Posts by Guest Bloggers

		Mike Yakima is the PolkInsight Advisor to General Motors. He is responsible for assisting GM in its use and understanding of the PolkInsight Product as well as providing support and market analysis to multiple GM business units.
		Tanja Linken manages the Network Planning team for Polk Europe. With years of experience in regional planning, Tanja and her team are experts in providing spatial analyses, retail network optimization and GIS technology for the automotive industry.				Gary Meteer, Sr. is director, sales and clients services of the Commercial Vehicle and Automotive Aftermarket teams at Polk. He is responsible for the implementation of the commercial vehicle market strategy as well as all aspects related to new business development.
		Marcus Richardson is the PolkConnect Programme Manager, responsible for successfully managing all programme activities and deliverables of the PolkConnect product on a Pan European/UK basis, including client engagement activities, program awareness, training, quality of output, pilot dealer on-boarding and conversion to rollout.				Uwe Biastoch, Director Global Forecasting, is responsible for the commercial development and coordination of Polk's global forecasting activities and for developing synergies with other Polk areas to create powerful global customer solutions.
		Norm Marks, Vice President & Managing Director, is responsible for the business operations and overall strategic direction of Polk's Northern European region. Marks has been a leader in the design, development and implementation of data-driven products for the automotive, manufacturing and consumer product goods industries.				Brad Korner holds the position of Director, Client Sales & Service for the Automotive Retail Solutions group of Polk. He is an industry veteran of 28 years providing franchised automotive dealers with DMS software solutions, marketing services, performance analytics and insight into performance improvement.
		Dave Goebel is responsible for Polk's forecasting initiatives in North America. Dave has consulted with many OEMs and aftermarket companies in his nine years at Polk. Dave holds graduate degrees in economics and has nearly 15 years of experience as an economist in the banking and automotive industries.				Jody Doublestein is an Account Manager on the Business & Insurance team with  focus on the Recreational Vehicle, Motorcycle and Marine Industries. Her knowledge of these markets, and her  understanding of how to apply Polk data to their unique requirements, helps her customers make smarter, more informed business decisions.
		Matt Safran is the Account Manager for Polk's Business and Insurance team. He is responsible for the western US as well as several major accounts. Matt has served in many key positions throughout his 10 years with Polk that have allowed him to better understand Polk's products and how each client can benefit from them.				Thomas Mawick manages the automotive study department at Polk. He is responsible for all multi-client and single-client market studies. In addition, he is the production development analyst for the German auto brands and their model programs.
		Chris Royle is part of the Product Management team at Polk. He oversees the team responsible for may of Polk’s products that help customers answer their critical business questions. As an Ex-Pat with 13 years in the US and 3 in Germany since leaving the UK, he brings a Global view to everything he does.				Ulrich Winzen is Polk's Chief Analyst in the Essen, Germany office. With his team, he generates all analyses, forecasts and consultancy studies for the worldwide car markets. In addition, since 1991, he has been the analyst and forecaster for the German car market.
		Peter Haefele is a Senior Analyst with Polk Global Automotive's Canadian Operations. He has a passion for the automotive industry with an expertise in analyzing competitive segmentation, market trending and new product development.				Margaret Zewatsky is a Product Strategist with a passion for understanding emerging automotive market trends. Margaret has led multiple key global initiatives and is seasoned in new product development and product management. Click here for more of Margaret's blog entries.
		Bruce Giffin is Corporate Market Research Manager at Polk. His 20 years of quantitative and qualitative research expertise span market analysis and competitive intelligence, new product development and brand and communications research.				Laura Murray is a Product Manager for many of Polk's direct marketing solutions including marketing lists, email and data enhancement/data hygiene. She also manages, globally, Polk's new vehicle sales CRM system: PolkConnect Sales.

In a previous blog I asked the question, "What will be the buzz at NADA 2010?" Now that the show is over, I have some observations to share.

NADA 2010 was a combination of "sizzle and steak." The show included new technologies, and beautiful vehicle models. There were brick and mortar enhancements for dealers to compete on a retail level. Aftermarket Row provided ways to ramp up fixed operations and used vehicle sales for gaining the dealership "orphaned owners." 

The atmosphere was more intimate, featuring a smaller and scaled back exhibit hall. Speaking with attendees and exhibitors, the more personal access and "to-the-point" conversations was a refreshing change from the bloated, party-filled NADAs of the past. The market continues to figure out the digital purchase journey of shoppers to buyers. Dealers and their agencies are working to be more effective at spending automotive marketing and advertising money for better shopper and lead conversion. The magic behind the curtain of behavioral targeting is becoming less of a mystery. And we're all starting to connect the dots of offline and online (digital marketing) activity to help suppliers and dealers figure out ad placement and content when delivering a marketing message that is based on consumer needs.

Overall, the integration of data into dealership portals and dashboards is accelerating and is finally beginning to show that all of this information can be placed into a singular business intelligence tool for making better data-driven decisions.

So, I’ll join the rest of the attendees I’ve spoken with, who enjoyed a new, and different NADA and say that 2010 will be another challenging year. Those that were here will come back with the tools and knowledge to take advantage of a slow, but progressively improving vehicle sales year in 2010.

Posted by Brad Korner, Director - Client Sales & Service, Automotive Retail Solutions, Polk (02.18.2010)

After the EuroCar Seminar on 20 January 2010, we posted the top ten questions asked by OEM and OES delegates in attendance. Today I will be answering the last few questions. I hope you have found all of our answers helpful. If you missed the answers to the previous questions, don’t forget to read the answers posted by Norm Marks regarding marketing and Thomas Mawick regarding hybrids.

Can you share with us where or from whom dealer network planning can be most improved?

All manufacturers in all countries have room for improvement... I believe that in Europe, German networks need restructuring most urgently. Surprisingly, importers suffer most; even if they had better possibilities to align locations strategically, they need to improve dealer performance and network efficiency. The focus of network planning should be on the key metro markets.

Besides the saturated markets, there will be a lot of network planning potential in the eastern European countries, especially Russia.

Do you have a view about the demise of block exemption and the impact this will have? 

Motor Vehicle Block Exemption Regulation ("BER") is the legislative framework for motor vehicle distribution and servicing agreements in the EU. In place since 2002, current regulation No. 1400/2002 was meant to pave the way for efficient competition within the European markets and caused some significant changes in dealer networks such as discontinuation of location clause or multi-franchising trends.

With the current regulation expiring in a couple of months, the question is valid whether we have to expect further significant changes. The European Commission has not yet approved any new regulation so it's hard to say what the impact will be in detail. But from the recent drafts seen, here are a couple of issues:

• New BER is anticipated in June for service but for sales there will be a transition time until 2013. In my opinion, we must not separate regulations for new vehicle sales and aftersales business. I have outlined how important integrated sales and service functions are for both dealers and manufacturers – Vertical BER does not help this way.
• Vertical BER allows brand exclusivity contracts for up to a 5 year contract period, while automotive BER does not. Multi-brand dealerships are on average underperforming, therefore I have no doubt that manufacturers will make use of this exclusivity option. For many multi-franchise businesses this could mean that recent investments will not pay for themselves.
• And finally a legal issue: the principle of legal certainty is not given for those manufacturers and/or dealers which exceed 30% market share.

Is the decrease in the Japanese dealer network an indication of the direction European dealer networks are going?

Indeed we could see some dealer terminations recently and domestic manufacturers already cut their networks in Japan or plan to do so. But it is not quite the same downsizing trend as in Europe or North America; dealer networks in Japan are relatively stable. The reason why we might see a decline in dealer contracts is different from Europe and the US. There are two market characteristics which make Japanese networks unique: first, Japan has a broader range of models in the market and second, dealerships and showrooms are commonly very small. As a result, many manufacturers sell different models through different sales channels. A large domestic OEM used to have two channels. But when they got into financial trouble in the early 2000s they reduced the number of models and scaled back the workforce. Hence both dealers, channel 1 and 2, were in fact close to each other selling the same models. Polk supported a network reduction (consolidation) project in 2005 to identify optimally located channel 1 or channel 2 dealers that could be expanded to handle the sales capacity of two former showrooms.

We hope that our answers have helped you. Feel free to comment if there’s anything you feel we've overlooked or if you have any comments.

If you could not attend the UK seminar, click here to find out about the upcoming Global Network Planning Trends Webinar.

Posted by Tanja Linken, Team Lead Network Management, Europe, Polk (02.10.10)

After the EuroCar Seminar on 20 January 2010, we posted the top ten questions asked by OEM and OES delegates in attendance. Today I will be answering questions pertaining to hybrids. If you missed Norm Marks answers to the Marketing questions, you can find them here. Tanja Linken will be answering questions aboout Network Planning in the next blog entry.

With regard to CO2 emissions, hybrids and zero emission vehicles, do you have any insight into vehicle whole life costs?

This question targets the cost of vehicle construction, battery cost including disposal and the vehicle running costs. The variety of calculations regarding life costs is still quite large. While it is not yet clear whether the retail prices for hybrid vehicles allow for a financial break-even to occur, in some premium models the hybrid drive is extremely expensive which can prevent a break-even from happening. The highest costs in car driving appear to be the loss in value on the one hand and the running costs (mainly fuel). So very much depends on the residual values for alternative cars and their general acceptance and the price relationship between the different fuel types in the future. The term "zero emission vehicles" is also a bit misleading as EVs (electric vehicles) do not emit while driving, but they still need energy for battery recharging. Dependent on the energy mix used in the production process, EVs might emit more CO2 than small diesel or petrol engines.

Is the development of fuel efficient vehicles dependent on the oil price going to $600 a barrel?

There are different scenarios regarding the future oil price development. Polk expects a price of ~$130 towards 2020, others expect $300 or even $600 per barrel. During 2008, oil became quite expensive with almost $150/barrel by the middle of that year. The pressure to develop alternative drives for cars increased. New regulations (e.g., those related to fleet consumption and CO2 emissions) force the public to reduce the fuel consumption of their vehicles. We expect to see both an improvement in conventional combustion technology by engine downsizing, optimized engines, start-stop systems, etc., as well as an expanded model offer in advanced technologies like hybrid or EV. With higher oil prices, there will be higher pressure to develop new technologies as well as pressure to reach financial break-even points for alternative energies.

What is the difference between plug-in hybrids, pure full hybrids and mild hybrids?

A plug-in hybrid vehicle is similar to a conventional full hybrid vehicle—both use a combustion engine as well as an electric motor. However, a plug-in hybrid uses larger battery packs that can be recharged by connecting to common household electricity. In full hybrid vehicles, the electric motor and the internal combustion engine are installed so that they can both individually or jointly power the vehicle. For shorter distances the vehicle can be propelled in its EV mode solely, which eliminates emissions. Mild hybrids use a generally compact electric motor to give extra output during the acceleration, and to generate on the deceleration phase. With mild hybrids, the vehicle cannot be powered by the electric motor exclusively.

Do you have any evidence that customers are driving shorter distances as a result of economic conditions?

At the moment we don't have any evidence for this development. The tightening of economic conditions has affected all kinds of industries dealing with transportation. Nevertheless private mobility is of common interest. With the overall trend of rising costs of ownership, the private driving behaviour might change and result in decreasing mileage, but this depends on the development of the costs of alternative means of transportation.

Thank you for taking the time to read my blog entry. If I left anything out that you would like answered, please submit a comment and I will be happy to address it!

Posted by Thomas Mawick, Manager, Automotive Studies, Europe, Polk (02.08.10)

It's Friday and I didn't want to blog people down with a serious entry about the depressing automotive industry challenges or sales trends. Today I decided to blog about something lighter, but something that we can all think about—how can we make the car even better? The OEMs are doing such cool stuff already, as seen by features like the Ford SYNC® and the recently announced KIA UVO voice controlled system (to name just two), but what would make the car perfect for me?
 
Now, I’m not a techie. And frankly, I have no idea how my car works. I'm a marketing guy. But, I pay attention. I see all the neat new technology that my sons ask for, that I refuse to get them. And what I have learned most recently is, no matter what you want to do, there seems to be an "app" for that. 

Take the automatic car starter. Today, they require you to push a button on a key fob aimed at the car. That's too much work. My colleague, Cenk Hepaktan, discussed new features that could easily be available with your smart phone in his blog last fall. I'd like an app that would allow me to set a timer to start the car and warm the seats, too. Then I could walk out my door and have my car running with absolutely no effort on my part. It seems simple like a marriage made in heaven.

Today, many cars come equipped with a GPS. A great advancement, but I know where I'm going when I drive. I want a system that tells the guy in the nearby car how to drive instead. Remember the old Mr. Microphone that let you project through your car radio? Same idea—if someone is tailgating you, your car could automatically broadcast into that car’s radio and scream whatever epithet is pre-programmed for that offense.

How about a car with a built-in memory? Computers have memories. Computers are in cars. Therefore, cars should have memories. I want to get in my car and simply say, "Work," and my car should take me to my destination. Actually, I'm pretty sure my car can already do this, since there are days that I drive to work where I would swear the car drove itself. I’ve also seen some pretty interesting ways that programmers are using their smart phones to actually DRIVE their cars, using telematics and smart phones, as can be seen in this humorous video.



(http://www.youtube.com/)

However, I would prefer to not sit on or in the car. I would rather stay home and have the car drive and pick up my kids from their friends' houses. So I guess, those really far-fetched futuristic George Jetson ideas may be showing up at the next North American International Auto Show.

So have you thought about your perfect car? Are you already driving it? What features would you love to see at the next auto show? How can the OEMs create your perfect car?

Posted by Jeffrey Stone, Sr. Marketing Specialist, Polk (02.05.10)

After the EuroCar Seminar on 20 January 2010, we posted the top ten questions asked by OEM and OES delegates in attendance. Today I will answer the three marketing questions. The remaining questions will be answered by Tanja Linken and Thomas Mawick.

1. If you could only do one thing with respect to marketing in this environment, what would it be or in what area would you focus?

We must optimize automotive marketing both for new vehicle sales and aftersales. That said, aftersales marketing has been an area that in my opinion has not received an appropriate level of attention. There are numerous opportunities to better communicate effectively with customers during their ownership period. These efforts have strong impacts on the customer experience at both a OE and dealer brand level.

2. You have covered a great deal of ground, what type of automotive marketing has been most effective/impactful?

Programmes that focus on customer loyalty and retention with demonstrable ROI are perhaps the most effective marketing initiatives given the efficient use of precious marketing resources. In a difficult sales environment, long term loyalty really matters.

3. Are there any other marketing challenges that ‘keep you awake at night’?

One marketing challenge that keeps me awake at night is the reliance on incentives in order to sell new vehicles. This poses a dilemma when incentives aren't always available yet sales targets need to be met. By and large, OEMs recognize this challenge, yet many struggle with breaking the cycle of providing generous incentives.

I hope this answers your questions. Feel free to comment on this blog if you have anymore questions or insights. Watch the blog for the upcoming responses to the network planning and hybrid related questions in the next few days.

Posted by Norm Marks, Vice President, Sales & Client Services; Managing Director Northern Europe, Polk (02.04.10)

Generally, the first question that people ask themselves after deciding that they would like a new car or truck is, "How am I going to pay for this?" In years past, many consumers have turned to leasing as a convenient option that allows for "a little more car." In recent years however, that option has been harder and harder to come by. 

In 2008, the average lease rate was 18.1%. BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen all led the pack, leasing well over 40% of their vehicles. The credit crunch in 2009 forced lending institutions to impose strict rules governing the approval of lease applications. The average US rate fell to 13% through November. This was an especially big hit to the market share of the already weakened domestic OEMs. Chrysler's leasing came to a halt--dropping from an average of 15.3% in '08 to only 1.6% in '09. 

Geographically, leasing is most popular in the Mideast states where lease rates reached as high as 28.6% in 2008. The Great Lakes region experienced over a 50% drop in leasing driven by its heavy domestic presence. The smallest drop and lowest lease rates occurred in the Southwest where only 6.3% of sales are leases. 

What does 2010 have in store for leasing? Polk's automotive forecast is 11.5 million light vehicle sales for 2010. This, coupled with a forecasted 2.9% increase in GDP spells good news for leasing, especially if lending rules surrounding consumer credit can be relaxed. Stabilization of the unemployment rate will assist in minimizing foreclosures which should allow the housing market to gain some much needed lost ground. If all of the moving pieces can line up, we should slowly see a return to historical leasing levels. But one thing is certain, they will not rise as fast as they fell.



Posted by Michael Yakima, PolkInsight Advisor to General Motors, Polk (02.03.10)

Last week, I was proud to introduce William C. Diggory as the recipient of this year’s Heavy Duty Industry Aftermarket Hall of Fame Award.

Bill is the retired Vice President and General Manager of SKF Vehicle Service Market in North America. In addition to his wealth of industry experience, Bill also served as chairman of the Heavy Duty Manufacturers Association (HDMA) from 2005 to 2006. His leadership in planning and promoting Heavy Duty Aftermarket Week (HDAW) led to the tremendous success and growth of this event. And what an event it has become! This is the third straight year Polk has sponsored the "Hall of Fame Award" and it is truly an honor every year to pay homage to those special individuals who have made significant, selfless contributions to the commercial vehicle market.

Thanks to everyone who attended last week. I look forward to seeing you again at HDAW 2011.



Posted by Gary Meteer, Director of Sales & Client Services, Aftermarket & Commercial Vehicle, Polk (02.02.10)

The National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Convention in Orlando, FL, is next week and customers, colleagues and industry suppliers seem less cautious and more optimistic about the industry trends for 2010.

And why shouldn’t we? New vehicle sales forecasts have continued to inch up to the mid and high 11 million ranges. New vehicle models have been launched with enthusiastic responses and early indications are a good start for January.

The word from dealers and dealer groups in 2010 is to capture consumers and households that have been orphaned from the dealership closures.

For new and used vehicle sales, or parts and service transactions, dealers know the importance of extending outside of their customer base and staking claim for new market share. Finding these prospects and transitioning them into customers is a key goal Polk is hearing from the dealers attending NADA. 

So what are the suppliers to dealers saying? The allied industry suppliers, like marketing services and automotive CRM companies, new & used inventory stocking tools and consumer portals, are all looking to integrate objective market data into their applications for helping dealers make good data-driven decisions. The days of disparate data bases and silo reporting are over. This method simply does not allow the industry to act quickly and economically to target audiences and individuals who are in the market to purchase.  Dealers are telling the suppliers to consolidate this data into an easy-to-use application so they can go to one spot and evaluate where to invest their automotive marketing budget, in what channels and with measured ROI.

So, what will be the buzz at NADA 2010? With a record number of workshops and companies exhibiting many of the tools mentioned above, I think we are going to see dealers that are looking for their suppliers to provide better methods for integrating the different market data while providing them and their employees more effective, economical and efficient ways to capture and convert consumers from their current data bases, as well as orphaned prospects that need a "new home" for their transportation needs. I'll report back after the show and let you know the outcome—stay tuned.

Posted by Brad Korner, Director - Client Sales & Service, Automotive Retail Solutions, Polk (02.02.2010)

Last week I attended the AAIA Car Care Council—Women’s Board 2010 Winter Meeting at the Rio Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas. I was also honored to participate in a Hybrid Technology Panel to discuss the future of hybrid vehicles and how they will affect the automotive aftermarket industry.

Through the discussion, it became very clear that while hybrids are talked about a lot, they are still very, very young. As of July 1, 2009, hybrids represented less than 1% of the vehicles in operation. However, while currently not that significant, it is clearly viewed as the technology of the future. And, new technologies bring new challenges and that means new opportunities for the aftermarket.

The training available for technicians at this time is still very limited to only maintenance work and since these vehicles are still so new, it is too soon to determine what types of service issues they may be prone to.

All in all, the aftermarket needs to keep an eye on this small, but growing segment. Hybrids don’t appear to be going away, so we need to embrace and prepare for a very promising future.

Posted by Heidy Herrera, Account Representative, Aftermarket, Polk (01.26.10)

What were the top 10 questions from the OEM and OES delegates attending the Polk EuroCar Seminar in the UK on 20 January 2010?

1. If you could only do one thing with respect to marketing in this environment, what would it be or in what area would you focus?
2. You have covered a great deal of ground, what type of marketing has been most effective / impactful?
3. Are there any other challenges that 'keep you awake at night'?
4. Can you share with us where or from whom dealer network planning can be most improved?
5. Do you have a view about the demise of block exemption and the impact this will have?
6. Is the decrease in the Japan dealer network an indication of the direction European dealer networks are going?
7. With regard to CO2 emissions, hybrids and zero emission vehicles, do you have any insight into vehicle whole life costs?
8. Is the development of fuel efficient vehicles dependant on the oil price going to $600 a barrel?
9. What is the difference between plug-in hybrids, pure full hybrids and mild hybrids?
10. Do you have any evidence that customers are driving shorter distances as a result of economic conditions?

These questions are an indication of the themes foremost in delegate's minds. Watch the blog for answers to these questions.

Posted by Marcus Richardson, PolkConnect Programme Manager, Polk's Europe Operations (01.21.2010)

2009 will forever be remembered as an extremely turbulent year—filled with global automotive industry challenges. Global Light Vehicle sales for 2009 were approximately 61.9 million, down 5.1% from 2008. However, from a purely statistical point of view, the Global Automotive market demand seemed to be far more robust than expected at the beginning of 2009. November '09 sales were up 25% from the year before, and December '09 sales were up by about 22%! All together, fourth quarter sales were up about 17% over the final quarter of 2008, when sales bore the full brunt of the financial crisis.

Looking back we have to realize that demand was inflated by numerous government programs enacted to stimulate the automotive markets and as a result impact sales trends. On the other hand, it is astonishing how different the results were in most of the developed saturated automotive markets (e.g. the U.S.) compared to the upcoming "emerging markets" (e.g. China) which are still characterized by a very low density of vehicles on the road.

Stimulated by energetic government intervention, the global economy has stabilized in recent months so the basic economic outlook for 2010 is clearly better compared to the economic framework in 2009. Will the Global Automotive market follow this positive industry trend?

The latest Polk global light vehicle forecast report is available free for your download. This automotive forecast analyzes 2009 sales, Polk's economic outlook and light vehicle forecast for the year ahead. Take a look and let us know your expectations for 2010.

Global Light Vehicle Sales Forecast

Posted by Uwe Biastoch, Director Global Forecasting, Polk's Europe Operations (01.20.2010)

There has been much recent news and comment with respect to Europe and the sales environment looking ahead. We know from our own experience that the introduction of scrappage incentives can have positive influence whilst in effect, but can also have negative impacts on future vehicle sales. Further, our own analysis has identified unforeseen side effects relative to these programmes with reductions in loyalty rates. Once these programmes ended the loyalty rates returned to normal – demonstrating just how sensitive repeat buyers can be to these types of programmes.

With scrappage programmes coming to an end in Europe, and market-specific influences such as the VAT increase in the UK – it begs the question as to what we can expect in the years ahead.

We will be reviewing our most recent global automotive forecasts, with a detailed view on European Car Demand at a Polk EuroCar Seminar in the UK upcoming on 20 January 2010. For those attending, we look forward to reviewing these forecasts with you, and for those who cannot attend – we hope you will follow Polk’s Forecasting Dashboards or engage with us directly.

The current and projected sales trends have caused many vehicle manufacturers and dealers to increase their focus and attention on customer retention and related programmes. Customer loyalty and optimal aftersales programmes drive positive customer behaviours, and ultimately dealer and manufacturer profitability – key in the difficult sales environment. We will explore some of the best practices we have seen at the seminar, including such areas as predictive targeting and multi-channel integrated communications. Aftersales and service matter, and there are opportunities to succeed and drive results.

And whilst there is no doubting the impact of customer loyalty and retention, no brand can excel in these times without converting the highest percentage of active prospects. There are proven approaches to prioritising focus that generate demonstrable results in increasing conversion rates – and particularly with respect to internet leads. We will discuss our experience in this area at the seminar, and the broader effects the internet and social media are having on the industry.

These are indeed interesting times, but there remain opportunities for the taking.

Posted by Norm Marks, Vice President & Managing Director, Northern Europe, Polk (01.13.2010)

Light vehicle sales for 2009 were 10.4 million, the lowest level in 27 years and 21.2% lower than 2008. Polk predicts the light vehicle market will be 11.5 million units in 2010, according to its most recent U.S. automotive forecast. We believe wealth accumulation and improving consumer confidence added to GDP growth in the 4th quarter of 2009. We feel GDP growth in 2010 will be slow but steady at 2.9%.

It is clear that we are in a recovery; however, risks to the pace of economic growth remain. As Government stimulus programs end, consumers must have confidence to continue spending and businesses need to invest and hire, otherwise the economic recovery could slow in 2010.

We are encouraged by a light vehicle industry SAAR above 10 million for three consecutive months and record low inventories at dealerships. While industry levels remain far below their normal levels, there seems to be some momentum out there.

The latest Polk light vehicle forecast is available free for your download. This month's forecast discusses December 2009 sales, our economic outlook and our light vehicle forecast for the year ahead. I invite you to read the January edition of the forecast report available on Polk's forecasting dashboard. For a full copy of Polk’s U.S. Light Vehicle Forecast Report,  please visit Polk's Forecasting Dashboards today.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Forecast

Posted by Dave Goebel, North American Forecast Consultant, Polk (01.08.2010)

Top global auto manufacturers rely on Polk’s automotive forecasts to analyze, simulate and forecast short- and long-term vehicle demand. Now, you can access a free snapshot of our global forecast via the Polk Global Forecasting Dashboards.

You’ll find the latest analysis and predictions for select markets around the world. The new Polk Global Forecasting Dashboards will be updated regularly so check back often to ensure you have the most updated information.

Sample: Global Light Vehicle Development

Posted by Polk (12.15.2009)

Are you loyal? I'm not talking about loyal to your job, your friends or your breakfast cereal. I'm talking about your car...or the manufacturer of that car. I'm asking because it's a subject we think a lot about at Polk. So much so, that on January 12, 2010, Polk will be presenting the 14th Annual Polk Automotive Loyalty Awards at the Automotive News World Congress. Winners of these awards are automotive manufacturers that have demonstrated the ability to bring customers back through positive owner experiences. That means they took action—they came back and purchased or leased another vehicle of the same model, make or manufacturer. So, have you been loyal?

I've been loyal. When my first child became of a more social age, I was thrust into a world of school, birthday parties and soccer games. This meant a life of carpooling other people’s kids and their runny noses, sticky fingers and muddy cleats. And, while hiding under a rock would have been my preferred method of dealing with this, it became very clear to me, thanks to my wife, that a minivan would be the proper solution.

And so began my ongoing relationship with the Chevrolet Venture. Other than oil changes, the first lease offered no problems in the way of maintenance. It was reliable and kept me a good distance from the invading children I was forced to transport. The second lease was an equally good relationship. So much so, that with 0% financing, I bought the third. The reliability of the Venture made me loyal. So that's my story, what's yours?

Are you loyal to a specific make or model? Are you a loyal owner? We want to hear your story.

Posted by Jeff Stone, Senior Marketing Specialist, Polk (12.11.2009)

With the market tsunamis of 2008 and 2009, dealers and OEMs who have weathered the storm are viewing their business and markets differently than the earlier "roaring 2000s."

When new vehicle sales shrink from 17 million new units to 10.5 million, the overall cost structure of the retail channel and consumer spending compresses at the same rate. Dealerships, agencies, lead providers and CRM companies must adjust their automotive marketing efforts and budgets to address the new volumes of new and used vehicle sales, parts & service and Finance & Insurance penetration. The pure numbers from a customer traffic and transaction point are stressful, and the resources and data used in the past will not result in the same level of sales renewals and fixed operations retention.

So, how do dealers and marketers acquire new customers at a cost which is acceptable to their P&L requirements? They use Budget Prospecting to acquire new customers from the pool of orphan owners, first-time buyers, non-traditional loyalists and social network influencers.

Having the opportunity to attend conferences like Driving Sales and J.D. Power has provided me with a number of insights into the dynamics of our new retail environment and how to transition to the dynamics of budget prospecting.

Digital marketing, media spread and prospect targeting are now sciences which take constant feeding and balancing for customer retention. The constantly changing population base requires retailing efforts to focus on a combination of targeting points to effectively reach new prospects with pertinent and valuable offers, advice, community support and service to earn, retain and grow a business relationship through social networking.

To survive as one of 15,000 franchised dealers, the discipline of building prospects outside of your DMS name file and CRM marketing database requires significant effort for capturing the consumers at the bottom of the funnel. Also critical are consumers in the "lost zone" of orphan owners, first-time buyers and consumers who can be influenced on where to service their vehicles or purchase their next new or used vehicle.

All of this must be done with a cost per acquisition that meets the financial and ROI requirements of dealers, agencies and OEMs. Those who balance lead acquisition with "budget prospecting" will achieve long term growth strategies for their market and brand(s). They will continue to adapt and adjust to this changing and challenging market by growing sales, profit and market share. All of these "scorecard" evaluation points are keys to the health and ongoing transition and growth of the automotive retail channel.

Posted by Brad Korner, Director - Client Sales & Service, Automotive Retail Solutions, Polk (12.3.2009)

So there I was, sitting in my car at a local quick lube establishment, trying to stay awake, when I remembered I needed new wiper blades. I asked the attendant, who checked his stock and sadly told me he did not have blades that would fit my car. WHAT? How could that be? Sure my car is 12 years old...and a model that is no longer being built...by a brand that no longer exists. I still have the car and I still need to maintain it. I need this car, because I’m about to pass it down to my son as his first car. But I digress.

So why didn’t this oil change place have my wiper blades? They should know that there is a 12-year old Geo Prism in the area. It's basic parts and service etiquette! As a Polk employee I was curious to see what our vehicle population database said. So I did some research and there are 1,178 '97 Geo Prisms in the Detroit DMA. And nobody has a wiper blade for them?

But, maybe I'm being too harsh. The idea of stocking up for one specific vehicle is probably unreasonable, especially with all of the automotive industry challenges the aftermarket is currently facing. Yet, inventory efficiency is critical for automotive aftermarket companies. I know because I’ve been very fortunate to have met several companies that have implemented exceptional inventory management systems. These are the winners of Polk's Inventory Efficiency Award. How good are they? Check out their award-winning projects at: http://usa.polk.com/Industries/AfterMkt/videos.htm.

Want a deeper dive? Check out this case study about Uni-Select, a large automotive parts distributor who worked with Polk to develop an e-modeling tool to save their customers time and money. I think you will be impressed.

And hopefully the next time you need a car part—it will be in stock!

Posted by Jeffrey Stone, Senior Marketing Specialist, Polk (11.12.2009)

I keep getting told that traditional automotive marketing doesn't work anymore, "Paid search is the only thing you need. Without paid search, companies will experience corporate Armageddon and cease to exist."

"Social media! Without social media, your company will be spurned and become an outcast from society!"

"PURLS! You gotta use personal URLs or no one will listen to anything you say and you will be ignored and disowned by your family!"

Wow! Is there any hope?

Look, digital marketing works, but it doesn't guarantee success. And, the traditional methods—direct mail, radio, TV and outdoor— still work too, but there is no guarantee there either. There are so many factors involved: your budget, message, creative, offer, list/audience, demand for your product and service—it all plays a role.

The bottom line is that you need to understand your audience as best you can. Find out what buttons to push and then create a strong integrated campaign utilizing a variety of tactics that fit your need and your budget. But stop telling me that a banner ad will solve all my problems. It has to be the right banner ad, on the right site... if there is a right site for your message.

So go ahead, experiment. Have fun. Just make sure you have the right message for your audience. And if that doesn’t work, try yelling real loud... that will at least get you some attention.

Posted by Jeffrey Stone, Senior Marketing Specialist, Polk (10.21.2009)

Admittedly luck has played a role in my recent service experience but there is no doubt that my story is based on good service from not only the dealer but also the manufacturer.

It all started on Wednesday when my engine light went on and at the time, I thought it was the oil light (look liked an oil icon to me). I have a 2008 Volkswagen Passat and have not had to think about any service issues because the "multi-function trip computer" does it for me. In fact, that message appeared on Thursday morning telling me that I had to service in 1,500 miles or 2 days. Good, I had until Saturday to make the appointment, assuming my dealership was open on Saturday, which I later found out it was not.

On Friday, about a mile from my home, my engine hesitated for a nanosecond. Fortunately I was not in a precarious position with my car at the time. Confused I continued on my drive home. I pulled into my driveway and immediately the car stalled (as if it had given all it could to get back home). I started it again but after accelerating, it stalled again. After a few attempts, it refused to start. My car broke down in my driveway - what luck! I reached into the glove compartment to have a look at the manual and I noticed a brochure from VW showing that when I purchased the vehicle I received four years of free roadside service. I barely remembered this service but was happy to call the VW toll-free number on the spot. Relatively quickly I was connected to an agent who took my information and said a tow truck would be there in 45 minutes. I went into the house and within 5 minutes I received an automated confirmation call that a tow truck would be there. After only 15 minutes a tow truck showed up in my driveway. Barely after he departed my house I received another automated phone call asking me to confirm if he had been there or not. Talk about efficiency!

As requested by VW, I notified the dealership that the vehicle was on the way. They said they would look at it immediately and if they could not fix it right away they would provide me with a loaner vehicle free of charge. I received a phone call from them a few hours later and they had identified a problem with a fuel sensor. They could repair it that day at no charge and I could pick it up at my convenience (and after dealership hours). Since I was up for an oil change and tire rotation (remember "service in 2 days"), I had them do that as well. So everything was taken care of with minimal inconvenience and time invested on my part. I never even saw the Service Manager. Now that is service from both the dealer and the OEM!

And one final note. Talk about global. When I lived in Germany and had a VW there as well, I had a service incident. Just as VW contacted me regarding my service visit here within a couple days, they did the same when I had my service incident in Germany. VW not only closely monitors the customer's service visits at dealerships globally but they also do it in a timely manner!

Now that’s what I call service.

Posted by Sharon DeGroote, Product Strategist, Polk (10.20.2009)