This post symbolizes the equivalent of the proverbial 'grasping at straws'. Much like the overall economy, it is still difficult to see any major improvements in the commercial vehicle market. Q1 2010 did realize a 2.4% increase in year-over-year sales in Class 8's, though.
When broken down, I noticed that the higher volume tractor segment carried the bulk of the growth with nearly 2,500 more registrations than Q1 2009. The biggest decline was realized in the Class 8 straight truck market with over 1,000 fewer registrations from last year. The total number of registrations was 25,264 which was a 624 vehicle improvement over last year. If that sales trend continues, then we'll see about a 3,300 vehicle increase at the end of the year. You won't see dancing in the streets but there is little to complain about if that holds up.
The volume winners were, predictably, Freightliner and International but the Paccar folks get honorable mention for their combined Kenworth and Peterbilt numbers.
I do assume that there will be heavy buying just before commerce increases, due to pent-up demand. On average, trucks on the road are older than they have been in a long time and newer equipment will be necessary to handle the jobs of the future. Not to mention, the government is serious about emissions standards which will create a market in itself. Still, I don't think major sales growth is likely until late Q3 into Q4.
What do you think about the time horizon for the commercial truck market to spring back to life? Are there factors that weigh in to your decision? Put your prognostication hats on; I'm interested to know what you think!
Posted by Therran Oliphant, Account Representative, Commercial Vehicle Market, Polk (06.04.2010)
When broken down, I noticed that the higher volume tractor segment carried the bulk of the growth with nearly 2,500 more registrations than Q1 2009. The biggest decline was realized in the Class 8 straight truck market with over 1,000 fewer registrations from last year. The total number of registrations was 25,264 which was a 624 vehicle improvement over last year. If that sales trend continues, then we'll see about a 3,300 vehicle increase at the end of the year. You won't see dancing in the streets but there is little to complain about if that holds up.
The volume winners were, predictably, Freightliner and International but the Paccar folks get honorable mention for their combined Kenworth and Peterbilt numbers.
I do assume that there will be heavy buying just before commerce increases, due to pent-up demand. On average, trucks on the road are older than they have been in a long time and newer equipment will be necessary to handle the jobs of the future. Not to mention, the government is serious about emissions standards which will create a market in itself. Still, I don't think major sales growth is likely until late Q3 into Q4.
What do you think about the time horizon for the commercial truck market to spring back to life? Are there factors that weigh in to your decision? Put your prognostication hats on; I'm interested to know what you think!
Posted by Therran Oliphant, Account Representative, Commercial Vehicle Market, Polk (06.04.2010)
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