Initially the chart below may look like some spaghetti thrown against the wall. But there are several important patterns that emerge from this illustration of retail registrations as a percentage of total new vehicle registrations. First, retail mix peaks in the third quarter, which makes sense since this is when the new model year products are launched. At this time, dealers are most receptive to new models, and the shortfall between production and retail demand is at an ebb.
Note that the third quarter spike in 2009 was below that seen in other years, reflecting the fact that the industry collapsed at this time and the need to move production to fleet was exceptionally high. Also, during this past fall, the retail mix (87%) surpassed that of any of the past five years, suggesting the OEMs' stated plans to more closely match production to retail demand has been put into practice.
In both 2005 and 2006, the three mainstream domestic brands were the only ones consistently below the industry average for retail mix. However, as 2006 progressed, Kia's retail mix began to decline, and then Hyundai (Kia's cousin) followed. Generally both Kia and Hyundai's retail mixes have varied quite a bit, with Kia's results dropping to 58% in 3Q 2009, the low point for any mainstream brand up until that time. Nissan's retail business has also been inconsistent, plummeting to just 69% at the start of 2009 and then quickly ascending to 96% just two quarters later.
Honda, Volkswagen, and Toyota consistently have a retail mix above the industry average, and, with the exception of one quarter, equal to or above 85%. Note, though, that Toyota's results started declining even before their quality issue surfaced in 1Q 2010, and its retail penetration has been below 90% in nine of the past ten quarters.
Honda is in a category all by itself when it comes to fleet. Honda is not really even in the fleet business, with a retail/fleet mix consistently in the 97-99% range. What little fleet business it does do is steady from quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year. Perhaps Honda believes that if it maintains its strong brand image, it does not need to expose retail customers to its products through daily rentals. And its car-heavy lineup does not lend itself to the commercial fleet business as do the lineups of most of its competitors.
Posted by Tom Libby, PolkInsight Advisor, Polk (06.03.2010)
Note that the third quarter spike in 2009 was below that seen in other years, reflecting the fact that the industry collapsed at this time and the need to move production to fleet was exceptionally high. Also, during this past fall, the retail mix (87%) surpassed that of any of the past five years, suggesting the OEMs' stated plans to more closely match production to retail demand has been put into practice.
In both 2005 and 2006, the three mainstream domestic brands were the only ones consistently below the industry average for retail mix. However, as 2006 progressed, Kia's retail mix began to decline, and then Hyundai (Kia's cousin) followed. Generally both Kia and Hyundai's retail mixes have varied quite a bit, with Kia's results dropping to 58% in 3Q 2009, the low point for any mainstream brand up until that time. Nissan's retail business has also been inconsistent, plummeting to just 69% at the start of 2009 and then quickly ascending to 96% just two quarters later.
Honda, Volkswagen, and Toyota consistently have a retail mix above the industry average, and, with the exception of one quarter, equal to or above 85%. Note, though, that Toyota's results started declining even before their quality issue surfaced in 1Q 2010, and its retail penetration has been below 90% in nine of the past ten quarters.
Honda is in a category all by itself when it comes to fleet. Honda is not really even in the fleet business, with a retail/fleet mix consistently in the 97-99% range. What little fleet business it does do is steady from quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year. Perhaps Honda believes that if it maintains its strong brand image, it does not need to expose retail customers to its products through daily rentals. And its car-heavy lineup does not lend itself to the commercial fleet business as do the lineups of most of its competitors.
Posted by Tom Libby, PolkInsight Advisor, Polk (06.03.2010)
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