Automotive Forecast

Targeting Automotive Search With Improved Analytics

Optimizing paid and organic search among digital advertisers and lead generators is becoming increasingly more important and of interest to auto marketers.  However, much inefficiency currently exists in the marketplace.  Traditionally, digital analytics and marketing companies identify key terms that generate click traffic for specific campaigns. Automotive website companies provide extensive reporting for the optimization process through key words and terms. While these analytics allow...
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Nissan Targets 5% of Brazil Auto Market Share with New Facility in Brazil

Nissan just opened a new plant in Brazil, with capacity to make 200,000 light vehicles per year. Nissan has built the Livina/Grand Livina MPVs and the Frontier pick-up in a plant owned by Renault in the southern part of the country. With the new facility, they will make the March and Versa in Brazil. Previously, they were imported from Mexico, but when Brazil set limits on vehicle imports from Mexico in 2012, they had to change their strategy. The new factory, which was built in 36 months,...
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When Porsche Outsells Other German Luxury Brands in Brazil

Do you think a Jeep Grand Cherokee is a direct competitor of a Porsche Cayenne? Would you add the Volkswagen Touareg to the competitive set? Well, many Brazilian consumers do. And the results may be surprising. Let me start with the winner in the SUV/crossover segment. Land Rover is the preferred brand. The Range Rover Evoque sells over three times more than vehicle number two, the Volvo XC60. And the Freelander (LR2 in the U.S.) comes right in third place. Looking one length class above, the......
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Which Vehicles Topped Google's Search in Brazil?

When Google released its Zeitgeist 2013, a compilation of the most googled terms of the year, the Hyundai HB20 reached the top spot for the Brazilian automotive industry. It was followed by the Chevrolet Onix and Chevrolet Prisma. The new Volkswagen Golf and the Volkswagen Beetle (locally called Fusca) rounded out the Top 5. The HB20 hatchback, the Onix and the Fusca were launched late in 2012. There is no doubt the HB20 has written its success story in Brazil’s automotive history. With 3,312......
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How Quickly Should an OEM Phase a Vehicle Out?

I always think about the title of this post – how quickly should an OEM phase a vehicle out? – when I analyze Chevrolet’s numbers in Brazil, the second market for the brand just behind the U.S. Before I get to the figures, let me give you a quick background. Traditionally, Chevrolet had sold rebadged Opel models in Brazil: Monza, Corsa, Zafira, Meriva, Astra, Vectra. During GM's Chapter 11 time, no investments were made in Brazil, which got Detroit's approval of using local revenue to develop......
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Porsche Macan: “De-Nichification” Continues

The Porsche Macan, Porsche's all-new small crossover revealed last week in Los Angeles and to be launched in the U.S. next spring, should be a "slam dunk," given the landscape of today's new vehicle market. The small luxury crossover segment is one of the fastest-growing in the industry, with registrations more than quadrupling since 2008 and share of industry up by almost the same amount (see table below). The number of small luxury crossovers in the market has doubled from four in 2008 to...
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Will Automotive Luxury Brands Succeed in Brazil?

Do you have the impression that the Brazilian president meets the CEO of an automaker daily? Lately there have been a lot of announcements that OEMs will start – or resume – production in Brazil. This year, Honda and Mercedes-Benz announced new plants, while Audi stated it is coming back to Brazil and making cars in a VW plant where it built the A3 some years ago. VW confirmed it is finally updating the locally made Golf (currently still in its fourth generation). Last year, BMW announced its......
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Automotive Leasing Moves Beyond the Luxury Market

Leasing is not just back; it has climbed to new heights in the U.S. car business. Through the first seven months of 2013, leases have accounted for 20% of all new vehicle transactions, the highest annual lease penetration in at least 10 years if it holds for the rest of the year. The Fed's bond-buying program, which has suppressed interest rates, coupled with the higher quality and residuals of new vehicles, has helped to make leasing more attractive to the consumer. This industry-wide rise...
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August 2013: A Terrific Automotive Sales Month, Particularly for the Japanese

August U.S. new car and light truck sales were not merely good — they were extraordinary. Consider the following:
  • U.S. customers purchased 1,503,151 new cars and light trucks in August, the highest monthly volume since May 2007
  • This August total converts to an annual rate (SAAR) of 16.1 million, the highest monthly SAAR since November 2007
  • The August year-over-year increase of 17% was the highest monthly change since June 2012
  • Every manufacturer enjoyed a sales increase in August
  • August Ford...
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Which Vehicles do Canadians Love to Buy?

Seeing the Signs Every new vehicle sold is a signal to OEMs that customers want more of that type of car or truck. In essence, customers are voting with their wallets and with business interests ever focused on customer loyalty and customer retention, an OEM should be seeing the market signs. National Trend: Consumers Continue to Buy New Through the second quarter of this year (2013 Q2), new vehicle sales are once again on the rise in Canada. New vehicle registrations indicate that...
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Is there any Logic to Argentina's Auto Market?

If you follow my posts, you have read that there is not much logic in Brazil's automotive market (if not, you can follow the link at the bottom of the blog). Today, I will show that neighboring Argentina faces the same problem. Argentina is struggling with inflation. Last year, inflation was 10% according to the government, but opposition in Congress says it was 25% – the highest rate in South America and only behind Venezuela. The government is known for reporting lower inflation and higher...
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Exports Hurting Production in Brazil

Tax incentives were very effective in 2012 and helped Brazil reach a new sales record of 3,573,076 light vehicles. With this success, Brazil remained the fourth largest automotive market in the world, just behind China, the United States and Japan. Polk's automotive forecast does include any changes in this ranking in 2013 when sales in Brazil are anticipated to reach 3.63 million light vehicles. However, Brazil's importance declines when we analyze production numbers. Last year, production...
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Automotive Worlds Apart: New York City vs. the Rest of the U.S.

On the eve of the 2013 New York Auto Show, the media has noted the irony that one of the largest auto shows in the country is taking place in a location where many residents do not even own a car. What is less frequently, if ever, mentioned in the press is the fact that the mix of new cars purchased by New Yorkers who DO own a vehicle is far different from the mix in the rest of the United States. One of the most vivid differences between new vehicle registrations in New York and the rest of...
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Venezuela Selling 2013 Vehicles with 2009 Prices

Venezuela was all over the news last week because of the death of its president, Hugo Chávez. President Chávez passed away after a battle against cancer, which included several surgeries in Cuba. What the international media did not pay attention is to a law approved in January that affects the automotive industry. How would you react if a law determined that all new vehicles from now on should have a sticker price from the first half of 2009? Moreover, could you, the dealer network, afford...
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Dodge, Nissan and Kia Aim to Move Up in the Small Car Arena

Three new cars are striving to gain ground in the huge non-luxury small car segment. The 2013 Dodge Dart was launched last June, the redesigned 2013 Nissan Sentra last November, and the 2014 Kia Forte sedan arrives later this month. This segment accounted for 16% of all new vehicle registrations in 2012, second only to the midsize cars 17.6% among the 32 segments tracked by Polk. The non-luxury small car segment has been dominated for years by such well-known models as the Corolla, Civic and...Re...
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Toyota Lessons Not To Follow

As Toyota announced it has regained the global sales crown, it makes me think of how the Japanese OEM has wasted its chances in the world's fourth largest market. Not everyone is aware that Toyota opened its first factory outside of Japan within Brazil in 1959, a plant that is currently used to produce parts. For decades, the Brazilian market was closed to imports and Toyota only produced a version of its Land Cruiser. It was a great product for rural areas, but Toyota was far behind its...Read...
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Main Markets in South America Face Protectionism Wave

South America is a very diverse continent. Brazil, its main country, forbids diesel passenger cars and speaks Portuguese, but is surrounded by Spanish speaking countries. French Guiana still belongs to France, something not very common nowadays. Consumer behavior is also different: Toyota, for example, is the market leader in Peru and has a higher share in the countries closer to the Pacific Ocean, while customer loyalty in Brazil and Argentina goes toward brands from Europe and the United...Read...
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Autos in 2013 and Beyond - Industry Trends to Watch

Many of you may be returning to work this week after an extended vacation around the holiday season. Welcome back! I'll keep this blog short and informative. It's 2013 and the world didn't end last month as the Mayans (supposedly) predicted. Given this, we can officially remove Mayan prognosticators from the category of a legitimate forecasting entity. However, Polk has a few predictions. They go something like this: 
  1. New auto sales for 2013 will jump 6.6 percent over last year. Our U.S....
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Argentina and Mexico Reach Agreement

Late in June, Argentina canceled the free-trade agreement it has had with Mexico since 2002 (as noted in my prior blog). Argentina wanted to negotiate the agreement, as Brazil successfully did with Mexico, assigning quotas to imports but Mexico did not concede. Argentina has been consistently the fifth main market for Mexican exports since 2009, although volumes jumped 177% between 2009 and 2011. Brazil went from the fourth spot in 2009 up to second place this year, even with limits to...
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German Luxury Makes Resonate with the Young Buyer

Automotive marketers continue to covet the young buyer and this holds true in the luxury market as much as in the mass market. The luxury marque that captures the young buyer then merely has to retain him/her and move him/her up the ladder, while the luxury brand that fails to appeal to the young demographic is faced with the more expensive task of conquesting from a competitor. This is not to imply that customer retention is "easy," but it is generally acknowledged to be less expensive to...Read...
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