Polk EuroCar Seminar – Network Planning Questions & Answers

Wednesday, February 10, 2010 by Guest Blogger
After the EuroCar Seminar on 20 January 2010, we posted the top ten questions asked by OEM and OES delegates in attendance. Today I will be answering the last few questions. I hope you have found all of our answers helpful. If you missed the answers to the previous questions, don’t forget to read the answers posted by Norm Marks regarding marketing and Thomas Mawick regarding hybrids.

Can you share with us where or from whom dealer network planning can be most improved?


All manufacturers in all countries have room for improvement... I believe that in Europe, German networks need restructuring most urgently. Surprisingly, importers suffer most; even if they had better possibilities to align locations strategically, they need to improve dealer performance and network efficiency. The focus of network planning should be on the key metro markets.

Besides the saturated markets, there will be a lot of network planning potential in the eastern European countries, especially Russia.

Do you have a view about the demise of block exemption and the impact this will have? 

Motor Vehicle Block Exemption Regulation ("BER") is the legislative framework for motor vehicle distribution and servicing agreements in the EU. In place since 2002, current regulation No. 1400/2002 was meant to pave the way for efficient competition within the European markets and caused some significant changes in dealer networks such as discontinuation of location clause or multi-franchising trends.

With the current regulation expiring in a couple of months, the question is valid whether we have to expect further significant changes. The European Commission has not yet approved any new regulation so it's hard to say what the impact will be in detail. But from the recent drafts seen, here are a couple of issues:
  • New BER is anticipated in June for service but for sales there will be a transition time until 2013. In my opinion, we must not separate regulations for new vehicle sales and aftersales business. I have outlined how important integrated sales and service functions are for both dealers and manufacturers – Vertical BER does not help this way.
  • Vertical BER allows brand exclusivity contracts for up to a 5 year contract period, while automotive BER does not. Multi-brand dealerships are on average underperforming, therefore I have no doubt that manufacturers will make use of this exclusivity option. For many multi-franchise businesses this could mean that recent investments will not pay for themselves.
  • And finally a legal issue: the principle of legal certainty is not given for those manufacturers and/or dealers which exceed 30% market share.
Is the decrease in the Japanese dealer network an indication of the direction European dealer networks are going?

Indeed we could see some dealer terminations recently and domestic manufacturers already cut their networks in Japan or plan to do so. But it is not quite the same downsizing trend as in Europe or North America; dealer networks in Japan are relatively stable. The reason why we might see a decline in dealer contracts is different from Europe and the US. There are two market characteristics which make Japanese networks unique: first, Japan has a broader range of models in the market and second, dealerships and showrooms are commonly very small. As a result, many manufacturers sell different models through different sales channels. A large domestic OEM used to have two channels. But when they got into financial trouble in the early 2000s they reduced the number of models and scaled back the workforce. Hence both dealers, channel 1 and 2, were in fact close to each other selling the same models. Polk supported a network reduction (consolidation) project in 2005 to identify optimally located channel 1 or channel 2 dealers that could be expanded to handle the sales capacity of two former showrooms.

We hope that our answers have helped you. Feel free to comment if there’s anything you feel we've overlooked or if you have any comments.

If you could not attend the UK seminar, click here to find out about the upcoming Global Network Planning Trends Webinar.

Posted by Tanja Linken, Team Lead Network Management, Europe, Polk (02.10.10)

Polk EuroCar Seminar – Hybrid Questions & Answers

Monday, February 8, 2010 by Guest Blogger
After the EuroCar Seminar on 20 January 2010, we posted the top ten questions asked by OEM and OES delegates in attendance. Today I will be answering questions pertaining to hybrids. If you missed Norm Marks answers to the Marketing questions, you can find them here. Tanja Linken will be answering questions aboout Network Planning in the next blog entry.

With regard to CO2 emissions, hybrids and zero emission vehicles, do you have any insight into vehicle whole life costs?

This question targets the cost of vehicle construction, battery cost including disposal and the vehicle running costs. The variety of calculations regarding life costs is still quite large. While it is not yet clear whether the retail prices for hybrid vehicles allow for a financial break-even to occur, in some premium models the hybrid drive is extremely expensive which can prevent a break-even from happening. The highest costs in car driving appear to be the loss in value on the one hand and the running costs (mainly fuel). So very much depends on the residual values for alternative cars and their general acceptance and the price relationship between the different fuel types in the future. The term "zero emission vehicles" is also a bit misleading as EVs (electric vehicles) do not emit while driving, but they still need energy for battery recharging. Dependent on the energy mix used in the production process, EVs might emit more CO2 than small diesel or petrol engines.

Is the development of fuel efficient vehicles dependent on the oil price going to $600 a barrel?

There are different scenarios regarding the future oil price development. Polk expects a price of ~$130 towards 2020, others expect $300 or even $600 per barrel. During 2008, oil became quite expensive with almost $150/barrel by the middle of that year. The pressure to develop alternative drives for cars increased. New regulations (e.g., those related to fleet consumption and CO2 emissions) force the public to reduce the fuel consumption of their vehicles. We expect to see both an improvement in conventional combustion technology by engine downsizing, optimized engines, start-stop systems, etc., as well as an expanded model offer in advanced technologies like hybrid or EV. With higher oil prices, there will be higher pressure to develop new technologies as well as pressure to reach financial break-even points for alternative energies.

What is the difference between plug-in hybrids, pure full hybrids and mild hybrids?

A plug-in hybrid vehicle is similar to a conventional full hybrid vehicle—both use a combustion engine as well as an electric motor. However, a plug-in hybrid uses larger battery packs that can be recharged by connecting to common household electricity. In full hybrid vehicles, the electric motor and the internal combustion engine are installed so that they can both individually or jointly power the vehicle. For shorter distances the vehicle can be propelled in its EV mode solely, which eliminates emissions. Mild hybrids use a generally compact electric motor to give extra output during the acceleration, and to generate on the deceleration phase. With mild hybrids, the vehicle cannot be powered by the electric motor exclusively.

Do you have any evidence that customers are driving shorter distances as a result of economic conditions?

At the moment we don't have any evidence for this development. The tightening of economic conditions has affected all kinds of industries dealing with transportation. Nevertheless private mobility is of common interest. With the overall trend of rising costs of ownership, the private driving behaviour might change and result in decreasing mileage, but this depends on the development of the costs of alternative means of transportation.

Thank you for taking the time to read my blog entry. If I left anything out that you would like answered, please submit a comment and I will be happy to address it!

Posted by Thomas Mawick, Manager, Automotive Studies, Europe, Polk (02.08.10)

The Polk EuroCar Seminar – Marketing Questions & Answers

Thursday, February 4, 2010 by Guest Blogger
After the EuroCar Seminar on 20 January 2010, we posted the top ten questions asked by OEM and OES delegates in attendance. Today I will answer the three marketing questions. The remaining questions will be answered by Tanja Linken and Thomas Mawick.

1. If you could only do one thing with respect to marketing in this environment, what would it be or in what area would you focus?

We must optimize automotive marketing both for new vehicle sales and aftersales. That said, aftersales marketing has been an area that in my opinion has not received an appropriate level of attention. There are numerous opportunities to better communicate effectively with customers during their ownership period. These efforts have strong impacts on the customer experience at both a OE and dealer brand level.

2. You have covered a great deal of ground, what type of automotive marketing has been most effective/impactful?


Programmes that focus on customer loyalty and retention with demonstrable ROI are perhaps the most effective marketing initiatives given the efficient use of precious marketing resources. In a difficult sales environment, long term loyalty really matters.

3. Are there any other marketing challenges that ‘keep you awake at night’?

One marketing challenge that keeps me awake at night is the reliance on incentives in order to sell new vehicles. This poses a dilemma when incentives aren't always available yet sales targets need to be met. By and large, OEMs recognize this challenge, yet many struggle with breaking the cycle of providing generous incentives.

I hope this answers your questions. Feel free to comment on this blog if you have anymore questions or insights. Watch the blog for the upcoming responses to the network planning and hybrid related questions in the next few days.

Posted by Norm Marks, Vice President, Sales & Client Services; Managing Director Northern Europe, Polk (02.04.10)


Polk EuroCar Seminar – Top 10 Questions

Thursday, January 21, 2010 by Guest Blogger

What were the top 10 questions from the OEM and OES delegates attending the Polk EuroCar Seminar in the UK on 20 January 2010?

  1. If you could only do one thing with respect to marketing in this environment, what would it be or in what area would you focus?
  2. You have covered a great deal of ground, what type of marketing has been most effective / impactful?
  3. Are there any other challenges that 'keep you awake at night'?
  4. Can you share with us where or from whom dealer network planning can be most improved?
  5. Do you have a view about the demise of block exemption and the impact this will have?
  6. Is the decrease in the Japan dealer network an indication of the direction European dealer networks are going?
  7. With regard to CO2 emissions, hybrids and zero emission vehicles, do you have any insight into vehicle whole life costs?
  8. Is the development of fuel efficient vehicles dependant on the oil price going to $600 a barrel?
  9. What is the difference between plug-in hybrids, pure full hybrids and mild hybrids?
  10. Do you have any evidence that customers are driving shorter distances as a result of economic conditions?

These questions are an indication of the themes foremost in delegate's minds. Watch the blog for answers to these questions.

Posted by Marcus Richardson, PolkConnect Programme Manager, Polk's Europe Operations (01.21.2010)

2009 Global Light Vehicle Sales and Polk's Outlook for 2010

Wednesday, January 20, 2010 by Guest Blogger

2009 will forever be remembered as an extremely turbulent year—filled with global automotive industry challenges. Global Light Vehicle sales for 2009 were approximately 61.9 million, down 5.1% from 2008. However, from a purely statistical point of view, the Global Automotive market demand seemed to be far more robust than expected at the beginning of 2009. November '09 sales were up 25% from the year before, and December '09 sales were up by about 22%! All together, fourth quarter sales were up about 17% over the final quarter of 2008, when sales bore the full brunt of the financial crisis.

Looking back we have to realize that demand was inflated by numerous government programs enacted to stimulate the automotive markets and as a result impact sales trends. On the other hand, it is astonishing how different the results were in most of the developed saturated automotive markets (e.g. the U.S.) compared to the upcoming "emerging markets" (e.g. China) which are still characterized by a very low density of vehicles on the road.

Stimulated by energetic government intervention, the global economy has stabilized in recent months so the basic economic outlook for 2010 is clearly better compared to the economic framework in 2009. Will the Global Automotive market follow this positive industry trend?

The latest Polk global light vehicle forecast report is available free for your download. This automotive forecast analyzes 2009 sales, Polk's economic outlook and light vehicle forecast for the year ahead. Take a look and let us know your expectations for 2010.

Global Light Vehicle Sales Forecast

Posted by Uwe Biastoch, Director Global Forecasting, Polk's Europe Operations (01.20.2010)

Challenging European Market Dynamics – 2010 and Beyond

Wednesday, January 13, 2010 by Guest Blogger

There has been much recent news and comment with respect to Europe and the sales environment looking ahead. We know from our own experience that the introduction of scrappage incentives can have positive influence whilst in effect, but can also have negative impacts on future vehicle sales. Further, our own analysis has identified unforeseen side effects relative to these programmes with reductions in loyalty rates. Once these programmes ended the loyalty rates returned to normal – demonstrating just how sensitive repeat buyers can be to these types of programmes.

With scrappage programmes coming to an end in Europe, and market-specific influences such as the VAT increase in the UK – it begs the question as to what we can expect in the years ahead.

We will be reviewing our most recent global automotive forecasts, with a detailed view on European Car Demand at a Polk EuroCar Seminar in the UK upcoming on 20 January 2010. For those attending, we look forward to reviewing these forecasts with you, and for those who cannot attend – we hope you will follow Polk’s Forecasting Dashboards or engage with us directly.

The current and projected sales trends have caused many vehicle manufacturers and dealers to increase their focus and attention on customer retention and related programmes. Customer loyalty and optimal aftersales programmes drive positive customer behaviours, and ultimately dealer and manufacturer profitability – key in the difficult sales environment. We will explore some of the best practices we have seen at the seminar, including such areas as predictive targeting and multi-channel integrated communications. Aftersales and service matter, and there are opportunities to succeed and drive results.

And whilst there is no doubting the impact of customer loyalty and retention, no brand can excel in these times without converting the highest percentage of active prospects. There are proven approaches to prioritising focus that generate demonstrable results in increasing conversion rates – and particularly with respect to internet leads. We will discuss our experience in this area at the seminar, and the broader effects the internet and social media are having on the industry.

These are indeed interesting times, but there remain opportunities for the taking.

Posted by Norm Marks, Vice President & Managing Director, Northern Europe, Polk (01.13.2010)

Ford Continues to Connect

Tuesday, January 5, 2010 by Therran Oliphant

If you're like me, you're probably wondering why Ford has come out with a new product in the Medium Duty Commercial Vehicle Market segment this fiscal year, when industry sales are expected to be weaker than original forecasts. If you did wonder, then you haven't seen the Ford Transit Connect. An unabashed, small (don't dare call it mini) van that promises to be the vehicle version of a multi-tasking child that is watching television, playing a computer game, and text messaging their friends all at the same time.

The six-foot six-inch height is surprising and creates a roomy, if not downright capacious space for whatever application the owner can imagine. Plus, Edmunds lists the vehicle with a 23 mpg fuel rating and 135 cu. ft. of cargo space all at a price tag of $20.8K - welcome specs for the small business owner looking to save, in all areas of their business, without sacrificing quality. If you need power, though, then this vehicle may not be for you. The 4 cylinder engine is only putting out 128 lbs. ft. of torque at 4750 rpm. The horsepower story isn't much better with 136 hp at 6300 rpm.

I still think this vehicle has the opportunity to be a game-changing crossover in the commercial and consumer vehicle markets alike. The large space gives contractors, small business owners and shuttle services the opportunity to use a smaller, more fuel efficient vehicle with enough room to handle all of their needs. For the consumer, the Transit Connect has an optional three-across bench style second row seat. This could mean a multitude of uses for drivers with wheelchairs, families with an active lifestyle, small bands and folks who simply dig the quirkiness of the vehicle.

Ford has also reached out to the earth friendly crowd - they will be happy to know that Consumer Reports mentioned Ford's plans to come out with a battery-electric hybrid version this year. It seems as though the hits just keep on coming for Ford as they add to the ever-popular Mustang muscle car and F-Series trucks with the Connect, redesigned Fusion and Taurus. Suddenly Ford's vehicle lineup is looking quite strong and attractive. They may even prompt me to take the, "Have you driven a Ford lately" challenge to heart, and actually drive one instead of simply answering, "No."

I am excited to start seeing these vehicles on the road here in the U.S. instead of pictures from Europe but I'm even more excited to see what effect the vehicle will have on the industry trend to produce larger - more powerful and roomy - but less efficient vehicles. What effect do you think the new Ford Transit Connect will have on the market?

Posted by Therran Oliphant, Account Representative, Commercial Vehicle Truck Group, Polk (01.05.2010)

Little Cars, Big Price Tags

Tuesday, November 24, 2009 by Margaret Zewatsky

Small cars can provide ultra luxury, too! Luxury OEMs, Rolls Royce and Aston Martin have both announced new releases of small cars in Europe.

Rolls Royce recently announced they are planning to release a special edition Mini Cooper in 2010. Mini Cooper and Rolls Royce are both owned by parent company, BMW. It makes sense to offer a minicar to wealthy Rolls Royce owner garages that is easy on the environment, yet still allows the posh comforts to which they are accustomed.

Aston Martin is also working on a minicar called the Cygnet for the European market. The Cygnet will help the automaker comply with the 2012 emissions regulation. Aston Martin is partnering with Toyota to utilize the iQ platform, but the exterior and interior plans are said to meet the Aston Martin luxury expectations. In the recent minicar analysis I wrote, titled "Will Super Small Cars Generate Super Small Sales", the Cygnet, included in the Western European automotive forecast, was expected to sell 625 units in Western Europe by 2014.

So the big question... With a Mini Cooper starting at $20K and a Rolls Royce Phantom going for $380K+, how much will the Mini Cooper Rolls Royce Edition cost? Anyone ready to place an order?

Posted by Margaret Zewatsky, Global Market Analyst, Polk (11.24.2009)

The Automotive Aftermarket Industry Keeps up with the Ever-Changing Automobile

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 by Bertrand Rakoto

This has been a difficult year with many automotive industry challenges; consequently, marketing budgets have been cut significantly. I attended EquipAuto 2009 for the fifth time as a visitor, and the second time as an exhibitor. I must say that the show left me with a funny feeling.

Despite rumors of cancellation, the exhibition took place from the 13th to the 18th of October in the North of Paris. The limited number of exhibitors meant that the surface was reduced from six to two halls. I was even more surprised to discover that these two halls were not full. Last minute budget shortages left so many holes, it was like navigating your way through a piece of Swiss cheese. It really was unusual to have such a low turnout of exhibitors, yet the increased visibility worked to our advantage. The attendants could spend time on stands, discussing the technologies and the innovations.

The event included the traditional tooling, servicing and hardware exhibitors showing usual products supported by new sales concepts -- those mainly acting in the independent aftermarket. I've noticed the growing importance of computers in the traditional parts & service industry. The image of the greasy mechanic dressed in blue is quickly being replaced by a clean consultant, checking databases and launching programs to give you the expected answers and service for your car.

I noticed something else different – it seems the first steps are being taken to follow the path required by the many new regulations for environmentally-friendly cars. After years of heavy cars and big engines, we are living through a major change to more efficient, lighter, and safer cars. And to support that, parts and service suppliers brought new things to the table -- new technologies that go along with drastic reductions of carbon emissions. I’m talking about the growing number of dry cleaning solutions, the LED suppliers, the catalytic converters fabricants, etc. Innovations are following the evolution of cars. The more than necessary reaction and adaptation to change within the industry is finally here. It is costly, but the adaptation to the upcoming cars is necessary, especially since the scrappage premiums and the CO2 regulations in Europe are accelerating the phenomenon. Although, the crisis been difficult on the industry, the creativity and innovation remain!

Posted by Bertrand Rakoto, Analyst for Marketing and Consulting, Polk (11.11.2009)

Why Won't Ford Sell a Minicar in the U.S.?

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 by Margaret Zewatsky

The Ford Ka minicar, popular in Europe, will not be sold in the U.S. In an article by Automotive News released on November 9, Alan Mulally said the Ka is too small for American tastes. Aside from me immediately agreeing with him, I thought of the recent minicar analysis I wrote titled, "Will Super Small Cars Generate Super Small Sales". The market for minicars in the U.S. is small -- the segment is not forecasted to grow greater than 1% of the U.S. market. If I were an OEM prioritizing my U.S. lineup for the next 5 years, I would consider skipping the minicar segment and focusing on the B segment and the crossovers. Yet Fiat, GM, BMW, Hyundai, Toyota, and Volkswagen are all planning launches within the next 5 years, so there must be some common rationale for offering a minicar.

All this makes me wonder...

  • Are so many manufacturers launching minicars to ensure they meet the new CAFE standards?
  • Will the automotive forecast hold true or will the American consumer start demanding minicars and if so, will the OEMs be ready?
  • Is Ford trying to make the most of the Fiesta launch in early 2010 and drive more volume by not launching a minicar?
  • Or is Alan Mulally right and the B segment vehicles are the smallest cars Americans will purchase?

What do you think?

Photo of the Ford Ka

Posted by Margaret Zewatsky, Global Market Analyst, Polk (11.10.2009)

Join Polk at AAPEX 2009 to Discuss "The New Global Automotive Aftermarket"

Monday, October 19, 2009 by Guest Blogger

Join me and my colleagues from Polk on November 3rd-5th at AAPEX 2009, located in the Sands Expo Center at the Venetian Hotel in Las Vegas, NV. On November 3rd, Uwe Biastoch and I will present: "The New Global Automotive Outlook—What Will the Recovery in Global Volumes Mean to You?"

The global automotive aftermarket industry is at a crossroads. Challenges of the global economy, reductions in global vehicle demand, the contrast between saturated and emerging vehicle markets, changes to the automotive manufacturing landscape, and new players looking to dominate the global stage... what does all this mean to you? Come hear how the ever-changing global automotive forecast is expected to change our industry in the years to come.

You’ll learn about:

  • The economic outlook of the U.S., Europe and Asia
  • How new vehicle registrations, production and the global vehicle population are expected to change in the coming years
  • How the global aftermarket may evolve in years to come

Meanwhile, Polk will be displaying its data-driven solutions for the global Automotive Aftermarket & Commercial Vehicle industries at the 2009 Automotive Aftermarket Products Expo (AAPEX). Stop by Polk Booth #838, to learn how Polk can help you address some of your toughest business challenges:

  • Information Process Management
  • Inventory Management
  • Forecasting
  • Global Vehicle Volume Analysis
  • Target Marketing
  • VIN Decoding
  • Recall Campaigns
  • Commercial Aftermarket Demand
  • Fleet Profiling
  • And More

Click here for more information or to register. We’re looking forward to seeing you there!

Posted by Dave Goebel, North American Forecast Consultant, Polk (10.19.2009)

Minicars for Mini-Markets?

Thursday, October 8, 2009 by Guest Blogger

About half the size of a Ford F150 pickup truck, minicars get great gas mileage, are reasonably priced and have a distinctive style inside and out. Minicars are on their way to the U.S. in a big way with six OEMs investing in new minicar launches over the next 5 years to compete with the already launched Smart Fortwo. In the soon to launch models, such as the Volkswagen Up! and Scion IQ, you can expect to get upwards of 65 miles per gallon for a price that is light on the wallet, too. With a VW Up! starting at $9K or a premium packaged Fiat 500 starting at $16K, this should be a deal for many.

Although the minicar segment may be relatively new to the U.S. market, it's an established segment in automotive markets across the globe from Western Europe to China and India. In 2008 there was only 1 minicar (Smart Fortwo) available in the U.S., but in Western Europe there were 48 and in China there were 18 models for sale. Polk’s automotive forecast projects the minicar segment in the U.S. to remain below 1% of all light vehicle sales through 2014 despite growing over 500% from 2008 to 2014.

If you want to learn more, we just released a Polk View titled "Will Super Small Cars Generate Super Big Sales?" The Polk View discusses topics relating to the minicar segment’s sales trends in Western Europe, China and the U.S.; how these minicars have redefined small spaces; who are likely buyers for the soon to launch minicar models in the U.S.; and what's the motivation for OEMs introducing mincars to the U.S.

I invite you to read the article and let me know your thoughts about how minicars will be received throughout the globe, who will buy them and would you consider buying one yourself?

Posted by Margaret Zewatsky, Global Market Analyst, Polk (10.08.2009)

An American Mom at the Frankfurt Motorshow

Tuesday, September 29, 2009 by Cristina Foster

Earlier this month, I had the great pleasure of visiting our Ford customers in Europe and attending the Frankfurt Motorshow. What a spectacular event! I have never seen so many cars in my life. It was so interesting to see so many brands -- all of the OEMs did a great job decking out the vehicles! With so many choices, it makes the torturous decision of choosing a car in America seem like a trip through the McDonald’s drive-thru. My colleagues were impressed with the number and variety of compact models available. All the while I was wondering, "Is this really what European Moms drive? Where do you put the soccer stuff? How would you keep three kids from driving you nuts in the back of that car when they are touching each other the whole time?" and lastly, "How much?!"

I decided to look for a vehicle for an American Mom.

The requirements changed as I walked around and raised the bar on expectations and lowered the bar on price. I did not consider many European requirements like CO2 emissions and gas prices. The brand perception was ignored despite my colleagues scoffing at some of my excitement over some of the "lower end" brands. We set the "not to exceed" price point very arbitrarily at 40,000€ (about $60,000 at current conversion rates) which is far above any price that I have ever paid for a car.

I created my own categories for four different awards: Overall Value Leader, Coolest Cargo Area, Best Affordable Interior and American Mom Vehicle. So here's my view.

Overall Value Leader: Renault Dacia Logan

 

The Dacia Logan (pronounced Dah-cha) has a low priced MPV and offers the most space for your money. With a starting point of 8,500€, you can get a 5-seater with plenty of leg room, a basic radio and tons of cargo space. A 7-seater is available for a little more money. I thought it was definitely a vehicle after the heart of my frugal brother-in-law. Decked out, it costs 14,000€ and seemed like a perfect fit for young families.

Coolest Cargo Area: Skoda Yeti

This offers the BEST implementation of cargo space I have ever seen. It has a large open space with nifty little gadgets for hanging shopping bags and arranging grocery bags and soccer bags so that the dirty cleats don't touch the bread. It has a neat little cargo area flash light that snaps out and is magnetic so it sticks to the side of the car in case you get a flat.

 

Best Affordable Interior: Citroen C4 Picasso

 

Favorite features include: cup holders and tray tables for the kids, a tiny mirror on the rearview mirror that you can move to see the kids. This would come in handy for catching my son punching his sister. The front window is enormous and offers awesome visibility and extended visors. The Picasso includes a very nice trim, it is very stylish and also roomy.

American Mom Vehicle: Ford Grand C-Max

This is truly an American Mom vehicle! Just like an American minivan, it is affordable (at least from European standards, about $50K). I was glad to see Ford offer this type of vehicle to the European market. I was also very happy to hear that it will be coming to the US. Ford has been missing a minivan here for a long time! All the standard American features are there; roomy, automatic sliding doors (very unusual in Euro vehicles), nice trim, good visibility, navigation system; perfect for a mob of soccer players.

 

Although it was very exciting to see the stylish Euro cars and all the different varieties of compact cars, I'm glad that I have roomier, less expensive choices in the states that are more suited to my needs as an American Soccer Mom. It will be interesting to see if more of these compact cars start to make their way state-side and how the Americans react to them.

Posted by Cristina Foster, Vice President, Ford Team, Polk (09.29.2009)

Diesel Dilemma in the U.S.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009 by Guest Blogger

Why don't small diesel cars get bought or sold in the U.S.? The last time you were in Europe up to 40% of the cars driving next to you were diesels. They were getting up to 60 MPG and didn’t have complex recharging systems or heavy batteries. Could you tell? They weren’t smoking, they didn’t sound like an F350, they were probably going to last longer than the petrol version next to them and they are great mid and small sized cars. This industry trend seems almost absent in the U.S. consumer marketplace.

If you could buy the new Taurus as a Turbo Diesel and get 40 MPG, would you? If you could buy the same Saab, Audi or BMW that you buy here in the U.S. today and get double the mileage with none of the hybrid costs or future headaches of replacing batteries – would you? I know I would.

If you wouldn't buy one, why not? Most of these vehicles have been engineered to meet U.S. vehicle safety and crash standards. The diesel that you can buy here in the U.S. is now clean enough to put in their highly tuned engines without destroying them. What is stopping the OEMs from bringing them over by the boatload? VW is making a start – their TDIs appear to be selling well but this is a small manufacturer with few models. Is it really public opinion of diesels that is driving manufacturer behavior? Has there been no consumer research to gauge loyalty for this forgotten automotive engine segment? Or are the manufacturers overstating consumer concern and missing a huge opportunity to improve U.S. fuel consumption on new vehicles... and limiting consumer choices? I know that when I buy my next vehicle, it will be a diesel since I commute 86 miles to work each day.

Posted by Chris Royle, Director, Global Product Strategy, Polk (09.15.09)

Scrappage Incentives Hurt Diesel Car Sales in Europe

Wednesday, September 2, 2009 by Guest Blogger

Everyone is talking about the market turbulences caused by the governmental scrappage schemes in different European countries. Much has been made of the fact that many consumers have "pre-bought" in 2009, which will have a negative effect on the sales trend in 2010. But, nobody is really talking about how the scrappage schemes have changed the market structure. I decided to look at the effect of the scrappage schemes on diesel-powered cars to see what the effect on that important vehicle segment might have been.

I found that the scrappage schemes had a significant and negative effect on diesel car sales. During 2008, the long-term upward trend of increased European market share for diesel vehicles came to an end, peaking at about 51% of total new car registrations. In contrast, during the first seven months of 2009, the share of diesel cars in the European market share fell to 45%.

Diesel Share Europe

Why did the scrappage incentives cause diesel sales to fall? People bought a heavier level of mini and small cars during the scrappage incentive period, which took away from diesel sales. As consumers who purchase mini and small vehicles typically use them for urban driving, they don't find that spending the extra money for diesel cars is justified by the savings in fuel costs. Also, since there are fewer diesel models in small or lower vehicle segments, consumers bought more non-diesel models as a result of the incentive programs.

Here is an example of the shift from diesel sales: In the German market for the first seven months, the share of diesel vehicles fell by 14 percentage points to 30% this year. I have not seen this low level of diesel penetration since about 10 years ago.

Diesel Share Germany

While we have to assume a total sales volume reduction in markets that are currently heavily supported by scrappage programs when the programs end, we also expect a normalisation in the market structures. We would expect to see sales in the small vehicle segment go down next year, which will automatically cause the market share of diesel vehicles to increase because of the higher diesel penetration in larger vehicle segments.

The scrappage schemes have given auto analysts a hard time – it is essential for them to get quick and detailed data in order to analyze the sales trends and distinguish short-term market reactions from real industry trends. From my perspective, the reduction in diesel sales is one example of a short-term sales trend.

Posted by Thomas Mawick, Manager, Automotive Studies, Polk, Essen, Germany (09.02.2009)

Cash for Clunkers' Success – Who Could Have Known?

Tuesday, August 4, 2009 by Guest Blogger
Wow...who could have ever imagined all of the buzz, national and local advertising, dealer showroom traffic, new car sales and "trickle down" business the tremendously successfully "Cash for Clunkers" (or CARS Car Allowance Rebate System) would create? Just one week after officially starting on July 24th, the program is already "out of gas," having spent all of the $1Billon of incentive money behind it. Last week, the House of Representatives quickly passed a bill providing an additional $2 billion in funding to the popular, but already cash-strapped program, but the additional funding faces a tough battle for approval in the Senate this week.

But who could have known just how popular Cash for Clunkers would be??? Early indicators included:
  • Consumer polling conducted by Polk before the program began was an early indication of its likely success, with almost two-thirds (64%) of respondents expressing interest in the program. In addition to the savings, improved fuel economy and a desire to help the environment were reasons consumers gave for interest in the program.
  • The huge success of similar "scrappage" programs in Europe that the U.S. Cash for Clunkers was modeled after was another early indication this program was going to be big.
  • There was so much interest in the program that the government’s CARS website for dealers to register for certification in the program crashed due to the overwhelming volume when automobile dealers across the country began enrolling on June 24th.
  • High levels of local, regional and national automotive advertising signaled the industry was ramping up and getting ready for the program well in advance.
Chrysler’s Cash for Clunkers marketing program may have been most successful of all the OEM programs since it addressed the main factor limiting participation identified in our research – people not having a clunker to trade. Three days before the program started, Chrysler used an extensive national advertising campaign to announce that it would match the government's incentive, or give zero percent financing, to those with a qualifying clunker. People with no clunker to turn in were guaranteed $4,500 - $3,500 off a new vehicle. Overwhelming demand quickly depleted dealer inventories and filled their parking lots with "clunkers," leading to an early cancellation of the program. 

While official industry sales figures are not in yet, early indications are that the Cash for Clunkers program, which ran for just one week in July, will result in some of the largest monthly sales totals over the past few years for many manufacturers, and slowed declines for others who did not have aggressive programs augmenting the government program.

While the bill's fate is in the hands of the Senate and remains uncertain, many in the auto industry are anxiously awaiting its extension so they can continue to enjoy sales levels unlike they’ve seen in years.

Posted by Bruce Giffin, Market Research Manager, Polk (08.04.2009)

Cash for Clunkers - Clarity Counts

Monday, July 13, 2009 by Lonnie Miller

I was on a web panel last week that addressed how dealers can market to customers and leverage the U.S. "Cash for Clunker" program starting later this month. It's amazing how many questions surfaced about the implementation of this program and the questions that remain in the minds of dealers about what to expect once customers start calling them. The folks at NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) have no small chore to get everyone running a dealership up to speed on this program.

From an automotive marketing view, here are some things dealers can do to prepare and capitalize on the showroom traffic the Cash for Clunkers program will hopefully create:

  1. Check in on your past customer base. The $3,500 - $4,500 incentives tied to the Cash for Clunkers program give dealers a perfect reason to reconnect with their past clientele in hopes of building further customer loyalty.
  2. Look at the vehicle mix in your local market. Find out what the dominant vehicle age and vehicle segments (e.g., minivan, SUV, small car) are that define your trade area.  And be highly conscious of the domestic and import brand mix in your area. A lot of the qualifying vehicles will be domestic nameplates. 
  3. Buy outside marketing lists. At my company, we provide analytically-based targeting tools that help marketers (dealers, OEMs, ad agencies) spend less money on targeting campaigns by using information that's refined to hit the audience they wish to reach. This week, we just launched a targeting model to help find households likely to own a "clunker." 
  4. Don't use the word "scrappage" when describing this program to the public in your advertising. The phrase "cash for clunkers" is more common and will result in better web hits from prospective customers. "Scrappage" has been used widely in Europe to describe similar programs, but it doesn't seem to be descriptive enough for the U.S.
  5. Make sure you have inventory in stock to enable someone to buy the type of car that fits this Cash for Clunker program. And if you're a dealer who doesn't want to order new units right now (due to inventory and carrying cost concerns), start looking for relevant dealer trades with other stores.
  6. Dealers should talk to the OEM marketing reps. I'm aware of several national programs that the automakers are working on to help drive traffic to their dealer network. Find out what is coming, if anything. 
  7. Don't forget to integrate deals from other incentives/promotions with the Cash for Clunker incentive. 
  8. Lastly, use what's fundamentally worked in the past to draw in people who are likely to buy a new vehicle. Remember, this is still about selling a new car or truck, so some of the proven marketing messages and techniques should still be considered when getting the attention of the "clunker" audience. 
The results of this government-sponsored program should be interesting to watch. My hope is it not only gets people into the dealer showrooms, but it also gives the average citizen a strong message that there's commitment from the government to rebuild our economy. This is one way to get the economy back on its feet while also helping the automotive industry.

Posted by Lonnie Miller, Director of Industry Analysis, Polk (07.13.2009) 

"Cash for Clunkers" - It's a Start

Friday, June 26, 2009 by Lonnie Miller

This week, President Obama signed the “cash for clunkers” bill.  So let’s talk about the impact this will have on auto sales this year. In case the basics of this bill are foreign to you, it's essentially a cash incentive. The goal is to motivate us to turn in an older vehicle (that has to then be destroyed) and purchase a new one. The government will provide a voucher worth up to $4,500 to help pay for the new set of wheels. And, you have to buy a new vehicle that’s more fuel efficient than the older one you’re turning in. 

How will this affect automotive sales trends?

Obviously, there have been a lot of estimates on how many more auto sales this type of government program will create.  To those hoping the automotive industry challenges facing so many can be put to rest, this legislation is one source of optimism. But, it can only go so far.

One thing to realize is that the funding for this bill was decreased to $1 billion dollars, down from a reported $4 billion in its earlier version.  Given the current details of the cash for clunkers bill and the dynamics of the car market right now, we know the bill can only fund roughly 200,000 additional sales.  While this newly-signed bill won’t make or break the year for any auto manufacturer, it’s a good sign of commitment to help stimulate sales and hopefully add to rebuilding consumer confidence. 

While sales of new cars or trucks are down across the globe, many countries in Western Europe implemented similar legislation earlier this year (aka "scrappage programs").  Between January and May 2009, roughly 500,000 additional passenger vehicles sold due to cash for clunkers programs in various European countries (here's a recent Polk press release on this).  By the time 2009 closes, it’s expected that more than 1.3 million additional sales in that part of the globe will occur. 

This is only one piece of a larger economic reform plan to get the U.S. economy back on its feet.  Selling cars is one part of that formula.  Will it be the single biggest deal benefitting our industry right now? No. But at a local level, it’ll drive traffic into the dealerships...and maybe give a few dealers some much needed cash flow now versus later. Those looking to get a deal on a new car or truck would be smart to see if they qualify...and take the money while it's still available.

Posted by Lonnie Miller, Director of Industry Analysis, Polk (06.26.2009)