Commercial Vehicle Market

If you're like me, you're probably wondering why Ford has come out with a new product in the Medium Duty Commercial Vehicle Market segment this fiscal year, when industry sales are expected to be weaker than original forecasts. If you did wonder, then you haven't seen the Ford Transit Connect. An unabashed, small (don't dare call it mini) van that promises to be the vehicle version of a multi-tasking child that is watching television, playing a computer game, and text messaging their friends all at the same time.

The six-foot six-inch height is surprising and creates a roomy, if not downright capacious space for whatever application the owner can imagine. Plus, Edmunds lists the vehicle with a 23 mpg fuel rating and 135 cu. ft. of cargo space all at a price tag of $20.8K - welcome specs for the small business owner looking to save, in all areas of their business, without sacrificing quality. If you need power, though, then this vehicle may not be for you. The 4 cylinder engine is only putting out 128 lbs. ft. of torque at 4750 rpm. The horsepower story isn't much better with 136 hp at 6300 rpm.

I still think this vehicle has the opportunity to be a game-changing crossover in the commercial and consumer vehicle markets alike. The large space gives contractors, small business owners and shuttle services the opportunity to use a smaller, more fuel efficient vehicle with enough room to handle all of their needs. For the consumer, the Transit Connect has an optional three-across bench style second row seat. This could mean a multitude of uses for drivers with wheelchairs, families with an active lifestyle, small bands and folks who simply dig the quirkiness of the vehicle.

Ford has also reached out to the earth friendly crowd - they will be happy to know that Consumer Reports mentioned Ford's plans to come out with a battery-electric hybrid version this year. It seems as though the hits just keep on coming for Ford as they add to the ever-popular Mustang muscle car and F-Series trucks with the Connect, redesigned Fusion and Taurus. Suddenly Ford's vehicle lineup is looking quite strong and attractive. They may even prompt me to take the, "Have you driven a Ford lately" challenge to heart, and actually drive one instead of simply answering, "No."

I am excited to start seeing these vehicles on the road here in the U.S. instead of pictures from Europe but I'm even more excited to see what effect the vehicle will have on the industry trend to produce larger - more powerful and roomy - but less efficient vehicles. What effect do you think the new Ford Transit Connect will have on the market?

Posted by Therran Oliphant, Account Representative, Commercial Vehicle Truck Group, Polk (01.05.2010)

Everywhere you look, you'll find blogs and articles buzzing about the topic of Social Media. Meanwhile the topic of "email" is getting pushed into the digital marketing archives. Yet, many of my customers keep asking me about emails. "What do you see as some of the best practices for email marketing?" "Is email better than social media for direct marketing?" "Why are so many of my emails not going through to the intended recipient?" It sounds to me that email isn't anywhere near dead. I think savvy business professionals realize that email is still great for parts and service reminders, promoting dialogue with loyal customers and targeting special offers. So, to all of you who asked, I offer the following:

Your email is always with you
Smartphone usage has skyrocketed - especially for executives and decision-makers. Do that receiver a favor and send emails that are viewable, with links that go to Smartphone friendly websites, so that your messages have more of an opportunity of being read. Therefore, graphically rich emails with links to content rich sites may not be the best option for increasing read rates.

Social media and email are integrated
Email is one of the best ways to share your social network profiles via signature tagging. Mashable gives us a guide to the five best tools to use for aggregating networks and offering solutions to "unclutter" your signature line with all of those networks. Additionally, using social media is one of the best ways to share emails. "Share - to - social" can increase email reach by more than 24%, as noted in Media Post - so don't see them as separate, but linked technologies that can help integrate your message through multiple platforms.

Email volume is rising
The Email Stat Center displays some amazing usage statistics that blew my mind. The one that surprised me the most was that of the 70% of people that have multiple email accounts, they will receive nearly 600 emails per week! Wow! This indicates a need to be able to get through the clutter. Plus, those users are probably extremely sophisticated. Therefore, we must be cognizant of subject lines, copy, and offers so that our emails are opened. The caveat to this positive centers around managing that volume properly. Many email professionals believe that overly frequent messaging can get you designated as a spammer. Before beginning a campaign, look into the best practices of your industry and email marketing to ensure you're viewed as the quality organization you want to portray.

My personal recommendation to accomplish the former are:

• Never include the name of the person in the subject line. You will be labeled a spammer if you do this.
• Get to the point. If I'm reading 600 emails a week, I don't have the time to sift through an ambiguous communication to get to the offer.
• Give the receiver a chance to dialogue with your organization. One of the most important lessons of social media is that people want to dialogue and be a part of a larger conversation.
• Targeting for the commercial vehicle market is paramount. After you develop your target market, get out there and communicate! Happy emailing.

Posted by Therran Oliphant, Account Representative, Commercial Vehicle Truck Group, Polk (11.18.2009)

Everyone in the Commercial Vehicle Market is well aware of the 2010 emissions regulations that will take effect January 1, 2010. Thanks to one brave company we have a battle over which technology will be the best - Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) engines versus Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) engines is as classic a conflict as Road Runner versus Wylie Coyote or Rocky versus Apollo.

Navistar, with it's MaxxForce engines will be the sole maker of EGR in America, and they have waged a full-scale marketing campaign to tout their dominance, claiming "Simplicity vs. Complexity." They are following in the footsteps of MAN and Scania - two European engine manufacturers - that were making SCR engines and have since switched to the EGR solution. Navistar will need to use carbon credits  to make their MaxxForce engines compliant with the emissions standards though.

Every other engine maker (Cummins, DDC, Volvo, MB, Mack, etc.) will offer the SCR solution in 2010, claiming they actually meet the 2010 emissions regulations for Particulate Matter (PM)—0.01 g/bhp-hr, Nitrogen Oxide (NOx)—0.20 g/bhp-hr, and Non-Methane Hydrocarbons (NMHC)—0.14 g/bhp-hr. They also note that the urea solution will be seamless to maintain.

There is certainly a tough decision to be made between the two. One offers simplicity, while the other offers the most complete solution to the current emission standards. For your fleet going forward,  which solution (EGR or SCR) do you think you'll go with? If so, what makes you prefer one solution over the other?

Posted by Therran Oliphant, Account Representative, Commercial Vehicle Truck Group, Polk (10.13.2009)

Media Rates Comparison Chart (Cost Per Thousand)

Source: Truck Ads LLC®

Measurement is made easy with technology, as GPS units measure Gross Ratings Points (GRPs) based on the vehicles' location. Thus, the advertiser can keep real-time statistics about the number of people viewing their ads, and match that up to sales and product inquiry numbers to evaluate campaign effectiveness. Advertisers can further the campaign effectiveness by researching registrations of vehicles in the Designated Market Areas (DMA) that contain vehicle concentrations most likely owned by their demographic targets.

Under the stress test of necessary components for quality advertising, advertising on Commercial Vehicle Trailers hits the mark at high speed.

Posted by Therran Oliphant, Account Representative, Commercial Vehicle Truck Group, Polk (09.16.2009)

Typically, I'm pretty good at predicting trends in the commercial vehicle market. This particular occasion, though, I was stumped with a capital "S." I thought that with the glut of engine and emissions regulation changes, there would be a noticeable increase in the sales trend for vehicles with medium-sized engines putting out less Horsepower, Particulate Matter (PM) and Nitrogen Oxide (NOx). The smallest engines are too uneconomical for heavy duty trucks, and larger engines are too heavy and full of pollutants - so naturally the engines in the 10 liter to 13 liter groove would be growing in acceptance, right!? Right? Well, you know what go-eth before the fall.

To prove my point (rather than find the facts), I crunched some numbers. Turns out, medium-sized engines have been dropping in popularity with surprising regularity. In fact, over the past five years, engines with a liter size between 10.8-13 have gone from 41% of the engine population to under 30% of the engine population in class 8 trucks.

The above means that 14 liter engines and larger, combined with all small engines under 10.8 liters, have risen from 59% of the total population to just over 70% in the past five years. I have surmised transportation companies, and the commercial vehicle industry in general, are going through a shift in business practices. Some companies are committing to more local transit, while others have stuck to their long-haul roots. Thus, smaller engines have been mated to local transit trucks, and the larger engines with more power and lasting ability have been placed in the long-haul carriers - at least this is my assumption. I personally don't care what the size of the engine is on the truck as long as the load is on the road, but I am interested in sales trends so I would love to know if the engine size in your truck is consistent with my findings - and if so why?

Posted by Therran Oliphant, Account Representative, Commercial Vehicle Group, Polk (08.28.2009)

Everywhere I turn, I'm seeing businesses getting into the Social Media "Matrix." The Commercial Vehicle Market as a business-to-business (B2B) industry has its own set of challenges when it comes to social media. Let's face it, social media is scary because it merges relationship building with technology, and explaining how it works and why it is necessary, to C-Level executives can be tricky.

Today, let's examine four ways that a Commercial Vehicle Organization can create social impact, without investing too much cash or time.

1. Define Objectives
Step one does not have to be overly complicated. The objectives can be as simple as, "We want to generate 20 new impressions (connections) per week via social tools." As with any initiative, the need to measure success and define strategy is paramount, so set realistic, measurable and time-specific goals.

2. Start a blog!
Leverage multiple knowledge centers within the organization to keep updated content flowing through this space. The benefits you can realize are: targeting of long tail search terms back to your content; being seen as a thought leader in the industry; potential dialogue with your customers; and gaining backlink relevance to your website.

3. Turn Your Website Social
Find your second most popular webpage, and use some ingenuity to make that page a social destination. For dealers, that page may be the Parts and Service or About Us page. Corporate entities will usually find that page to be the About Us page, or the Product Update pages. You can find your most popular pages via Google Analytics.

Make the About Us page social by adding links to LinkedIn profiles and adding videos and pictures. The added value benefit with these solutions are that they're great Search Engine Optimization (SEO) tools because search engine "spiders" love video, web links, and relevant text.

I would also suggest adding "Subscribe" and "Share" buttons to your frequently updated content. This can be done by adding a follow widget to your News & White Papers pages and/or your blog. Sites like Add to Any have great widgets that can be easily installed to your site.

4. Utilize Trade Shows
Trade shows are often a necessary part of the B2B company's marketing budget, and rightfully so. Large numbers of target customers can generate good leads; companies make big announcements at trade shows; and relationships can be developed over after-show dinner and cocktails.

One tactic is to live-blog or tweet (using Twitter) from the next show. Not every company is able to attend, and you can be their eyes and ears.

Facebook Fan Pages even have practical applications. Invite some of your contacts to a cocktail reception or demonstration at your booth by emailing them through your fan page list.

The most important thing to remember is to stay social and true to your corporate personality. B2B interactions, while professional, can be less formal. Social media represents an opportunity to form relationships and define the personality of your organization.

Posted by Therran Oliphant, Account Representative, Commercial Vehicle Group, Polk (08.21.2009)

A few days ago in my last blog post, I started a game of Commercial Vehicle Market Super Mario Brothers – an analysis of near-term sales trends within the context of Super Mario. I looked at the number of buyers in the market (less than before,) and the number of vehicles buyers are purchasing (consistent with past trends). Now, my game continues...and I’m down to my final "man."

I decide to look at commercial vehicle pricing for 2010, when I run across an article out of HDMA telling me that surcharges will be passed along to the customer from the OEMs because it is more expensive to produce the Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) and Exhaustive Gas Recirculation (EGR) engines that are compliant with the 2010 government regulations. What!? Now is certainly not the time to raise prices - and although I'm not clutching my chest and claiming that this is the "big one" like Fred Sanford - I am actually getting worried. At this point, I feel like I've carelessly lost another Super Mario and it is taking all of my energy to keep from hitting my giggling and pointing brother.

Alright, this is my last Mario and I'm going to make it count. Except, my brother walks by and punches me in the shoulder for the dirty look I gave him. This of course happens right as I start Mario out on the course. The problem that has derailed this train of positivity? Overcapacity. The numbers suggest that there are 300,000 idle vehicles currently owned but not in use, or with lapsed registrations. Now I could complain but I know the cheat code, which gives me one extra man to go on with. My other profit centers can - and will continue to - trend upward.

Focusing resources toward aging and overused fleets can effectively shield Class 8 Truck dealers from a new truck sales slump. While the information may be unpleasant, there is some speculation that buying will resume to normal to increased levels in the next 12 months. Although the typical indicators may not be the key to profitability, I can always redefine success. While sales in 2009 may not spike like they did in 2006 for the emissions changes, the sales trends uncovered lead to a clear conclusion. The best thing to remember is the multiple profit center philosophy...when one is under-performing, like New Truck Sales, there is opportunity to make some profit in the others. So look forward to the Parts and Service, Finance, and Used Truck Departments' strength or, risk getting beaten by the game and laughed at by your brother.

Posted by Therran Oliphant, Account Representative, Commercial Vehicle Group, Polk (08.14.2009)

Impending emissions standards increases usually signal the flood of pre-orders for trucks. Yet, it is August and there still is no indication that there will be any pull-ahead sales. This got me to thinking...can the pull-ahead sales trends be predicted by the number of fleet purchases? More importantly, will 2009 resemble 2006 when new emissions standards slated to go into effect the next year help "pull" an increase of New Truck Sales?

The assumption is that there are fewer buyers in the market, so we need to find the actual number of potential purchasers because they are an important indicator of the commercial vehicle market's volume potential. Therefore, the first variable to measure - in my quest to calculate the industry's near-term fate - is an estimated number of companies that will need to buy based on prior activity. As was assumed, there are far fewer fleets purchasing in 2009 - somewhere to the tune of 25% fewer than at this same point in 2008.

Learning this particular fact made me feel like a young boy playing Super Mario Bros. 3 when a turtle would bite him and Mario lost a special power or shrunk to "Mini Mario" under the weight of the player's ineptitude. Instead, the economy is the player and the market conditions are the snapping turtles nipping at young Mario's heels (who of course is also known as industry variables). Usually, in those days, as the game player (or class 8 truck dealer in this case) I would tell myself that this is merely a setback; I will make it up by grabbing some extra stars to get an additional "man."

Undaunted, I figure that there may be some light at the end of the tunnel, so I go hunting for commercial vehicle market stars. I decide that I can estimate the average number of purchases by isolating all of the New Vehicle registrations each company has made during the year. I'm hoping that a lack of activity in the beginning of the year will indicate that everyone is playing the waiting game for the 4th quarter. When dissected by industry, fleet purchase averages seem to line up with other years - all years except 2006 when pull-ahead sales for new emissions standards stimulated the industry.

In other words, those who are purchasing are buying the same average number of vehicles per purchase as in past years. This statistic lets me know that the people that are buying have not treated this current emission reduction like the last fleet update period - buying light early to purchase heavy at the end of the year. Now, my first Mario has been killed and I'm getting a little upset. This is okay, because sometimes a little anger only makes you more focused to play the second man, so I know I can handle this.

Join me for Part 2 of this blog post when I continue my game of Super Mario and my look at near-term sales and industry trends in the commercial vehicle market.

Posted by Therran Oliphant, Account Representative, Commercial Vehicle Group, Polk (08.12.2009)

I can almost see the headlines on CNBC or Fox Business noting that occult store stock has surged, due to the preponderant purchase of soothsayer assistance items. Magic 8 balls will reach the spire of their economic demand since being paired with lava lamps, and businesses will start hiring mystics to work with their economists and business analysts. Maybe that is more than a little far-fetched, but to assure ourselves we never reach the point of crystal ball and lucky rabbit's foot dependence, the commercial vehicle industry must go through some realistic and sound self-assessment. More than ever, my customers are looking toward forecasting tools in the hopes of gleaning enough  knowledge about their market and the business climate to make informed decisions that will mitigate the effects of the slumping economy on their businesses.

While the industry is extraordinarily complex and there are no one-size-fits-all solutions, there are some major points of emphasis that may act as a general indicator, applicable to most businesses looking for some direction. The three following issues can greatly impact the decision-making process of just about any business in the commercial vehicle market.

First, diesel engine emissions standards are becoming increasingly tough. This is especially true in the heavy duty segment, and it has already shown up in new vehicle registration volumes over the past 2-1/2 years. Meanwhile, at the other end of the spectrum, class 3-5 vehicles have increased their market share 3% - to 41.6% of the total truck market - in the same time frame. Look for this industry trend to continue as the projected Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of Class 8 vehicles looks very weak until 2013. 2009 new vehicle registration volumes will fall again, to 380,600 vehicles. This number is less than half of the new vehicle registrations of 2006. VIO is still expected to climb, which suggests there will also be much less scrappage than in years past. On the positive side, the combination of those two metrics should mean an increase in used vehicle volumes and parts and service activity. Third, we can safely say that the industry will start to recover by Q1 2010, with the overall business climate of the country and the world. Commercial vehicle registrations will rebound to above 2008 levels as early as next year. Survival is the key to reaping the benefits of the upcoming growth markets, but we know bear-like hibernation is not an option until then. 

How do you plan to maximize profit before the impending demand spurs need?
Polk Solutions Consultant Dave Goebel speaks about these issues in much greater depth in this Polk View, "The Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market." 

In a stormy business climate, navigating the troubled waters effectively can mean the difference between capsizing or making it safely back to harbor. Question is, are you using a compass or a talisman to get there?

Posted by Therran Oliphant, Account Representative, Commercial Vehicle Group, Polk (07.06.2009)