Blog Posts by Tom Libby

Hidden behind the headlines about May's modest new vehicle sales results is the fact that Toyota Motor Sales had an extraordinary month. With replenished inventories of core models, both the Toyota and Lexus makes had "break-out" months. Together the two brands captured 15.2% of the U.S. market in May, up five percentage points from May 2011. To put that in perspective, Toyota's gain in May was equal to the entire U.S. volume of the Hyundai make in the same month. Toyota dealers delivered...

Non-luxury fullsize cars, once the mainstay of the U.S. car business, are losing their luster in the eyes of the U.S. consumer. This category’s share of the U.S. market has dropped by more than half over the last five years, and through the first three months of this year, it accounts for just 2.3% of all new vehicles sold. The number of fullsize models in dealer showrooms has declined dramatically as well, falling from 15 just five years ago to only seven now. The only large non-luxury cars...

GM's consolidation to four brands and Ford's discontinuation of Mercury have helped to create the current environment in which there is an exceptionally high number of "orphan owners" on the road. "Orphan owners" are driving cars or light trucks from a make that no longer markets new vehicles in the U.S. As of last October, the latest date for which Polk has Vehicles In Operation (VIO) data, there were 18,529,769 million "orphan" cars and light trucks on the road from 16 makes. Five metro...

If the new 2013 Lincoln MKZ does as well after its launch as it has beforehand, it will be a huge success. At both the North American International Auto Show in Detroit in January (concept vehicle) and the New York International Auto Show just a couple of weeks ago (final production version), the media raved about the car. Two compliments were mentioned repeatedly: the car's styling is modern, clean and elegant, and there is virtually no similarity visually between the MKZ and its sister...Read...

Sales of hybrid and electric vehicles remain modest. And, the creation of the infrastructure to support the use of these vehicles is proceeding in fits and starts. In January, hybrid registrations accounted for just 2.29% of all new vehicle registrations in the U.S., down from 2.51% a year ago. Looking at electric vehicle registrations, the good news is that the January total climbed eight-fold versus January 2011. The bad news is that the 2012 total was just .8% of the industry. Nissan Leaf... R...

An analysis of new vehicle buyers shows that their average age was 51 years old in 2011, three years older than buyers in 2007. In 2011, 40% of all buyers were aged 55 years or older, up from about 30% just four years earlier. And, in keeping with much commentary about today’s youth, in 2011, only 11% of all new vehicle buyers were aged 34 years or younger, down from almost 16% four years earlier. Perhaps today’s young people indeed do have less interest in cars or perhaps they don’t have the...R...

The non-luxury sub-compact car segment, home to such well-known cars as the Ford Fiesta, Honda Fit, Nissan Versa, and Toyota Yaris, is one of the hottest in the industry. Consider the following facts:

1. The segment’s new registrations in January increased 26% versus January 2011, the fifth highest increase among all 29 segments
2. The segment’s share of the industry reached 4.73% in January, up from 4.12% last January and 4.0% in 2010
3. This segment is now the third largest car segment in...

Recently some friends and I were talking about the fact that Mercedes-Benz and BMW are fierce competitors, and I mentioned that Audi was making progress and should also be included in any discussion about leading luxury makes.  One of my friends responded, “I’ve been hearing that for twenty years.” His skepticism and sarcasm took me by surprise. I decided to look at the registration data and see if Audi was in fact getting closer to MB and BMW in this country, or not. Over the past five...

From 2006 through 2009, large vehicles as a percentage of total new vehicle registrations declined 10 percentage points to 20%, though this proportion has stayed constant in the last two years. Going forward, most automotive forecasts predict that large vehicles will retreat even further as gas prices rise and OEMs launch smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles (including hybrids and electric vehicles) to meet the upcoming CAFÉ standards.Looking at the nine non-luxury mainstream makes, all of...

The FIAT 500 has come in for some criticism because dealers delivered only 17,945* units in 2011, far short of the annual goal of 50,000 announced earlier in the year by Chrysler and FIAT Chairman Sergio Marchionne. The 500’s shortfall was exceptionally visible because it occurred amidst successful performances in 2011 by all other Chrysler Corporation makes. And, if one looks at the 500 in the context of the non-luxury subcompact car segment in which it competes, its results – 4% of the...

Polk forecasts that 2012 U.S. light vehicle sales will reach 13.7 million, a 7% increase versus 2011. Other forecasting firms have weighed in with similar predictions, ranging from 13.4 million to 14 million units. What is not included in any new vehicle forecast, from any company, is a forecast of a traumatic event that would profoundly impact the industry. The reason why such an event is not included is because, by definition, such an event cannot be anticipated. But, that is not to say...

Premium new vehicle registrations in the U.S. climbed almost 5% in 2011 to 1.45 million units, driven in part by fierce competition between BMW and Mercedes-Benz for premium sales leadership (won by BMW). But this increase lagged behind the 10% improvement for the overall new vehicle industry, which was led by exceptional gains at Chrysler, Volkswagen and Hyundai.In the premium market, nine of 11 segments gained ground in 2011, with two small-vehicle segments and one upper-end category...Read...

With more than eight months to go in the 2012 Presidential election campaigns, we will probably hear a lot more about red, blue and purple states. Wikipedia defines red states (22) as those that have voted overwhelmingly republican in the last five presidential elections. Blue states (22) generally voted democratic in the same elections, and purple states (7) have also been named swing states because, as the name implies, they could go either way (there are a total of 51 because the District...

The U.S. new car business did well in January. Sales of 913,284 new cars and light trucks were 11% ahead of a year ago. The Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) was 14.2 million units, its highest level since May 2008 (excluding August 2009 when the Cash for Clunkers program artificially inflated sales). The SAAR has been above 13 million units for five months in a row.Trends of the last quarter of 2011 carried over to January. Chrysler, Volkswagen, Hyundai and Kia continued to outpace...

The Luxury Compact Car Segment – with 27% of all luxury registrations during the first 11 months of 2011 - is the largest luxury segment. Therefore, it is no surprise that many of the luxury marques focused on small cars in their presentations to the media at the recent North American International Auto Show (NAIAS) in Detroit.BMW unveiled the redesigned 2012 3-Series which offers understated, evolutionary styling changes; later in the year, a hybrid 3-Series will be available. Cadillac...Read...

The U.S. auto industry is swimming in data. At the recent press conferences held prior to the opening of the North American International Auto Show, speakers from every OEM recited statistic after statistic to bolster the reputation of their brand or company. At the start of each month, the OEMs provide the press and public with a blitz of sales results. These data can be fascinating and they provide industry followers with a quantitative method by which to understand how the industry and its...R...

The U.S. new vehicle industry continued to gain momentum as 2011 came to a close, with December deliveries up almost 9% from December 2010. For the entire year, dealers delivered 12,777,939 new cars and light trucks, up about 10% from 2011. The Polk Forecasting Practice expects the industry recovery to continue in 2012, with U.S. new vehicle deliveries climbing another 7% to 13.7 million units. Further growth in the industry will unfortunately be inhibited by the continued weakness in the...

It seems like there are a million different types of cars and trucks on the road these days. I'm not a mathematician, but if you were to calculate all of the different combinations of vehicles available based on such vehicle characteristics as size, body type, price and powertrain, there are probably a million possibilities. Yet, even with such a wide choice of vehicles from which the consumer can choose, four types of vehicles dominate the marketplace. Midsize cars, compact cars, compact...Read...

Sport utility vehicles, one of the core drivers of the new vehicle industry in the 1990s and seemingly ubiquitous on the American road at that time, are on the verge of making the "Endangered Species" list. There were 59 SUVs on the market as recently as 2006, accounting for 13.9% of all new vehicle registrations, but today there are just 35 sport utilities in dealer showrooms, and their share has plummeted to just 7.7%. This sales trend has occurred at the same time as the rise of crossovers...R...

In the November 9, 2011 edition of The AutoExtremist, a respected blog written by veteran auto marketer Peter M. De Lorenzo, he discusses how Toyota lost its way (in the years leading up to and including 2010) and the lessons other OEMs can learn from Toyota's woes. By the end of the blog, De Lorenzo has mentioned several strategies which OEMs need to pursue to avoid Toyota's troubles. His major recommendations include:

• Building vehicles that "bristle with leading-edge design and exceptional,...

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