Polk EuroCar Seminar – Network Planning Questions & Answers

Wednesday, February 10, 2010 by Guest Blogger
After the EuroCar Seminar on 20 January 2010, we posted the top ten questions asked by OEM and OES delegates in attendance. Today I will be answering the last few questions. I hope you have found all of our answers helpful. If you missed the answers to the previous questions, don’t forget to read the answers posted by Norm Marks regarding marketing and Thomas Mawick regarding hybrids.

Can you share with us where or from whom dealer network planning can be most improved?


All manufacturers in all countries have room for improvement... I believe that in Europe, German networks need restructuring most urgently. Surprisingly, importers suffer most; even if they had better possibilities to align locations strategically, they need to improve dealer performance and network efficiency. The focus of network planning should be on the key metro markets.

Besides the saturated markets, there will be a lot of network planning potential in the eastern European countries, especially Russia.

Do you have a view about the demise of block exemption and the impact this will have? 

Motor Vehicle Block Exemption Regulation ("BER") is the legislative framework for motor vehicle distribution and servicing agreements in the EU. In place since 2002, current regulation No. 1400/2002 was meant to pave the way for efficient competition within the European markets and caused some significant changes in dealer networks such as discontinuation of location clause or multi-franchising trends.

With the current regulation expiring in a couple of months, the question is valid whether we have to expect further significant changes. The European Commission has not yet approved any new regulation so it's hard to say what the impact will be in detail. But from the recent drafts seen, here are a couple of issues:
  • New BER is anticipated in June for service but for sales there will be a transition time until 2013. In my opinion, we must not separate regulations for new vehicle sales and aftersales business. I have outlined how important integrated sales and service functions are for both dealers and manufacturers – Vertical BER does not help this way.
  • Vertical BER allows brand exclusivity contracts for up to a 5 year contract period, while automotive BER does not. Multi-brand dealerships are on average underperforming, therefore I have no doubt that manufacturers will make use of this exclusivity option. For many multi-franchise businesses this could mean that recent investments will not pay for themselves.
  • And finally a legal issue: the principle of legal certainty is not given for those manufacturers and/or dealers which exceed 30% market share.
Is the decrease in the Japanese dealer network an indication of the direction European dealer networks are going?

Indeed we could see some dealer terminations recently and domestic manufacturers already cut their networks in Japan or plan to do so. But it is not quite the same downsizing trend as in Europe or North America; dealer networks in Japan are relatively stable. The reason why we might see a decline in dealer contracts is different from Europe and the US. There are two market characteristics which make Japanese networks unique: first, Japan has a broader range of models in the market and second, dealerships and showrooms are commonly very small. As a result, many manufacturers sell different models through different sales channels. A large domestic OEM used to have two channels. But when they got into financial trouble in the early 2000s they reduced the number of models and scaled back the workforce. Hence both dealers, channel 1 and 2, were in fact close to each other selling the same models. Polk supported a network reduction (consolidation) project in 2005 to identify optimally located channel 1 or channel 2 dealers that could be expanded to handle the sales capacity of two former showrooms.

We hope that our answers have helped you. Feel free to comment if there’s anything you feel we've overlooked or if you have any comments.

If you could not attend the UK seminar, click here to find out about the upcoming Global Network Planning Trends Webinar.

Posted by Tanja Linken, Team Lead Network Management, Europe, Polk (02.10.10)

Why Don't Hybrids Sell in Emerging Markets?

Tuesday, February 9, 2010 by Margaret Zewatsky

Global hybrid sales trends have continued to increase despite the declining global light vehicle market. Some of the fastest growing light vehicle markets in the world are BRIC nations with China, India and Brazil experiencing light vehicle growth in 2009.

Despite the overall automotive growth in these emerging markets, hybrids have declined. And not just declined, but not sold. In China from January - October of 2009, only 303 vehicles out of nearly 9.7 million sold, were hybrids. For this same time period, India had 61 hybrid sales out of nearly 1.7 million vehicles. And Brazil didn't have a single hybrid vehicle sold during this time period.

So why don't hybrids sell in these otherwise fast growing markets? My best answer for this is a combination of activities including relatively low retail gas prices, no financial incentives from the government to buy "greener" cars that would compensate for the higher sticker price and also the possibility of limited availability due to OEM distribution strategies.

I'm currently working on a global hybrid Polk View analysis that will be published soon and would like to hear your thoughts on why hybrids aren't selling in emerging markets.

Posted by Margaret Zewatsky, Global Market Analyst, Polk (02.09.10)

Polk EuroCar Seminar – Hybrid Questions & Answers

Monday, February 8, 2010 by Guest Blogger
After the EuroCar Seminar on 20 January 2010, we posted the top ten questions asked by OEM and OES delegates in attendance. Today I will be answering questions pertaining to hybrids. If you missed Norm Marks answers to the Marketing questions, you can find them here. Tanja Linken will be answering questions aboout Network Planning in the next blog entry.

With regard to CO2 emissions, hybrids and zero emission vehicles, do you have any insight into vehicle whole life costs?

This question targets the cost of vehicle construction, battery cost including disposal and the vehicle running costs. The variety of calculations regarding life costs is still quite large. While it is not yet clear whether the retail prices for hybrid vehicles allow for a financial break-even to occur, in some premium models the hybrid drive is extremely expensive which can prevent a break-even from happening. The highest costs in car driving appear to be the loss in value on the one hand and the running costs (mainly fuel). So very much depends on the residual values for alternative cars and their general acceptance and the price relationship between the different fuel types in the future. The term "zero emission vehicles" is also a bit misleading as EVs (electric vehicles) do not emit while driving, but they still need energy for battery recharging. Dependent on the energy mix used in the production process, EVs might emit more CO2 than small diesel or petrol engines.

Is the development of fuel efficient vehicles dependent on the oil price going to $600 a barrel?

There are different scenarios regarding the future oil price development. Polk expects a price of ~$130 towards 2020, others expect $300 or even $600 per barrel. During 2008, oil became quite expensive with almost $150/barrel by the middle of that year. The pressure to develop alternative drives for cars increased. New regulations (e.g., those related to fleet consumption and CO2 emissions) force the public to reduce the fuel consumption of their vehicles. We expect to see both an improvement in conventional combustion technology by engine downsizing, optimized engines, start-stop systems, etc., as well as an expanded model offer in advanced technologies like hybrid or EV. With higher oil prices, there will be higher pressure to develop new technologies as well as pressure to reach financial break-even points for alternative energies.

What is the difference between plug-in hybrids, pure full hybrids and mild hybrids?

A plug-in hybrid vehicle is similar to a conventional full hybrid vehicle—both use a combustion engine as well as an electric motor. However, a plug-in hybrid uses larger battery packs that can be recharged by connecting to common household electricity. In full hybrid vehicles, the electric motor and the internal combustion engine are installed so that they can both individually or jointly power the vehicle. For shorter distances the vehicle can be propelled in its EV mode solely, which eliminates emissions. Mild hybrids use a generally compact electric motor to give extra output during the acceleration, and to generate on the deceleration phase. With mild hybrids, the vehicle cannot be powered by the electric motor exclusively.

Do you have any evidence that customers are driving shorter distances as a result of economic conditions?

At the moment we don't have any evidence for this development. The tightening of economic conditions has affected all kinds of industries dealing with transportation. Nevertheless private mobility is of common interest. With the overall trend of rising costs of ownership, the private driving behaviour might change and result in decreasing mileage, but this depends on the development of the costs of alternative means of transportation.

Thank you for taking the time to read my blog entry. If I left anything out that you would like answered, please submit a comment and I will be happy to address it!

Posted by Thomas Mawick, Manager, Automotive Studies, Europe, Polk (02.08.10)

The Polk EuroCar Seminar – Marketing Questions & Answers

Thursday, February 4, 2010 by Guest Blogger
After the EuroCar Seminar on 20 January 2010, we posted the top ten questions asked by OEM and OES delegates in attendance. Today I will answer the three marketing questions. The remaining questions will be answered by Tanja Linken and Thomas Mawick.

1. If you could only do one thing with respect to marketing in this environment, what would it be or in what area would you focus?

We must optimize automotive marketing both for new vehicle sales and aftersales. That said, aftersales marketing has been an area that in my opinion has not received an appropriate level of attention. There are numerous opportunities to better communicate effectively with customers during their ownership period. These efforts have strong impacts on the customer experience at both a OE and dealer brand level.

2. You have covered a great deal of ground, what type of automotive marketing has been most effective/impactful?


Programmes that focus on customer loyalty and retention with demonstrable ROI are perhaps the most effective marketing initiatives given the efficient use of precious marketing resources. In a difficult sales environment, long term loyalty really matters.

3. Are there any other marketing challenges that ‘keep you awake at night’?

One marketing challenge that keeps me awake at night is the reliance on incentives in order to sell new vehicles. This poses a dilemma when incentives aren't always available yet sales targets need to be met. By and large, OEMs recognize this challenge, yet many struggle with breaking the cycle of providing generous incentives.

I hope this answers your questions. Feel free to comment on this blog if you have anymore questions or insights. Watch the blog for the upcoming responses to the network planning and hybrid related questions in the next few days.

Posted by Norm Marks, Vice President, Sales & Client Services; Managing Director Northern Europe, Polk (02.04.10)


Hybrids—Young but Promising

Tuesday, January 26, 2010 by Guest Blogger
Last week I attended the AAIA Car Care Council—Women’s Board 2010 Winter Meeting at the Rio Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas. I was also honored to participate in a Hybrid Technology Panel to discuss the future of hybrid vehicles and how they will affect the automotive aftermarket industry.

Through the discussion, it became very clear that while hybrids are talked about a lot, they are still very, very young. As of July 1, 2009, hybrids represented less than 1% of the vehicles in operation. However, while currently not that significant, it is clearly viewed as the technology of the future. And, new technologies bring new challenges and that means new opportunities for the aftermarket.

The training available for technicians at this time is still very limited to only maintenance work and since these vehicles are still so new, it is too soon to determine what types of service issues they may be prone to.

All in all, the aftermarket needs to keep an eye on this small, but growing segment. Hybrids don’t appear to be going away, so we need to embrace and prepare for a very promising future.

Posted by Heidy Herrera, Account Representative, Aftermarket, Polk (01.26.10)


Polk EuroCar Seminar – Top 10 Questions

Thursday, January 21, 2010 by Guest Blogger

What were the top 10 questions from the OEM and OES delegates attending the Polk EuroCar Seminar in the UK on 20 January 2010?

  1. If you could only do one thing with respect to marketing in this environment, what would it be or in what area would you focus?
  2. You have covered a great deal of ground, what type of marketing has been most effective / impactful?
  3. Are there any other challenges that 'keep you awake at night'?
  4. Can you share with us where or from whom dealer network planning can be most improved?
  5. Do you have a view about the demise of block exemption and the impact this will have?
  6. Is the decrease in the Japan dealer network an indication of the direction European dealer networks are going?
  7. With regard to CO2 emissions, hybrids and zero emission vehicles, do you have any insight into vehicle whole life costs?
  8. Is the development of fuel efficient vehicles dependant on the oil price going to $600 a barrel?
  9. What is the difference between plug-in hybrids, pure full hybrids and mild hybrids?
  10. Do you have any evidence that customers are driving shorter distances as a result of economic conditions?

These questions are an indication of the themes foremost in delegate's minds. Watch the blog for answers to these questions.

Posted by Marcus Richardson, PolkConnect Programme Manager, Polk's Europe Operations (01.21.2010)

Detroit Auto Show's Electric Vehicle Test Drive

Tuesday, January 12, 2010 by Margaret Zewatsky
I'm at the Detroit Auto Show today and there are hybrids and electric vehicles galore. I came to the show with an interest in super small cars and wanted to see and touch the cars I wrote about in my Will Super Small Cars Generate Super Big Sales analysis. I had the opportunity to see the Chevy Spark (I was sorry to see the clam shell doors were replaced by a traditional rear passenger door), the Fiat 500 and the Toyota FT-EVII concept that sits four, but not much more. 

I also had the opportunity to test drive a super small eZone from CT&T. CT&T is a Korean OEM with a fleet of electric vehicles that they are introducing to the U.S. market. This was my first test drive of an electric vehicle other than a golf cart. When I sat in the car I was surprised that I didn't feel cramped, but there wasn't room for my big auto show bag so the CT&T co-pilot held it at his feet. I sat down, was told to go slow and then reached for the gear shifter, but all I found was a button with D and R. I pushed the D for drive, stepped on the petal and away I silently went. You couldn't really tell the acceleration of the car in the basement of the Expo hall, but I don't think you'd win any races. It could be an ideal car for the urban commuter that has the opportunity to plug in or the golf cart community member looking for something different. What do you think? Is there a market for these super small electric vehicles in the U.S.?
 


Posted by Margaret Zewatsky, Global Market Analyst, Polk (1.12.2010)

Ford Continues to Connect

Tuesday, January 5, 2010 by Therran Oliphant

If you're like me, you're probably wondering why Ford has come out with a new product in the Medium Duty Commercial Vehicle Market segment this fiscal year, when industry sales are expected to be weaker than original forecasts. If you did wonder, then you haven't seen the Ford Transit Connect. An unabashed, small (don't dare call it mini) van that promises to be the vehicle version of a multi-tasking child that is watching television, playing a computer game, and text messaging their friends all at the same time.

The six-foot six-inch height is surprising and creates a roomy, if not downright capacious space for whatever application the owner can imagine. Plus, Edmunds lists the vehicle with a 23 mpg fuel rating and 135 cu. ft. of cargo space all at a price tag of $20.8K - welcome specs for the small business owner looking to save, in all areas of their business, without sacrificing quality. If you need power, though, then this vehicle may not be for you. The 4 cylinder engine is only putting out 128 lbs. ft. of torque at 4750 rpm. The horsepower story isn't much better with 136 hp at 6300 rpm.

I still think this vehicle has the opportunity to be a game-changing crossover in the commercial and consumer vehicle markets alike. The large space gives contractors, small business owners and shuttle services the opportunity to use a smaller, more fuel efficient vehicle with enough room to handle all of their needs. For the consumer, the Transit Connect has an optional three-across bench style second row seat. This could mean a multitude of uses for drivers with wheelchairs, families with an active lifestyle, small bands and folks who simply dig the quirkiness of the vehicle.

Ford has also reached out to the earth friendly crowd - they will be happy to know that Consumer Reports mentioned Ford's plans to come out with a battery-electric hybrid version this year. It seems as though the hits just keep on coming for Ford as they add to the ever-popular Mustang muscle car and F-Series trucks with the Connect, redesigned Fusion and Taurus. Suddenly Ford's vehicle lineup is looking quite strong and attractive. They may even prompt me to take the, "Have you driven a Ford lately" challenge to heart, and actually drive one instead of simply answering, "No."

I am excited to start seeing these vehicles on the road here in the U.S. instead of pictures from Europe but I'm even more excited to see what effect the vehicle will have on the industry trend to produce larger - more powerful and roomy - but less efficient vehicles. What effect do you think the new Ford Transit Connect will have on the market?

Posted by Therran Oliphant, Account Representative, Commercial Vehicle Truck Group, Polk (01.05.2010)

What is the Best Hybrid Strategy for OEMs?

Friday, October 16, 2009 by Guest Blogger

Hybrid sales trends are down 23% comparing January through August 2009 to the same time period in 2008. But seven new hybrid models have hit the road in 2009. Most of these new hybrids have a traditional gasoline engine counterpart, but the Honda Insight is available only as a hybrid. All of the new models have a tough challenge ahead since Toyota Prius leads the hybrid segment with a 49% command of sales CYTD thru August 2009.

The Toyota Prius and Honda Insight are available strictly as hybrids, but both Toyota and Honda also have models with traditional gasoline and hybrid options (e.g., Toyota Camry and Honda Civic). Ford, on the other hand, has three hybrid models (Focus, Fusion and Escape) in the market, all of which are also on the market as traditional gasoline only vehicles.

So to my question: What is the right hybrid strategy? Positioning a model as an exclusive hybrid with distinctive styling like the Toyota Prius and Honda Insight or offering a hybrid option to an existing gasoline powered model like the Ford Fusion? Does the general public want to drive a distinctly styled hybrid that proudly displays their eco-friendliness or do people simply want better fuel economy on existing popular models?

It is interesting to think about which strategy will be the best, especially with the highly publicized Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf launching soon. What do you think?

Posted by Margaret Zewatsky, Global Market Analyst, Polk (10.16.2009)

Diesel Dilemma in the U.S.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009 by Guest Blogger

Why don't small diesel cars get bought or sold in the U.S.? The last time you were in Europe up to 40% of the cars driving next to you were diesels. They were getting up to 60 MPG and didn’t have complex recharging systems or heavy batteries. Could you tell? They weren’t smoking, they didn’t sound like an F350, they were probably going to last longer than the petrol version next to them and they are great mid and small sized cars. This industry trend seems almost absent in the U.S. consumer marketplace.

If you could buy the new Taurus as a Turbo Diesel and get 40 MPG, would you? If you could buy the same Saab, Audi or BMW that you buy here in the U.S. today and get double the mileage with none of the hybrid costs or future headaches of replacing batteries – would you? I know I would.

If you wouldn't buy one, why not? Most of these vehicles have been engineered to meet U.S. vehicle safety and crash standards. The diesel that you can buy here in the U.S. is now clean enough to put in their highly tuned engines without destroying them. What is stopping the OEMs from bringing them over by the boatload? VW is making a start – their TDIs appear to be selling well but this is a small manufacturer with few models. Is it really public opinion of diesels that is driving manufacturer behavior? Has there been no consumer research to gauge loyalty for this forgotten automotive engine segment? Or are the manufacturers overstating consumer concern and missing a huge opportunity to improve U.S. fuel consumption on new vehicles... and limiting consumer choices? I know that when I buy my next vehicle, it will be a diesel since I commute 86 miles to work each day.

Posted by Chris Royle, Director, Global Product Strategy, Polk (09.15.09)

Why Are You Loyal to an Automotive Brand?

Monday, August 10, 2009 by Lonnie Miller

What makes us buy the same car or truck again? What makes us even consider the same brand when most consumers have in excess of 300 models to choose from when buying a car or truck?

Monthly payments...design of the vehicle..."cool factor"...great dealer service...it's a hybrid...? The list is endless. But the question is: what matters to you the most? From your perspective, which factor creates customer loyalty?

Here's a proposition for you: Tell me your reasons for customer loyalty in the auto sector and we can see where your reasons stack up to other views. I have my reasons for staying loyal to a particular automotive brand - I'd love to hear your thoughts on this matter. It's a timeless debate.

Posted by Lonnie Miller, Director of Industry Analysis, Polk (08.10.2009)

Automotive OEMs Think "Green" This Fall!

Thursday, August 6, 2009 by Francois Gravigny

The much talked about U.S. automotive industry trend towards smaller and cleaner engines is picking up speed this fall. A look at the next three months' product launches shows that customers looking for fuel-efficient vehicles will have a greater choice.

Smaller engines are being introduced in vehicles typically powered by six or eight cylinders. The Audi A5, Buick LaCrosse and Chevrolet Equinox/GMC Terrain will for the first time use 4-cylinder powerplants. Given the current market conditions, those trims should quickly grab a significant share of their respective product mix. So does it mean that the U.S. automotive market is headed towards a more "European-like" engine mix type? It is likely. As of calendar year to-date May 2009, 4 cylinder engines still make up only 41% of the U.S. car and light truck industry. That share is bound to increase.

Much has already been said about Ford’s new 6-cylinder Turbo 'Ecoboost' engine. It is Ford’s way of replacing thirsty V8s without compromising performance. The Ecoboost is now available in the Ford Flex, Lincoln MKS and MKT vehicle lines. Interesting from a technology point of view, the V6 Ecoboost should only account for a small part of those model mixes. Next in line will be Ford’s higher volume 4-cylinder 'Ecoboost'.

One other way for manufacturers to improve on gas mileage is to "de-content". Mazda and Volvo will both launch non-turbo versions of their already-on-sale CX-7 and XC60 compact turbo SUVs. This is a smart and inexpensive way to offer customers a greener and cheaper alternative.

Acura will go a slightly different route to improve on its crossover's fuel efficiency. The RDX, on sale since 2006, will for the first time be available as a two-wheel drive and consequently get an additional two miles per gallon. It should be a success especially in the Sun Belt region where many luxury crossover customers do not need four-wheel drive vehicles.

Finally, a European manufacturer (a first!) is entering the hybrid vehicle market. Mercedes-Benz is adding new electric-gasoline powertrains to its S and M luxury vehicle lines. The ML450 will compete head-to-head with Lexus' new RX450h. If properly priced, and if the RX is any indication, we can expect the ML hybrid rate to quickly reach 20%. As for the S400 hybrid, it will be a unique proposition for customers looking for an environmental Über-Sedan; getting close to 30 mpg in a full-size luxury car is a first in the U.S.

As manufacturers venture into new niches, as more diversified powertrains become available and as customers ask for more trims, model launch frequency will keep rising. Who's next to the party?

Posted by Francois Gravigny, Senior PolkInsight Advisor, Polk (08.06.2009)

Welcome to the Polk Blog!

Monday, June 29, 2009 by Stephen Polk
I am excited to be kicking off this launch of the Polk Blog. Together with many of my Polk colleagues, I welcome the chance to share thoughts and insights and to engage in dialogue on the automotive industry challenges that surround us every day.

Our goal is to share perspectives, market analysis and forecasts on the shifts we see in the global automotive marketplace. I have no doubt that the next few years will be turbulent. There will be continuous change in sales trends, lead management practices and aftermarket support that will drive loyalty to manufacturers and their dealers. Other factors like changing CAFE regulations and hybrid technology advances will influence product decisions in the industry.

And the breadth of changes will be global. I made a presentation last week on the Chinese automotive outlook. One of the highlights for me was the significance of General Motors as the leader in the Chinese light vehicle market (17.4% market share). GM had the largest largest share gains in China in 2009, succeeding despite the turmoil around the US bankruptcy issues. There will be winners and losers around the world, and the final outcomes will be very volatile.

It is going to be an exciting time. Welcome, again, to our inaugural Polk Blog. We welcome your comments as we discuss our perspectives.

Posted by Stephen Polk, Chairman/CEO, Polk (06.29.2009)