Consumer Research

I'll spare you the details as you can see more in our latest analysis on Toyota's recall challenges from earlier this year. But if I asked you to simply vote whether the U.S. recalls significantly hurt Toyota's customer loyalty, what would you say? I'll suggest you think twice about your answer. 

Overall, Toyota seems to have weathered the storm due to a long-standing and strong product reputation. This, coupled with the way they managed individual service visits when customers came in to have the acceleration problem fixed, appears to have saved some of their customer retention concerns. All of this despite the media spotlight thrown onto them in early 2010.



There is one telling fact worth noting: a higher level of first-time Toyota buyers shied away from the brand between Q3 2009 and Q1 2010 (a period of heavy international attention on this company). This tells you that newcomers to Toyota decided to delay their purchase of this brand more so than before. However, the consumer research on this one tells us their existing customer base bounced back nicely.

While part of their "owner bridge" may have had a few chunks of cement knocked out of it from the wide-spread recalls, Toyota appears to have built one tough bridge overall. Good for now.

Posted by Lonnie Miller, Vice President, Marketing & Industry Analysis, Polk (07.13.2010)

• The Near Term Future in the Auto Space (Thilo Koslowski, Gartner)
• Integration of CRM Data and Transactional Information (Chris Cawston, SCI)
• Hyundai Motor America Positioning and Growth (David Zuchowski, Hyundai)
• Localized, Data Driven Marketing (Lucette Mercer, Comcast)
• The Evolution of Lead Scoring (Yours truly!, Polk)

I did a brief interview for a public radio program last week and they asked me about people and their ownership patterns of cars and trucks. Specifically, they wanted to know if people were hanging onto their wheels longer and why. Short answer: "Yes."

Americans Continue to Hold Onto Vehicles Longer

 

The trend we've seen over the last 8 years is pretty stark. As new and used vehicle sales in the U.S. have taken a hit in recent years, the chances that we'll hold onto our vehicle for longer periods of time has definitely risen. In late 2001, the average number of months we Americans held onto a new car or truck was 47.5 months. As of September 2009, it was over 60 months. Same pattern, but at different levels, apply for used vehicles, too. Why? How?

1. The economy helped this, but it's not the only reason. I won't elaborate on the old news of what a recession does to individual spending in the auto market. But that's not the only contributor motivating you and I to hold onto our vehicles longer.
2. Financing. Leasing options were more difficult to come by in 2009, particularly as Chrysler Finance and GMAC withdrew from this type of activity. That hurts the "churn" of someone being able to move from a temporary owned vehicle into another one. Plus, there are more deals out there where you can finance for longer term lengths. You've heard of 72 month car loans? They're growing. That'll add to the average ownership length. I found an article from LendingTree dated 2007 citing the beginning of this pattern.
3. Warranties and extended warranties. Automakers are covering their powertrains for longer periods of time and bumper to bumper warranties are also growing. Go talk to a dealer and they'll be happy to sell you an extended warranty as well. Add another factor to my motivation to hang on to 'ol Betsy.
4. Vehicle durability is rising. While perceived durability and reliability may be an issue for some brands, consumer research shows that more and more brands are on par with one another regarding their overall product quality ratings. That is a systematic factor allowing you and I to deal with the same set of wheels for a longer period of time.

The trend bodes well for the automotive aftermarket. (Repair business is good - have you checked out AutoZone's stock lately?) It does suppress the annual sales rate for new sales, but if you are a franchised dealer, can you think of a better reason to have for building a customer retention game plan for your service business? I can't.

Posted by Lonnie Miller, Vice President, Marketing & Industry Analysis, Polk

Last week we recognized winners of Polk's annual Automotive Loyalty Awards. One category that gets a lot of attention by our customers is the overall "Make Loyalty" category which basically recognizes superior customer loyalty to an OEM's brand. Since many of the automakers have multiple divisions (i.e., makes or brands), they like to see how consumers react to these separate entities due to the unique position they try to create in the marketplace. This year, Honda won for the U.S. market. But by how much? And how many more repeat sales would have been needed by other brands to beat this year's winner? The point of these questions is an estimation process can be used by automotive marketing managers to figure out what the sales mix needs to be in order to help them predict how they'll help their companies reach their overall sales targets.

How Close Was Each Brand to Beating Honda's Make Loyalty Rate in 2009?

For the 2009 model year, the average make loyalty rate was 44.53%. Honda's make loyalty rate was 54.86%. Toyota missed beating this rate by 0.15 percentage points and Ford missed it by 0.74 percentage points. If I look at the brands, including Honda, that had an above average industry make loyalty rate, there are a total of 10 of them.

But here's what's intriguing to me: is there an "efficiency thing" going on for some brands? Meaning, what dynamic allows a relatively few more sales from past customers to make some brands "win" while other brands need far more sales from past customers to get the same outcome?

Take Subaru, for instance. They missed beating Honda by 6.03 percentage points. But they only needed another 3,914 sales from past customers to exceed Honda's make loyalty of 54.86%. Now if you're Subaru and you only sell just north of 200,000 units in the U.S., yielding another 3,900 units isn't an easy task. But it's worth noting what sales volume deficits exist in order to possibly reach a loyalty target. Now a brand like Chevrolet needed 27,781 additional past customer sales to make them win, yet Chevrolet's overall gap (5.10 percentage points) from beating Honda was smaller than Subaru's (6.03 percentage points). Cross-town rival, Toyota, missed getting the top spot by 849 sales from past customers. In these examples, we have two large volume OEMs and one relatively small volume OEM. So it's not always a size issue that creates the disparities I'm highlighting.

The point is that when companies set targets for sales, much of this will come from past customers. And if there are specific loyalty targets established, managers can conduct a sensitivity analysis to estimate "what's needed" to hit the number. Awards are something to be proud of, but more importantly, hitting sales targets that are built on a bit of science with the use of consumer research and knowing industry trends can make hitting targets a more plausible effort. Here's to 2010... may the best, and most efficient, brand win.

Posted by Lonnie Miller, Director, Industry Analysis, Polk (01.18.2010)

The other day, I came across this news article:

First thing that came to my mind after reading the article was whether we were researching this feature in our price and specification database or not. You see we collect over 800 data points like this regarding vehicles globally. And it is my job as the product strategist to make sure we collect the right specifications data. The definition of "right" is that the researched data is useful for the consumer or the vehicle product/pricing analyst. Furthermore, I also need to make sure the specifications we collect are not just for this year or next, but will still be valuable in five years.

That brings me to my point about the "slowdown feature" mentioned in the article: all these nice little features that are currently being monopolized by telematics systems, will be replaced by applications in smart phones. If you look at a telematics system, it is a combination of GPS, cell phone, and the ability to communicate with the vehicle computer. The first two are readily available on smart phones today. The only missing piece is a data-port where an attached smart phone can connect to the vehicle computer. When an iPhone can link to a car's computer, there will be plenty of application developers out there who will be happy to design and develop interesting applications. They will do it better, faster and cheaper.

This obviously will have huge consequences for OnStar et al. But it will also represent some challenges for our price and specification database: it is one thing to collect vehicles specifications when they are hardware-based (e.g. Xenon lights = Available ), but it is another thing when you deal with software-based features of a vehicle. Since software downloads will be different for each vehicle owner, all we can really report will be whether "access to vehicle computer" is available or not.

Anyway, that is my job; your job is to decide which applications to buy on iTunes for $0.99. For fellow Michiganders, I recommend the "remote iSeatWarmer" and "Remote AC starter".

Posted by Cenk Hepaktan, Global Product Strategist, Polk (11.03.2009)

Recently, the importance of customer loyalty in automotive marketing has skyrocketed due to the increased proportion of loyalty sales among total industry sales. Beyond measuring customer loyalty, OEMs and dealers need to understand what drives consumers' decisions to repurchase the same brand. Here at Polk, we attempted to uncover some of the drivers of repurchase intentions through a consumer research study we carried out this past spring.

In this study, we asked consumers who bought a new vehicle during the past three years what the likelihood is that they will repurchase a vehicle of the same brand next time they return to market, based on their ownership experience. We also asked them how satisfied they were with a series of factors pertaining to their purchase and ownership experience that we considered as potential influencers behind their repurchase decision.

These influencing factors were grouped into three major categories:

1. Product (brand affinity, product quality, performance, safety, fuel economy, workmanship, drive quality)
2. Customer relations (sales process, customer communications)
3. Monetary (purchase price, sales incentives, financing, cost of ownership)

Our analytical model revealed that product attributes are the most important drivers. Sales process and customer communications also emerged as highly influential, which reinforces the notion that a positive experience during the sales process has the potential to drive loyalty and also highlights the need for constant communication with customers.

Within the product category, fuel economy is a significant attribute that drives repurchase intention, though it is also directly related to the cost of ownership. Purchase price is perhaps less influential than we expected, although there are other monetary aspects that are important such as incentives, cost of ownership and indirectly, fuel economy. A diagram of the derived importance of repurchase drivers is shown below. More detailed study findings are forthcoming in a paper to be published shortly. Stay tuned.

Posted by Dan Zetu, Analytic Consultant, Polk (10.06.09)

Why don't small diesel cars get bought or sold in the U.S.? The last time you were in Europe up to 40% of the cars driving next to you were diesels. They were getting up to 60 MPG and didn’t have complex recharging systems or heavy batteries. Could you tell? They weren’t smoking, they didn’t sound like an F350, they were probably going to last longer than the petrol version next to them and they are great mid and small sized cars. This industry trend seems almost absent in the U.S. consumer marketplace.

If you could buy the new Taurus as a Turbo Diesel and get 40 MPG, would you? If you could buy the same Saab, Audi or BMW that you buy here in the U.S. today and get double the mileage with none of the hybrid costs or future headaches of replacing batteries – would you? I know I would.

If you wouldn't buy one, why not? Most of these vehicles have been engineered to meet U.S. vehicle safety and crash standards. The diesel that you can buy here in the U.S. is now clean enough to put in their highly tuned engines without destroying them. What is stopping the OEMs from bringing them over by the boatload? VW is making a start – their TDIs appear to be selling well but this is a small manufacturer with few models. Is it really public opinion of diesels that is driving manufacturer behavior? Has there been no consumer research to gauge loyalty for this forgotten automotive engine segment? Or are the manufacturers overstating consumer concern and missing a huge opportunity to improve U.S. fuel consumption on new vehicles... and limiting consumer choices? I know that when I buy my next vehicle, it will be a diesel since I commute 86 miles to work each day.

Posted by Chris Royle, Director, Global Product Strategy, Polk (09.15.09)

In a recent Polk View on automotive industry challenges, we looked at the impact of Chrysler's and GM's bankruptcies, brand eliminations and dealership closings on consumer attitudes and likely buying behavior. Our ongoing consumer research program painted a picture that wasn’t particularly rosy just a few months back: over two-fifths (43%) of surveyed consumers were likely to defect if their local GM or Chrysler dealer closed; one-third (35%) would be less likely to purchase a brand being discontinued and a similar proportion (34%) said an auto company bankruptcy would make them less likely to buy.

Consumer Attitudes - Impact on Purchase Consideration
Level of Agreement: I am less likely to buy because of...

Fortunately, things are starting to look a little brighter for the U.S. auto industry, with positive signs emerging in a relatively short time. GM's and Chrysler's rapid emergence from bankruptcy and the government's highly successful Cash for Clunkers program have been big factors contributing to the improvement.

While we're clearly not out of the woods yet, there are some signs of an upturn. Chrysler recently announced it's re-signing 140 dealers of the almost 800 closed under bankruptcy protection. As reported in Automotive News, dramatic cost cutting and production cuts, along with Cash for Clunkers sales, have left auto inventories at their lowest levels since 1992 and now automakers are scrambling to build more of their popular models. GM just announced that it's increasing production and calling back laid-off workers at several plants to fill the void. Retailers also report a late model used car sales boom from shoppers who didn't qualify for Cash for Clunkers and the increased traffic is driving service and maintenance business, which are both quite profitable.

Things seem to be boding well for Ford, which gained market share due to the other Detroit manufacturers' duress. Also, Toyota has trimmed its huge losses from last quarter. Economic indicators add to the optimism: the stock market's up, GDP is shrinking less than previously, unemployment is slowing, the housing market may have hit bottom and consumer confidence is showing signs of renewed life.

Let's keep our fingers crossed that the economy, a leaner and meaner GM, and Fiat’s merger with Chrysler all mean that brighter days are ahead for a smaller but "better" auto industry. What do you think? Are things improving for the U.S. auto industry?

Posted by Bruce Giffin, Corporate Market Research Manager, Polk (08.24.2009)

• Consumer polling conducted by Polk before the program began was an early indication of its likely success, with almost two-thirds (64%) of respondents expressing interest in the program. In addition to the savings, improved fuel economy and a desire to help the environment were reasons consumers gave for interest in the program.
• The huge success of similar "scrappage" programs in Europe that the U.S. Cash for Clunkers was modeled after was another early indication this program was going to be big.
• There was so much interest in the program that the government’s CARS website for dealers to register for certification in the program crashed due to the overwhelming volume when automobile dealers across the country began enrolling on June 24th.
• High levels of local, regional and national automotive advertising signaled the industry was ramping up and getting ready for the program well in advance.

With the rash of cost-cutting in the face of current automotive industry challenges, I feel like something should be said on behalf of digital investment. It’s no secret that the number of dealerships will drop dramatically this year and beyond. I think it's obvious that the economy has had a fairly dramatic effect on consumers, too.  But it’s more than just declining sales. The economy is also impacting how consumers are shopping for their next new car or truck.

If consumers are replacing vehicles at a slower rate, this means they are taking more time than ever to research their next purchase. Odds are they are staying away from the actual point of sale to avoid the perceived risk of being trapped by dealers desperate to get a sale. Instead, consumers are doing vehicle research via the Internet from the comfort of their homes.

With consumers spending more time online gathering information, digital marketing has become significantly more important. Yet I get the sense that some manufacturers and dealer groups are considering reductions in their online investment (e.g., less content and fewer features). 

Closing even one brick and mortar store is a difficult decision. The decision to cut digital investment is not one that should be taken lightly, either. In this difficult time, carmakers and retailers should make every effort to maintain or even increase their investment in their customers' online experience. Otherwise, they risk losing sales to dealers who realize the power and potential of digital marketing.

The eagerly awaited Cash for Clunkers program is one of the hot topics du jour in the automotive industry. Given the current automotive industry challenges, any additional incentive program could be an instrument in enabling the recovery of auto sales. Although experts in general are skeptical of the real impact on sales trends, many in the industry are wondering how many households qualify for this new program (although the budget cap on the program will make it impossible for everyone who qualifies to participate).

Here at Polk we created a model identifying the households likely to own a vehicle that qualifies for the Cash for Clunkers program. At the same time, independently of the Cash for Clunkers model, we segmented the entire US market into groups based on the type and number of vehicles they own, age and market value of the vehicles, income and ability to pay for a new vehicle (with or without extra incentives). Based on this segmentation and the Cash for Clunkers model, we came up with a rough estimate of the program's market potential: 4 million.

Let me explain how we arrived at that number.

Roughly 11 million households are highly likely to own clunkers. However, not all of these will be able to afford a new vehicle, will be interested in taking advantage of the program or will even be aware of it. Of the 11 million clunker owners, we identified a group (about 6.5 million), that have high income and can easily afford a new car. Most likely, these people keep the clunker as an extra vehicle in their garage. It is hard to tell without further research how many of these households will actually be interested in getting another new vehicle, but a fair estimate is about 3.5 million.

Another segment of 2.5 million clunker owners have relatively low incomes and will probably be challenged in securing funding for acquiring a new vehicle, even though they may actually need one. We estimate conservatively that about 500,000 consumers from this group will actually be able to acquire a new vehicle via the program.

Whether or not the Cash for Clunkers program results in the additional 4 million sales we estimate will depend on a series of factors that are difficult to control. First, the $1 billion budget cap allocated for the program limits severely the number of customers able to take advantage of the program. Even if the budget were unlimited, some households would want to purchase new vehicles that wouldn't qualify due to poor gas mileage. Other consumers will simply not want to incur payments for an extra new vehicle, even if they can afford it, and yet others may not even be aware of the program. Even with those caveats, we believe that the potential of the Cash for Clunkers program is significant.

Is it wrong for me to be excited about the new Ford Taurus? Maybe I’m just getting old, but the Taurus always represented what my father and his friends drove . . . a boring car for the practical, budget-minded adult.

A combination of pent-up demand, GM and Chrysler bankruptcies, and a ‘buy American’ sentiment could make the Taurus’s July 2009 release date perfect. Automotive consumer research indicates that the public’s perception of Ford is improving due to Ford’s strong quality scores, its avoidance of government bailout funds, and the release of more exciting vehicles. If we look at the midsize sedan segment, Taurus’s major competitors include the Toyota Avalon and Chevrolet Impala . . . the buzz seems to indicate that the 2010 Taurus competes exceptionally well from a price, content and quality perspective with these makes. At the high end, the SHO could steal share from entry-level luxury buyers that traditionally consider brands such as Cadillac, Mercedes and BMW. My guess is that the Taurus is going to be a major hit.

Now the tough question . . . can I really see myself driving the same boring car dad used to drive?  I'll have to ask my kids.

Posted by John McBride, Director of Sales and Client Services, Polk (07.10.2009)

I'm intrigued by what really goes through an owner's mind when they find out they have a car or truck that's discontinued.  I'm sure a lot people don't care or don't really realize a particular model is retired after a while.  It's expected, right?  But for some, a vehicle defines who they are.  And it just might irk these customers to know they bought a vehicle the brand chose to pull from the product line-up...or worse yet, they bought a vehicle from a brand that's simply going away. So when, for example, Pontiac announced they're "going adios," what do those poor Solstice convertible owners think?

There's a lot written about customer loyalty, lost customers, conquesting, etc.  But right now, when sales are down and customers are nervous about the economy, this is important stuff.  It's really important to keep good customers interested in your brand.