 | Hi, I'm Margaret Zewatsky, a Product Strategist at Polk. I've had the benefit of leading key global initiatives in multiple countries which has given me a unique perspective on how businesses develop and launch products. I'm intrigued by the global automotive market place and have a passion for understanding emerging market trends. I welcome your comments and look forward to learning more about your business needs. Below are links to my previous blog entries: |
Global hybrid sales trends have continued to increase despite the declining global light vehicle market. Some of the fastest growing light vehicle markets in the world are BRIC nations with China, India and Brazil experiencing light vehicle growth in 2009.
Despite the overall automotive growth in these emerging markets, hybrids have declined. And not just declined, but not sold. In China from January - October of 2009, only 303 vehicles out of nearly 9.7 million sold, were hybrids. For this same time period, India had 61 hybrid sales out of nearly 1.7 million vehicles. And Brazil didn't have a single hybrid vehicle sold during this time period.
So why don't hybrids sell in these otherwise fast growing markets? My best answer for this is a combination of activities including relatively low retail gas prices, no financial incentives from the government to buy "greener" cars that would compensate for the higher sticker price and also the possibility of limited availability due to OEM distribution strategies.
I'm currently working on a global hybrid Polk View analysis that will be published soon and would like to hear your thoughts on why hybrids aren't selling in emerging markets.
Posted by Margaret Zewatsky, Global Market Analyst, Polk (02.09.10)
I'm at the Detroit Auto Show today and there are hybrids and electric vehicles galore. I came to the show with an interest in super small cars and wanted to see and touch the cars I wrote about in my Will Super Small Cars Generate Super Big Sales analysis. I had the opportunity to see the Chevy Spark (I was sorry to see the clam shell doors were replaced by a traditional rear passenger door), the Fiat 500 and the Toyota FT-EVII concept that sits four, but not much more.
I also had the opportunity to test drive a super small eZone from CT&T. CT&T is a Korean OEM with a fleet of electric vehicles that they are introducing to the U.S. market. This was my first test drive of an electric vehicle other than a golf cart. When I sat in the car I was surprised that I didn't feel cramped, but there wasn't room for my big auto show bag so the CT&T co-pilot held it at his feet. I sat down, was told to go slow and then reached for the gear shifter, but all I found was a button with D and R. I pushed the D for drive, stepped on the petal and away I silently went. You couldn't really tell the acceleration of the car in the basement of the Expo hall, but I don't think you'd win any races. It could be an ideal car for the urban commuter that has the opportunity to plug in or the golf cart community member looking for something different. What do you think? Is there a market for these super small electric vehicles in the U.S.?
Posted by Margaret Zewatsky, Global Market Analyst, Polk (1.12.2010)
I also had the opportunity to test drive a super small eZone from CT&T. CT&T is a Korean OEM with a fleet of electric vehicles that they are introducing to the U.S. market. This was my first test drive of an electric vehicle other than a golf cart. When I sat in the car I was surprised that I didn't feel cramped, but there wasn't room for my big auto show bag so the CT&T co-pilot held it at his feet. I sat down, was told to go slow and then reached for the gear shifter, but all I found was a button with D and R. I pushed the D for drive, stepped on the petal and away I silently went. You couldn't really tell the acceleration of the car in the basement of the Expo hall, but I don't think you'd win any races. It could be an ideal car for the urban commuter that has the opportunity to plug in or the golf cart community member looking for something different. What do you think? Is there a market for these super small electric vehicles in the U.S.?
Posted by Margaret Zewatsky, Global Market Analyst, Polk (1.12.2010)
I'm listening to the speakers at the SAA Outlook conference and one of the speakers, John Casesa, from Casesa Shapiro Group mentioned that there is research to support the demand for "clean cars" which is fueling new technologies such as those seen in Electric Vehicles (EVs). But the sales trend for EVs is predicted to be less than 1 percent of the market in the near term. With an anticipated price of $40K, the Chevy Volt's price may decrease the number of potential buyers. Meanwhile, the lack of supporting infrastructure for EVs may also scare off potential buyers.
This year's Detroit Auto Show is said to be all about electric vehicles, and EVs represent an exciting revolutionary way to create clean cars, but is there volume to support the new EV technology expenses? Bob Lutz (a speaker at tonight's SAA conference) said the Volt has future sales potential of 50-60,000 units a year, and serves as a symbol of the new GM. The Volt technology will work its way into future GM models, but will the volume of these and other OEM vehicles be enough to push EV sales past 1 percent?
Posted by Margaret Zewatsky, Global Market Analyst, Polk (01.10.2010)
This year's Detroit Auto Show is said to be all about electric vehicles, and EVs represent an exciting revolutionary way to create clean cars, but is there volume to support the new EV technology expenses? Bob Lutz (a speaker at tonight's SAA conference) said the Volt has future sales potential of 50-60,000 units a year, and serves as a symbol of the new GM. The Volt technology will work its way into future GM models, but will the volume of these and other OEM vehicles be enough to push EV sales past 1 percent?
Posted by Margaret Zewatsky, Global Market Analyst, Polk (01.10.2010)
I've held nothing back about my love of minivans, but in a time with global platforms and small cars I'm glad Toyota continues to invest in the minivan segment. New Sienna features that I found most thoughtful of the busy American family include:
- 23" second row sliding seats. Translation - I can have the seat closer to the front row for when the baby needs his pacifier while underway or I can move the seat all the way back to let third row passengers in without taking my kid out of their car seat.
- A stowable second row middle seat. Translation - I can have more cup holders and storage when there is only 2 kids in the back or another seat when friends want to come too.
- The SE trim sits lower. Translation - It's easier to get everyone in and out.
Back in 2004 there were 22 minivan players in the U.S. market and the Toyota Sienna was the best selling minivan. Now in 2009, there are 9 players in the market and Honda has been leading sales of this dwindling segment since 2005 while Ford and GM have or are in the process of discontinuing their minivan models. Minivans are now known for being uncool and to many it's seen as a necessary evil. But the Sienna is offering a new sporty SE trim with sports tuned suspension, 19-inch wheels and a bolder design. Maybe now my husband might consider driving one... I doubt it. How about you?
Posted by Margaret Zewatsky, Global Market Analyst, Polk (12.4.2009)
Small cars can provide ultra luxury, too! Luxury OEMs, Rolls Royce and Aston Martin have both announced new releases of small cars in Europe.
Rolls Royce recently announced they are planning to release a special edition Mini Cooper in 2010. Mini Cooper and Rolls Royce are both owned by parent company, BMW. It makes sense to offer a minicar to wealthy Rolls Royce owner garages that is easy on the environment, yet still allows the posh comforts to which they are accustomed.
Aston Martin is also working on a minicar called the Cygnet for the European market. The Cygnet will help the automaker comply with the 2012 emissions regulation. Aston Martin is partnering with Toyota to utilize the iQ platform, but the exterior and interior plans are said to meet the Aston Martin luxury expectations. In the recent minicar analysis I wrote, titled "Will Super Small Cars Generate Super Small Sales", the Cygnet, included in the Western European automotive forecast, was expected to sell 625 units in Western Europe by 2014.
So the big question... With a Mini Cooper starting at $20K and a Rolls Royce Phantom going for $380K+, how much will the Mini Cooper Rolls Royce Edition cost? Anyone ready to place an order?
Posted by Margaret Zewatsky, Global Market Analyst, Polk (11.24.2009)
The Ford Ka minicar, popular in Europe, will not be sold in the U.S. In an article by Automotive News released on November 9, Alan Mulally said the Ka is too small for American tastes. Aside from me immediately agreeing with him, I thought of the recent minicar analysis I wrote titled, "Will Super Small Cars Generate Super Small Sales". The market for minicars in the U.S. is small -- the segment is not forecasted to grow greater than 1% of the U.S. market. If I were an OEM prioritizing my U.S. lineup for the next 5 years, I would consider skipping the minicar segment and focusing on the B segment and the crossovers. Yet Fiat, GM, BMW, Hyundai, Toyota, and Volkswagen are all planning launches within the next 5 years, so there must be some common rationale for offering a minicar.
All this makes me wonder...
- Are so many manufacturers launching minicars to ensure they meet the new CAFE standards?
- Will the automotive forecast hold true or will the American consumer start demanding minicars and if so, will the OEMs be ready?
- Is Ford trying to make the most of the Fiesta launch in early 2010 and drive more volume by not launching a minicar?
- Or is Alan Mulally right and the B segment vehicles are the smallest cars Americans will purchase?
What do you think?
Posted by Margaret Zewatsky, Global Market Analyst, Polk (11.10.2009)
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