-new small crossover revealed last
week in Los Angeles and to be launched in the U.S. next spring,
should be a "slam dunk," given the landscape of today's new vehicle
market. The small luxury crossover segment is one of the
fastest-growing in the industry, with registrations more than
quadrupling since 2008 and share of industry up by almost the same
amount (see table below). The number of small luxury crossovers in
the market has doubled from four in 2008 to...
Wednesday, October 9, 2013 by
Do you have the impression that the Brazilian president meets the
CEO of an automaker daily? Lately there have been a lot of
announcements that OEMs will start – or resume – production in
Brazil. This year, Honda and Mercedes-Benz announced new plants,
while Audi stated it is coming back to Brazil and making cars
in a VW plant where it built the A3 some years ago. VW confirmed it
is finally updating the locally made Golf (currently still in its
fourth generation). Last year, BMW announced its......
Tuesday, September 10, 2013 by
August U.S. new car and light truck sales were not merely good —
they were extraordinary. Consider the following:
- U.S. customers purchased 1,503,151 new cars and light trucks in
August, the highest monthly volume since May 2007
- This August total converts to an annual rate (SAAR) of 16.1
million, the highest monthly SAAR since November 2007
- The August year-over-year increase of 17% was the highest
monthly change since June 2012
- Every manufacturer enjoyed a sales increase in August
- August Ford...
Wednesday, August 28, 2013 by
Drive on any U.S. highway for more than 10 minutes and you
can't help but notice the wide variety of vehicles on the road.
There appear to be dozens of colors, wheels, designs and body types
from which to choose, not to mention the variety of less visible
features such as engines, transmissions and connectivity
technologies. A visitor to the U.S. could rightfully be overwhelmed
by the plethora of different cars and light trucks on the road.
Yet, a review of body type registration data reveals......
Monday, July 22, 2013 by
If you follow my posts, you have read that there is not much logic
in Brazil's automotive market (if not, you can follow the link at
the bottom of the blog). Today, I will show that neighboring
Argentina faces the same problem. Argentina is struggling with
inflation. Last year, inflation was 10% according to the
government, but opposition in Congress says it was 25% – the
highest rate in South America and only behind Venezuela. The
government is known for reporting lower inflation and higher...
Tuesday, July 9, 2013 by
Several protests took place in Brazil during the month of June.
Everything started with public transportation fares that were
increased, although the increases were less than $0.10. And even
after the increase was cancelled, protests kept going on, focusing
on corruption, the amount spent to build stadiums for the World
Cup, poor educational and health systems despite high taxes,
amongst other things. (For more about the protests, see the links
at the bottom of the blog.) Ironically, protests......
Tuesday, June 25, 2013 by
Tax incentives were very effective in 2012 and helped
Brazil reach a new sales record of 3,573,076 light vehicles.
With this success, Brazil remained the fourth largest
automotive market in the world, just behind China, the United
States and Japan. Polk's automotive forecast does include any
changes in this ranking in 2013 when sales in Brazil are
anticipated to reach 3.63 million light vehicles. However, Brazil's
importance declines when we analyze production numbers. Last
Friday, May 10, 2013 by
Since January, Mexico has been able to import American and
Canadian vehicles that are Model Year (MY) 2007 or older. Up until
December, the limit was MY04 or older and in 2009, it was MY99 or
older. In 2019, any used vehicle can be imported from the U.S. and
Canada, regardless of its age. This is not a new problem: in 2006
and 2007, Mexico imported more used vehicles then it sold new cars.
Although the imports cooled down last year, they gained strength
again earlier in 2013. There was an...
Tuesday, March 19, 2013 by
Mainstream large cars, such as the Avalon, Maxima, Taurus and
Impala, continue to lose favor. Their combined share of the U.S.
market has retreated from 5.8% in 2008 to just 3.5% in 2012 (the
results were similar this past January, with the large car share
declining from 4.1% a year ago to 3.9% this year). Large cars now
account for a smaller slice of the U.S. market than minivans,
itself an endangered species. And the number of large cars
continues to decline, down from 14 in 2008 to 7 now....Re...
Monday, March 11, 2013 by
Venezuela was all over the news last week because of the death of
its president, Hugo Chávez. President Chávez passed away after a
battle against cancer, which included several surgeries in Cuba.
What the international media did not pay attention is to a law
approved in January that affects the automotive industry. How would
you react if a law determined that all new vehicles from now on
should have a sticker price from the first half of 2009? Moreover,
could you, the dealer network, afford...
Thursday, March 7, 2013 by
How would you react if a law determined that all new vehicles, from
now on, should have a sticker price from the first half of 2009?
Moreover, could you as a dealer network afford to give back to all
you customers what they paid beyond those prices between then and
now? This can sound like an unrealistic scenario, but is a law
approved in Venezuela. The law was create after Congress inspected
and questioned OEMs, dealers and independent stores and got to the
conclusion that vehicles are...
Monday, February 11, 2013 by
January 2013 U.S. new light vehicle sales climbed 14% from a year
ago and sales for the rest of the year are expected to climb as
well, though at a more modest rate. There are several drivers of
this growth, both at the macroeconomic level and within the
industry itself. Consider the following:
- Interest rates remain exceptionally low, and with the Fed
promising to keep them there until unemployment declines to 6.5%,
we can expect to see low rates for quite awhile. This means that
Thursday, January 31, 2013 by
The next 18 months are important for all OEMs, but perhaps
more so for GM than for any of its rivals. From mid-2012 through
mid-2014, GM will unveil the greatest array of all-new or
re-designed vehicles in recent memory, if not in the company's
history. In 2012, the company brought to market the Spark minicar,
Malibu midsize sedan, Verano compact car, XTS large luxury car and
the ATS compact luxury car. Coming in 2013 are new versions of the
Silverado and Sierra large pickups, the full-size... Re...
Wednesday, January 9, 2013 by
South America is a very diverse continent. Brazil, its main
country, forbids diesel passenger cars and speaks Portuguese, but
is surrounded by Spanish speaking countries. French Guiana still
belongs to France, something not very common nowadays. Consumer
behavior is also different: Toyota, for example, is the market
leader in Peru and has a higher share in the countries closer to
the Pacific Ocean, while customer loyalty in Brazil and Argentina
goes toward brands from Europe and the United...Read...
Thursday, January 3, 2013 by
Many of you may be returning to work this week after an extended
vacation around the holiday season. Welcome back! I'll keep this
blog short and informative. It's 2013 and the world didn't end last
month as the Mayans
(supposedly) predicted. Given this, we
can officially remove Mayan prognosticators from the category of a
legitimate forecasting entity. However, Polk has a few predictions.
They go something like this:
- New auto sales for 2013 will jump 6.6 percent over last year. Our
Thursday, December 20, 2012 by
Late in June, Argentina canceled the free-trade agreement it has
had with Mexico since 2002 (as noted in my prior blog
). Argentina wanted to negotiate the
agreement, as Brazil successfully did with Mexico, assigning quotas
to imports but Mexico did not concede. Argentina has been
consistently the fifth main market for Mexican exports since 2009,
although volumes jumped 177% between 2009 and 2011. Brazil went
from the fourth spot in 2009 up to second place this
year, even with limits to...
Monday, December 10, 2012 by
Welcome to a series of blog posts about the global automotive
market based on a paper that I recently worked on with a set of
colleagues that discusses important strategic questions for
automotive business planners. For those of you interested in
the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), this
blog focuses on the question, "Will BRIC countries continue to
drive organic growth in the automotive industry?" Answer: Yes! Why?
Of the 38 percent jump Polk expects to see for global light...
Friday, November 2, 2012 by
The sales and registration data speak for themselves regarding the
success of the Prius. Its sales more than doubled in September, and
are up 92% through nine months. However, because three new
derivatives of the Prius have come to market in 2012 (the tall 'V'
version, the plug-in version and the smaller 'C' version),
comparing this year with last is not comparing apples to apples.
But even when you pull out the 2012 deliveries of these three
derivatives and look just at the original Prius,...
Wednesday, October 17, 2012 by
It was a national holiday in Brazil on October 12 and I went with
my family to where my father was born, a small town where
approximately 10,000 people live today. During the long weekend, my
impression was that Chevrolet was the best seller in Brazil, but
actually it falls behind Fiat and Volkswagen. However, I saw more
of the Chevrolet Montana (a pick-up truck based on a passenger car,
something that Brazil created decades ago) and the S-10 (the local
name of the Colorado) than the Fiat...
Thursday, October 4, 2012 by
We hear all the time about the troubled U.S. economy. If it isn’t
high unemployment, it's the sluggish GDP or a decline in
manufacturing or something else. But, there is also frequent
mention in the media about the positive trends in the car business.
Car and light truck sales are up, the manufacturers are turning in
hefty – sometimes record – profits and even adding jobs to keep up
with strong demand. There seems to be a disconnect here. How could
the car business be doing so well while the...Re...