The Polk Blog

DRIVEN I and II - A Spotlight on African American Acheivement in Automotive

Friday, January 27, 2012 by Marc Bland

One year ago (Wednesday, January 12, 2011) the inaugural DRIVEN project was unveiled and I'm still impressed with the resulting coffee table worthy book. I remember receiving my invitation to submit my photo and bio that described DRIVEN as "a tribute to African American achievement in the automotive industry from its inception to today with a focus on Living Legends" - at which point I stopped reading.

Once I read the words "Living Legends" my mind immediately went to national automotive icons like Roy Roberts, Bill Brooks, Dave Bing, Mel Farr and Nathan Conyers. I quickly convinced myself that although I have a role in the automotive industry as a Diverse Market Leader at Polk, I still have a lot of points to put on the board before considering myself part of this very accomplished group. I found out later that the book highlighted contributions from high-performing African American automotive professionals across many levels.

Needless to say, the initial copy of DRIVEN with an introduction by highly acclaimed automotive writer, Warren Brown, and a foreword co-authored by mega supplier William Pickard and UAW leader Jimmy Settles, didn't include any mention of Marc Bland but the book has secured a prominent place in my office for the past year. Cedric the Entertainer was the celebrity host for the formal unveiling ceremony last year and in typical Cedric style, he made everyone laugh with very tasteful jokes and comments all about our beloved automotive industry. The initial DRIVEN event was more than a forum to unveil and receive a copy of the coveted book. Instead the event lived up to its billing as, "A tribute to African American achievement in the automotive industry." The evening provided excellent networking opportunities as many of the top African American automotive decision makers were all in one place at one time.

Those are my memories of DRIVEN from last year. On Wednesday, January 11, 2012, Hiram Jackson and Real Times Media unveiled DRIVEN II. The second edition of the DRIVEN series did not disappoint with an introduction penned by Felicia J. Fields (Ford Group Vice President of Human Resources), a foreword written by Delphi CEO, Rodney O'Neal. The 232 page text included a special section on DRIVEN WOMEN of which Alicia B. Davis (pictured above 4th from left) was one of four women featured on the cover of the special section along with Jenell R. Ross, Tia Norfleet, Flecia J. Fields and Jeanette Abraham.

The formal unveiling event at Cobo Hall was hosted by comedian Johnathan Slocum who had some funny moments, but there is a reason why Cedric the Entertainer is known as a "King of Comedy". On a personal note, not only was I highlighted in DRIVEN II, I was joined by six of my Polk colleagues. Plus, I was afforded an opportunity to pen a four-page article titled, "African Americans As Auto Consumers." The article went back to 1913 and shed light on the introduction and continuing evolution African Americans are experiencing within the automotive industry that includes, but is not limited to the role of automotive consumers. The article is based on Polk data along with other information sources.

The above are my thoughts on DRIVEN and DRIVEN II, I would love to hear your comments on the blog, DRIVEN volumes I or II or other forums that highlight African American achievements in the automotive industry.

Posted by Marc Bland, Head of Diversity & Inclusion, Polk (01.27.2012)

"Heels & Wheels" Puts Women in the Driver’s Seat

Thursday, January 26, 2012 by Tina Fogoros

My business associate, Marc Bland, has provided insightful blogs on the female automotive market over the last several months. During the holiday break, I came across coverage of this topic that peaked my interest. I was intrigued by the first annual two day "2011 Heels & Wheels" event in beautiful Palm Springs, CA. It is a gathering of female automotive bloggers, engineers, journalists and other automotive professionals who get together to discuss subject matter and issues as they relate to them.

Their website quotes some pretty powerful statistics substantiating the power of the women’s market:

Women make 62% of new car purchases
Women make almost 80% of the purchase decision
American women have the purchasing power of over $5 trillion
Women make 65-80% of the service and maintenance decisions

The website focuses on real world testing specifically by women. Things of interest include driving challenges, parts and service, ease of entering and exiting a vehicle, cabin functionality, industry trends such as electric vehicles and hybrids, load capabilities from groceries and child seats to suitcases and golf clubs. Issues as important as safety and horsepower to whimsical topics such as creating a car mat that doesn’t scrape the back of your expensive high heels. If it is related to women... this is the event to bring up your own real life research and experiences and find out some great information about all kinds of topics. Women have more to say when it comes to the design of future vehicles and organizations like these will probably grow in popularity.

Go to cars.com for recent "MotherProof Reviews" rating vehicles from a mother's point of view. Don't think that all mom's are sporting minivans and SUVs. You would be surprised at how stylish some of the selections are. The blog entries offer the latest news and rants for busy moms.

"Heels for Wheels" was rated a success and allows OEMs a chance to get a pulse on hot issues as it pertains to women and their vehicles or the dealership experience. As of today, the 2012 event date has not yet been published.

Interested? You can find them on Facebook or www.heelswheels.com.

Posted by Tina Fogoros, Account Representative, Polk (01.26.2012)

NHTSA Connected Vehicle Clinics Wrap Up in California

Wednesday, January 25, 2012 by Margaret Zewatsky

NHTSA wrapped up their Connected Vehicle Safety Pilot Program in California this month, concluding a five month, six city consumer research initiative that assessed driver acceptance of connected vehicle technology. The drivers response to the new connected vehicle technology has been well-received according to Ray Resendes from the U.S. Department of Transportation, who also attended the Summit on the State of the Connected Vehicle hosted by the Connected Vehicle Trade Association last week. Mr. Resendes provided the summit with an early glimpse of the pilot results and said the overall response from drivers was very positive to the new connected vehicle technologies. These early results build optimism for the next phase of the pilot program, which includes a Safety Pilot Model Deployment that kicks off in Ann Arbor, Michigan in August.

The full scope of NHTSA's research is laid out in Vehicle Safety and Fuel Economy Rule making and Research Priority Plan of 2011-2013. With participation from eight major OEMs, NHTSA's research is building to a 2013 decision on whether to proceed with additional vehicle-to-vehicle communications or possible rulemaking.

Posted by Margaret Zewatsky, Product Marketing Manager, Polk (01.25.2012)

Consumer Choices For Fuel Efficiency

Wednesday, January 25, 2012 by Brad Smith

Dependence on foreign oil, increasing fuel costs and concerns for the environment have forced OEMs to develop solutions to improve the efficiency of new vehicles and their response could be seen at the North American International Auto Show which was held in Detroit from January 9 - January 22, 2012.

For those consumers wishing to stick with gasoline engines, Mazda's Skyactiv technology is something worth considering. Skyactiv is the combination of an efficient high compression gasoline engine, a state-of-the-art transmission and a lightweight chassis. Skyactiv delivers 40 miles per gallon in the current version of the Mazda3.

The leading hybrid manufacturers continue to expand their lineups and offer new configurations. Toyota is expanding the Prius platform to include several variants including a plug-in hybrid version and the Highlander SUV and popular Camry are also available in hybrid form. Ford displayed new versions of the Escape and Fusion. Ford also introduced the C-Max, which will only be available in a hybrid format.

The number of plug-in vehicles has increased with Chevrolet's Volt and Nissan's LEAF receiving most of the fanfare while Tesla's Model S provides a plug-in electric option in the luxury segment. Ford, Toyota and Honda have announced plans for plug-in hybrids with some of these products available as early as spring 2012.

Lastly we have our old friend, the diesel engine. The European OEMs including Audi, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen continue to highlight the efficiency of their clean diesel technologies and a diesel version of the Chevrolet Cruze is expected to hit dealer lots in 2013. I believe diesel engines provide the best mix of fuel efficiency and power and would like to see diesel engines more prevalent in the U.S. market. An increase in the number of diesel options is evidence of a shift to diesel and according to Audi, which has diesel versions of the A3 and Q7, 50% of these vehicles sold are in diesel form.

There is no doubt the industry is changing and advanced research is providing consumers with more options than ever before. More importantly these options provide consumers with the opportunity to respond to fuel efficiency in manner consistent with their economic, environmental and political concerns.

Posted by Brad Smith, Director, Loyalty Management Practice, Polk (01.25.2012)

Luxury Makes at the NAIAS: Focus on the Small Car

Tuesday, January 24, 2012 by Tom Libby

The Luxury Compact Car Segment – with 27% of all luxury registrations during the first 11 months of 2011 - is the largest luxury segment. Therefore, it is no surprise that many of the luxury marques focused on small cars in their presentations to the media at the recent North American International Auto Show (NAIAS) in Detroit.

BMW unveiled the redesigned 2012 3-Series which offers understated, evolutionary styling changes; later in the year, a hybrid 3-Series will be available. Cadillac introduced the all-new ATS, an incremental model aimed directly at the 3-Series. The ATS offers styling similar to that of its larger CTS cousin, though a bit softer, and it will be available with three powertrains and either RWD or AWD. Over time, the CTS will grow slightly to compete more directly with medium-size luxury cars such as the 5-Series and E-Class. Lincoln revealed the concept version of the re-designed MKZ. If the production version of this car is similar to the concept, the upcoming MKZ will usher in a promising new era in which the small Lincoln model contrasts significantly – at least visually – from its Ford counterpart. This would be a major step forward for Lincoln, as its models in the past have been criticized for being little more than re-badged Fords (or Mercurys).

Acura unveiled the all-new ILX compact luxury sedan. This model, which will also be available as a hybrid (Acura's first), will replace the TSX and be positioned further downstream than the TSX to reduce overlap with the TL. Together the ILX and TL will give Acura a potent combination in the small luxury car segment. Lastly, Volvo revealed the Volvo S60 plug-in hybrid concept, which boasts a projected 100+ MPG. However, the launch of the production version is not imminent.

Mercedes-Benz and Audi did not directly address the small luxury car segment in their press conferences, but they remain major players in this part of the premium space. Mercedes-Benz recently launched the C-Class coupe to compete with the 3-Series two-door, and later this year, Audi will launch a revised version of the A4 in response to the new 3-Series.

With BMW launching an all-new 3-Series, Mercedes-Benz adding a competitive coupe to its C-Class line-up, Acura ready to come back after an off year in part because of inventory shortages, Lincoln re-energized after some off years, and Cadillac eager to establish the ATS as a long-term player, competition for the premium buyer could not be more intense. With leasing accountable for 40%+ of new premium registrations, there will undoubtedly be eye-catching, hard-to-believe lease payment advertising and promotions. If you have been contemplating dipping into the reasonably-priced end of the luxury market, now would be a good time to step up.

Posted by Tom Libby, Lead Analyst - North American Forecasting, Polk (01.24.2012)

Electric Vehicles - Back to Basics

Tuesday, January 24, 2012 by Margaret Zewatsky

The Department of Energy has posted an introduction to electric vehicles on Youtube. It's pretty basic, but maybe that's where the general public needs to start in order to lure them away from the comforts of their gas powered cars and trucks.

The video can't hurt considering electric vehicles represent less than 1% of retail registration. But with about 7,000 Nissan LEAFs and a little more than 5,000 Chevy Volts registered through November of 2011, I think they are off to a good start especially with the limited vehicle availability and charging stations.

Take a look at the video and tell me what you think. Hopefully as the public becomes more educated about electric vehicles, they will include these vehicles into their consideration set and maybe even buy one.

Energy 101: Electric Vehicles

Posted by Margaret Zewatsky, Product Marketing Manager, Polk (01.24.2012)

Looking Beneath the Surface at Automobile Registration/Sales Data

Monday, January 23, 2012 by Tom Libby

The U.S. auto industry is swimming in data. At the recent press conferences held prior to the opening of the North American International Auto Show, speakers from every OEM recited statistic after statistic to bolster the reputation of their brand or company. At the start of each month, the OEMs provide the press and public with a blitz of sales results. These data can be fascinating and they provide industry followers with a quantitative method by which to understand how the industry and its various players are performing.

But, in both the recent set of press conferences and the monthly press releases summarizing prior month results, the manufacturers are intent on making their results look as good as possible. And in this quest the OEMs occasionally cite data that convey an image slightly at odds with the actual results. Here are a few things to be wary of when looking at automotive sales data:

A major year-over-year sales increase for a model may be a legitimate result reflecting increased demand for that vehicle, but that increase may be because of exceptionally low results in the prior year. If that is the case, the model now may just be getting back to its "normal" turn rate. Two examples:
- Dodge Durango new registrations November 2011 CYTD are 45,332, up more than 24,000%, but for the same time period in 2010, Durango registrations were just 185.
- Volvo S60 new registrations through 11 months of this year are 18,286, up almost 3,000%, but, this model’s new registrations during the same period a year ago were just 593.
  
  In both cases, the models of a year ago were going through changeover to new designs so their production and availability was non-existent or exceptionally low. The data are correct, but they can give a misleading impression unless one digs beneath the surface.
A major year-over-year increase also may be because the model was launched part way through the prior year, so the prior year results are for a different (shorter) time period than the results for the current year. This inflates the current year results. Two examples:
- The Buick Regal, through 11 months this year is showing a 318% increase in new vehicle registrations, but it was launched in May of 2010, so its results this year are for 11 months while its registrations in 2010 are for just 8 months. If one compares the May – November results in both years, the Regal still did very well, with a 163% gain, but that is about half the reported results.
- The same logic applies to the Ford Fiesta. It was also launched in May of 2010, so again the year-over-year results are not comparing results for the same time periods. When the time periods are adjusted to compare apples to apples, the Fiesta is again doing well, with registrations up 106%, but this is less than half the 271% increase reported by Ford.
Occasionally a OEM will report sales results for a given month and compare those with sales in the prior month. This is not comparing apples with apples, as each month of the year is subject to its own unique seasonal influences; the only proper comparison is sales in any given month with sales in the same month of a year ago.
Low use of incentive data is often cited as evidence of strong natural consumer demand. For example, a manufacturer may say that its average incentive spend per unit in a month was less than that of any other manufacturer. Incentive spend is usually given in a dollar amount. Because of this, the average incentive spend per unit needs to be reviewed relative to the average price of a manufacturer’s product portfolio. A manufacturer with a relatively high average price per model may have a relatively high incentive spend per unit, while an OEM with a lower average price may have a lower incentive spend amount. In both cases, the incentive as a percentage of the transaction price is the same. OEMs with lower average prices tend to mention lower incentive spending per unit, but they can tout this partially because they do not have higher priced products in the portfolio. To overcome this issue, one needs to look at incentive spend as a percentage of average transaction price. This can be done across OEMs and is truly comparing apples to apples.
Lastly, OEMs will use specific words that include or exclude certain categories, depending on the stories they want to report. For example, a manufacturer may tout that it sells more "midsize sedans" than any other OEM; this is usually a sign that when all "midsize cars" are included, that manufacturer comes up short. Another example of the use of words is when an OEM reports that it has the best performance among "full-line manufacturers"; this implies that that the OEM may not be at the top when all manufacturers are included. The use of words is important and needs to be examined.

It has been said that data are the lifeblood of the auto industry. And there's no question it's fun, interesting and informative to follow the industry via the data. But if one doesn't look beneath the surface, one can get a picture somewhat different from the underlying, natural landscape.

Posted by Tom Libby, Lead Analyst – North American Forecasting, Polk (01.23.2012)

Ethnic Loyalty Leaders Recognized at Polk Loyalty Awards

Friday, January 20, 2012 by Marc Bland

I recently joined many of my Polk colleagues and automotive industry leaders from across the globe at the Polk Automotive Loyalty Awards held on Tuesday, January 10. The dinner and awards were part of the Automotive News World Congress that took place at the Marriott Hotel in Detroit. During the evening, Polk recognized individual vehicles, brands and the overall manufacturer with the highest customer loyalty.

As the Head of Diversity and Inclusion at Polk, I follow the ethnic loyalty awards very closely and was very pleased to see Ford demonstrate their inclusive nature by co-accepting the African American Market Loyalty to Make Award with UniWorld, their agency partner. Co-accepting the award on behalf of Ford was Amy Marentic, Group Marketing Manager- Large Car & Crossover and Ricardo Bates, UniWorld Vice President / Group Account Director (shown in adjacent photo).

Accepting the Asian Market Loyalty to Make Award on behalf of Toyota was Ed Laukes, Vice President Marketing Communications & Motorsports. The final ethnic Hispanic Market Loyalty to Make Award was presented to Honda and accepted by David Hendley, Assistant Vice President, Honda Sales.

I'm proud to work for an organization that recognizes the importance of the growing diverse market space and acknowledges the loyalty leaders in the respective African American, Asian and Hispanic markets.

With the 2011 Model Year, Polk Automotive Loyalty Awards completed and in the books, my focus has turned to the 2012 Model Year awards. My hope for next year is that all three ethnic award winners will share the stage with their respective ethnic agency partner, as Ford did this year.

These are my thoughts from the 2011 Polk Automotive Loyalty Awards. I welcome your comments on this blog.

Posted by Marc Bland, Head of Diversity & Inclusion, Polk (01.20.2012)

Marketing Technology Winners and Losers at the North American International Auto Show

Friday, January 20, 2012 by Therran Oliphant

I noticed much more enthusiasm at the industry preview and press week, which was held during the North American International Auto Show. I went to multiple events where forced optimism from the previous couple of years was replaced with genuine excitement and positivity. On Thursday, January 12, I finally walked the show floor. The cars look great this year, but that isn't why I went. I had a subversive motive for walking the floor this year. I wanted to see how each OEM ranked in their NAIAS digital marketing and advertising efforts.

Before I go on explaining the details, I have to admit that I was generally disappointed. Most of the OEMs didn't take the time to put interactivity and consumer outreach first... errr second - behind the cars of course. Regardless, I was not-so-silently judging everyone's displays and testing them for the amount of interactivity to hold the attention of perusers and shoppers alike. Then, I judged the quality and number of opportunities the displays gave the company to contact the shopper of interest. In this category, a score of a facepalm would be kind.

Disappointers

Everyone! Everyone except my two stars, which you'll see later. There were, however, some particularly disappointing displays that must be pointed out - not to admonish - but as a learning opportunity for us all.

Therran trying to work the Chevy Sonic screen

First, I was very disappointed in Chevrolet. They had a fantastic display, showcasing their new entrants into the market, the Spark and the Sonic. You would think Chevrolet would create some kind of mechanism to capture the names, emails, addresses, shoe sizes - something - of the passers-by that were interested in these models. No! Well, maybe they did but I'll never know because the one set of screens near the models didn't work! Don't believe me? Notice the picture below, how I'm touching the screen and nothing is happening.

Hey, but at least they tried. Dodge has the Dart coming out and didn't even make an attempt at getting my information. I was at that display for almost 10 minutes and never found a way to give up my info. Serously? Come on, guys! This is almost as egregious as On-Star's display of a giant Droid that showed off the telematics systems, but has no way of recording information. Very cool, but kind of a waste of time from the OEM's perspective.

Next, we had the obligatory racing games. Great. This experiential marketing stunt is certainly fine, but it does nothing to move an organization further up the consideration set. I counted at least four of these games and I'm sure I missed a couple. They ARE fun, and they do keep people at the display, but at none of them was I requested to give up my info to ride. I just got cheap thrills, then went on about my business.

Lastly, I have to talk about the rest of the companies that made no attempt. I'm looking at you, industry. Digital kiosks were obviously available, but they were not used properly by most companies at the show. Most of them were basically digital brochures and window stickers. That is the airball from the free throw line of missed opportunities.

Winners

Ford and Hyundai beat the competition, by far, in promoting interactivity while also making sure that they had an opportunity to follow up. Let's talk about how each organization accomplished this with marketing technology.

Ford placed QR Codes on a window of every car. So what if they just went to the Ford website for that vehicle? They worked, and people were snapping them all day. They followed that up with kiosks that allowed the visitor to swipe a card they

received from the Ford main booth. To get the card, you had to fill out some info on a computer. It took me about 37.3 seconds to do that, then I was off swiping away, giving Ford all kinds of data about vehicles I liked, which they linked back to my personal profile I set up earlier.

A few of them didn't work so well, but for the most part, I now have this great profile of vehicles of interest at a website linked to my own Blue Oval Card.

Ford also catered to their visitors with an elevated movie theater called Cloud Journey, that shows a video of Ford's new vision for Sync. You can also use your Blue Oval Card to swipe the kiosk so you can download the video at home and post to your Facebook. I have to say, this was an excellent use of tech to better market their vehicles.

Lastly, we have Hyundai. They got into this group for one main reason; they had a giveaway associated with their display. At one of the kiosks, a shopper could sign up to win a $500 Apple products gift card. I thought it was an ingenious way to take down information. As you go through signing up for the gift card, Hyundai asks some questions about (Hyundai) vehicles you're interested in learning more about and takes down some personal information so they can contact you later. I got an email on my smartphone within an hour of signing up.

Hyundai also kept their visitors engaged with some other cool technology, like a driving simulator and an interesting video center, telling each shopper more about Hyundai's Blue Link telematics/infotainment system. Even though they didn't spend as much money as some, they took advantage of their resources and made it a priority to be able to communicate with potential buyers, post show.

Anyone see any marketing tech that I missed?

Posted by Therran Oliphant, Product Marketing Manager, Polk (01.20.2012)

Polk Supports 16th Annual Urban Wheel Awards

Thursday, January 19, 2012 by Marc Bland

The 2012 Auto Show Week began for me like years past with the 16th Annual Urban Wheel Awards.

The Decisive Media event held at the Motor City Casino Sound Board recognizes African American, Asian and Hispanic achievers in the automotive industry. The event also serves as an annual forum for networking among ethnic automotive leaders and highlights green vehicle technology.

The evening began with an event honoring Bill Perkins as the first African American Chairman of the North American International Auto Show (NAIAS). The actual show was co-hosted by two nationally recognized personalities: Award winning actress, Phylicia Rashad and ABC News Anchor, John Quinones.

On behalf of the entire Polk organization, I want to thank Randi Payton and the Decisive Media team for once again allowing the automotive leaders of tomorrow (current high school and college students) to attend the Urban Wheel Awards. I'm a firm believer that seeing is the first step to achieving and this event definitely allows young people to see and meet automotive executives, dealers and suppliers from across the country.

Congrats again to all of the 2012 Urban Wheel Award Winners. Click here to see a list of the winners.

These are my thoughts about the 16th Annual Urban Wheel Awards, I'd love to hear your comments or any highlights you'd like to share from this year's event. My next blog topic will be "Ethnic Leaders Recognized in Polk Automotive Loyalty Awards."

Posted by Marc Bland, Head of Diversity & Inclusion, Polk (01.19.2012)

Where was the General? More on Polk's 16th Annual Automotive Loyalty Awards...

Thursday, January 19, 2012 by Brad Smith

On January 10, 2012, Polk announced the winners of the 16th Annual Polk Automotive Loyalty Awards and one question has been asked over and over again, where was General Motors? GM did not win an award this year, but finished second in the Overall Loyalty to Manufacturer category. Similarly, the Chevrolet Silverado finished second in the Mid/Full-Size Pickup Truck category.

To some it might appear as though GM has poor owner loyalty, but nothing could be further from the truth since General Motors does an admirable job of retaining their owner base and evidence of this can be seen in the results of Overall Loyalty to Manufacturer. The race was very close and GM was in the lead for four of the 12 months between October 2010 and September 2011 — the time period for which the awards are calculated. Ford ultimately won the award and finished 1.2 percentage points ahead of GM with Honda coming in third.

The chart below depicts the cumulative results by month.

Posted by Brad Smith, Director, Loyalty Management Practice, Polk (01.19.2012)

Automotive News World Congress 2012 Recap

Wednesday, January 18, 2012 by Brad Smith

For the second straight year, I had the opportunity to attend the Automotive News World Congress. This event provides attendees with an opportunity to hear the current state of the automotive industry and opinions on the future from some of the most respected leaders across the industry. This year's event was no exception and one thing was clear, the U.S. auto industry is refreshed and revitalized.

Carlos Ghosn, Chairman and CEO of the Renault-Nissan Alliance spoke about the importance of limiting priorities to ideally two major elements and stated that he worries about complacency and conservatism. Mr. Ghosn also stated that Nissan would be launching 20 new models in the next 24 months.

Bob Carter, Group Vice President and General Manager – Toyota Division stated the lagging effects of the Japanese earthquake were yesterday's news and predicted a banner year for Toyota in 2012. Mr. Carter shared that Toyota Motor Sales U.S.A. would be launching a new or designed Toyota, Scion or Lexus vehicle every 19 days in 2012.

Jim Farley, Group Vice President, Global Marketing, Sales and Service at Ford Motor Company spoke to the challenge of reinventing the Lincoln brand and to the importance of global vehicle platforms. Mr. Farley stated Ford's objective is to ensure 85% of Ford products in 2013 be built on just nine platforms.

This year's event also included remarks from General Motor's Vice Chairman Steve Girsky and Hyundai Motor America President and CEO John Krafcik. It was clear from everyone that took the stage at World Congress that 2012 would be the year of the product launch and from my research, product launches aid in increasing both sales and owner loyalty. There is no doubt that the U.S. auto industry is refreshed and revitalized, great news for an industry that has been through so much the last few years.

Posted by Brad Smith, Director, Loyalty Management Practice, Polk (01.18.2012)

The Three Ways Analytics and Data can Drive Online Ad Spend in 2012

Tuesday, January 17, 2012 by Therran Oliphant

For online display advertising of all types, 2011 was a banner (no pun intended) year. This segment (which includes rich media, banner ads, online video and sponsorship) was expected to grow to 37% of the market, according to the Internet Advertising Bureau's mid year Internet Advertising Revenue Report. Then in Q3, the industry saw a spike of 22% overall. So, online advertising is strong. Consumers are taking advantage of the interactive media access points that are availed to them through digital technology, and companies are starting to realize how to turn that increased attention into branding and direct response messaging. It is all very exciting, and promises to change the communication landscape for years to come. The goal of someone like me, though, is to move the industry forward and make the media time spent commensurate with the dollars spent, which currently isn't the case.

Online, Mobile and Digital Video time spent is well above the ad dollars that flow to them, as

Share of Average Time Spent per day with Media

represented well by eMarketer in March of 2011. This can be a misleading metric, though, as time spent shouldn't necessitate dollars. For instance, search ad revenue is greater than half of the online ad spend and web users spend the least amount of their time there. However, it works because a web surfer is there to find information, products, and entertainment suited to their search. Where I see a disconnect is when directly correlative actions are equitable in spend vs time. For instance, reading an article online is no different than reading it in a newspaper, from an attention or action standpoint. So, why the discrepancy in revenue for similar ad placement in the two mediums? The only conclusion is that traditional media dictated market pricing forever and media buyers used to buying media by "exposures" or Gross Ratings Points - not measurable action." Today, the market is more fragmented and clicks give us measurable activity. As any capitalist knows, though, competition and fragmentation drive prices down, and not everything that can be counted should be counted on as a unit of performance measurement

But don't fret, there are ways to command higher dollars per ad unit, while increasing the quality and performance of said unit. Everyone wins! However a few things must happen before this goal is a reality.

Currently, the units of measure for online advertising show automotive ads to perform abysmally. This is a problem in a world where automated optimization takes place. As I've stated before, the Real-Time Bidding (RTB) environment is great for publishers and advertisers to come together in the marketplace to establish a fair price for less attractive inventory. However, some of the automation - often based on click metrics - don't work well for a product like vehicles and vehicle-related services. A shopper is in-market a lot less for a vehicle, or even an oil change, than for milk or toothpaste. Nonetheless, media buyers and the ad tech industry use these metrics for automotive products, effectively issuing potentially suspect data to the problem, which creates wasted ad impressions.

There are three remedies I have for the aforementioned problem.

Link ad buys to actual registration data - Shameless plug? Perhaps. But think of the fact that no matter what, most of the impressions viewed will be by consumers that are going to see multiple communications in different media and are not about to buy your vehicle. If 500,000 units of a model are sold in a year, that's not bad. You buy millions of ad impressions at a time. Wouldn't it make sense to buy against owners and/or look-alikes of that model - not just some random clicker? People click for all types of reasons, and it's not always due to interest
Evaluate campaigns based on sales - This is difficult. However, there is a process by which this can take place. You don't get the immediate gratification of click metrics, but you also don't get the misleading information. I'd rather be late than in the wrong place entirely, but you decide. Targeted audience purchase is the only true way to measure effectiveness because all other metrics are very flawed. No one ever clicked on a magazine ad; how are media buyers comfortable with the ad spend in those instances? Exposures (impressions in the online world) was why. Sales is the way to count if impressions changed buying behavior.
Look at brand lift metrics while you wait for sales figures - Any good communication, whether direct response or brand focused in content, should raise brand perception. So, if you're feeling the need (or pressure) to measure now, then do quality sentiment analysis and/or utilize online survey companies to take brand lift metrics of potential consumers during and after a campaign. You'll get the validation that your communications are working, while giving the ad environment the verification that the ads are being placed properly.

If we're able to be disciplined enough to do those three things, then we'll all begin to benefit from an improved online advertising model that effectively puts more dollars into the ecosystem while simultaneously improving results for brands. However, if we continue to follow the path we're on, then advertisers will lose faith in online advertising effectiveness, due to misleading metrics. The outcomes could mean slow growth and opportunities to interact with consumers in the media where more time is spent and interactivity is most likely.

Posted by Therran Oliphant, Product Marketing Manager, Polk (01.17.2012)

Minivan Glory at the North American International Auto Show

Friday, January 13, 2012 by Margaret Zewatsky

I've been to many auto shows and have seen a bunch of concept cars, but it has been a long time since I've seen a full size minivan on the revolving platform. At the 2012 North American International Auto Show, a Chrysler 700C, in all its glory, was on display and showing what could be the next generation of minivan for Chrysler.

I'm glad the automaker is still investing in the segment even though the minivan segment only represented 3.3% of CYTD November 2012 vehicle registrations and sales trends have dwindled over the years. This segment, both loved and hated, as I've discussed before, is still a highly regarded necessity for many families. Here at Polk, I appear to be the minivan's greatest fan.

The excitement of the 700C came right after I sat in a new Dodge Caravan, maybe for the last time. This will be the last model year of the Dodge Caravan, according to the Chrysler auto show spokesperson. The plan is to discontinue the Caravan and focus attention on the Chrysler Town & Country. The Chrysler Town & Country has won the Polk Automotive Loyalty Award for 11 consecutive years in the Minivan category. This year they had a loyalty percentage of 31.5. (See the photo from this year's win on January 10, 2012.)

We shall see if customer loyalty transfers from the Dodge Caravan to the Chrysler Town & Country or if sales shift to other vehicle segments or competitor minivans.

Posted by Margaret Zewatsky, Product Marketing Manager, Polk (01.13.2012)

2012 Polk Loyalty Awards

Wednesday, January 11, 2012 by Brad Smith

My how time flies! A year has passed and once again, we have honored excellence in owner loyalty during last night's 16th annual Polk Automotive Loyalty Awards. The awards were presented as part of the Automotive News World Congress held in Detroit, MI on January 10th, 2012.

Ford dominated this year's ceremony winning six of 16 awards, including the prestigious Overall Loyalty to Make and Overall Loyalty to Manufacturer awards. In addition to these honors, Ford also won model loyalty awards with the F-Series pickup, Ford Escape and Lincoln MKZ.

Ford was also recognized in the African-American Loyalty to Make category, which highlights the company's ability to retain owners of African-American decent. Honda and Toyota received top honors in the Hispanic and Asian Loyalty to Make categories respectively.

Jeep's loyalty improved 7.4 percentage points over last year, which is more than enough to win the Most Improved Loyalty to Make category. Jeep's performance was largely driven by the success of the redesigned Grand Cherokee.

John Krafcik, Hyundai's North American CEO, was the evening's keynote speaker. He accepted the Polk Automotive Loyalty Award in the Compact Car segment for the Elantra. This is the first time Hyundai has been awarded a Polk Loyalty Award and it is the Elantra's second major award in two days (it was named North American Car of the Year on Monday).

Across the U.S. auto industry, OEMs are placing greater emphasis on owner loyalty and their efforts are paying off as loyalty rates are steadily increasing. This year's Polk Loyalty Awards recognized the best of the best. A complete list of winners can be found here.

Posted by Brad Smith, Director, Loyalty Management Practice, Polk (01.11.2012)

Polk Forecasts 7% Rise in U.S. New Vehicle Deliveries in 2012

Friday, January 6, 2012 by Tom Libby

The U.S. new vehicle industry continued to gain momentum as 2011 came to a close, with December deliveries up almost 9% from December 2010. For the entire year, dealers delivered 12,777,939 new cars and light trucks, up about 10% from 2011. The Polk Forecasting Practice expects the industry recovery to continue in 2012, with U.S. new vehicle deliveries climbing another 7% to 13.7 million units. Further growth in the industry will unfortunately be inhibited by the continued weakness in the U.S. economy, in particular the stubbornly high unemployment levels. The Polk U.S. Light Vehicle Forecast also states that pre-recession new vehicle sales levels in the 16 million range will not reappear until 2015.

In the U.S. new vehicle market in 2012, leasing will, at a minimum, continue to play a considerable role, and its influence may even grow because of the increased availability of money and improved residuals for many makes and models. This trend will drive the luxury market to an increased share of the total market as leasing traditionally accounts for more than 40% of all luxury deliveries (41.5% October 2011 CYTD). The premium market will also benefit from several major new product launches (BMW 3-Series, Cadillac ATS, Infiniti JX, among others) as well as intense volume competition among the luxury leaders.

Globally, China is expected to make the largest contribution to global new vehicle sales growth in 2012, with an anticipated 16 percent increase over 2011. Much of this growth will occur outside of the large metropolitan cities of Shanghai and Beijing. European sales are expected to be flat or down slightly to just over 19 million units, as austerity plans prevent governments in Europe from boosting 2012 sales through scrappage programs or other incentives offered in previous years.

Growth in the BRIC countries other than China will outpace many mature markets over the next few years. Polk expects Brazil to have surpassed Germany when 2011 sales results are finalized, and new vehicle sales in India are expected to surpass those in Germany in 2014.

Looking at the make level in the U.S., Toyota and Honda should realize the greatest amount of market share growth in 2012 as they win back some share lost in 2011 due to inventory shortages from the natural disasters in Japan and Thailand. Volkswagen will continue to gain market share in the U.S. as its more aggressive pricing strategy, successful with the re-designed Jetta and Passat, is applied to the new Beetle. Hyundai and Kia will both gain sales volume, but these brands may find it difficult to continue to gain share as the competition offers compelling new products in many segments. Lastly, the traditional Big Three will be competitive as they unveil several attractive new products such as the re-designed Chevrolet Malibu, re-designed Ford Fusion, and all-new Dodge Dart, among others.

Read the press release for further detail on Polk's global light vehicle forecast.

Posted by Tom Libby, Lead Analyst – North American Forecasting, Polk (01.06.2012)

Women-Focused Auto Sales and Service - A Growth Opportunity

Thursday, January 5, 2012 by Marc Bland

While reading the Detroit News recently, I came across the following article: "Women-Focused Auto Shop a Reaction to Disdainful Mechanics." The article confirmed that at least some portion of the industry can see the growing impact women are having on the automotive industry and are not only just taking note, but are actually taking action to support this growing market. The article focuses on Mae de la Calzada, who opened LadyParts Auto Services, a full service auto shop in Redwood City, CA. The key here is that Mae was fed up with traditional male-focused auto shops that presented a dismissive attitude toward their female clientele.

So what is different about LadyParts Automotive Services? I would say it boils down to the sub-heading found on the company site, "Auto Repair Designed with a WOMAN in mind." The site goes on to mention, "...and we're nice to men too."

According to the article and my review of the company's website, it doesn't appear LadyParts Automotive is affiliated with a specific OEM or brand. So my challenge to the auto industry is as follows: Which OEM or brand will be the first to create a dealership focused on women and develop a service program on par with LadyParts Automotive?

The Top 5 brands for women, based on market share, according to Polk's 2011 New Vehicle Registrations data (year-to-date through October) are as follows: Toyota (13.1%), Honda (11.9%), Ford (10.7%), Chevrolet (10.0%) and Nissan (9.2%).

My first thought is that one of the Top 5 women's brands listed above should step up to this challenge and produce a national program to ensure female clients feel comfortable and welcome. My second thought is that one of the brands ranked six through 10 including: Hyundai, Kia, Jeep, Dodge and Nissan would implement this program to help them move into the Top 5 brands for women. This is my sixth blog on the growing female automotive market. The LadyParts Automotive article supports my theory that the traditional "one size fits all" approach appears in need of tweaking for the growing female market as well.

These are my thoughts on this topic. I look forward to receiving your thoughts, comments and suggestions on the female automotive market and what changes the industry should make to better serve this automotive buyer segment.

Posted by Marc Bland, Head of Diversity & Inclusion, Polk (01.05.2012)

Spotlight on the Dominant Auto Segments

Tuesday, January 3, 2012 by Tom Libby

It seems like there are a million different types of cars and trucks on the road these days. I'm not a mathematician, but if you were to calculate all of the different combinations of vehicles available based on such vehicle characteristics as size, body type, price and powertrain, there are probably a million possibilities. Yet, even with such a wide choice of vehicles from which the consumer can choose, four types of vehicles dominate the marketplace. Midsize cars, compact cars, compact crossovers and fullsize pickups together account for almost two-thirds of all non-luxury car and light truck registrations (which comprise almost 90% of all new vehicle registrations October 2011 CYTD). The 12 remaining non-luxury segments together make up the remaining third.

While there are at least eight "mainstream" makes striving to gain share in the non-luxury business, only four currently participate in the four core non-luxury segments mentioned above. Chevrolet, Ford, Nissan and Toyota are indeed full-line brands, while their competitors are not. Dodge to this point has not marketed a small crossover (the Nitro, just discontinued, is a body-on-frame light truck), and it also lacks competitive products in the midsize and compact car segments (though new Fiat-based products are on the way). Honda, Hyundai, Kia, and Volkswagen do not currently offer a frame-based pickup, and they are warily watching as Toyota and Nissan struggle in this category.

The importance of the midsize car, small car, small crossover and fullsize pickup segments also helps explain many recent product actions and their ramifications. The current (though aging and soon-to-be-replaced) Malibu and Equinox give Chevrolet competitive products in parts of the market where the bowtie brand previously had been sorely lacking. Similarly, the recently launched, much more price-competitive Volkswagen Jetta and Passat suddenly give Volkswagen, for the first time in decades, viable entries in the midsize and small car segments. This immediately gives Volkswagen much opportunity for sales and share gains. Similarly, the Hyundai Elantra and Sonata, both sporting leading-edge styling and competitive fuel economy ratings, give Hyundai compelling products in the two largest sectors of the marketplace, a key reason for the make's recent sales and share surge.

There may be segments that command more media attention, such as sporty cars or hybrids, but sales trends suggest that for a mainstream brand to climb towards the top in the overall market, it needs to market (at least) a midsize car, small car, small crossover and fullsize pickup.

Posted by Tom Libby, PolkInsight Advisor, Polk (01.03.2012)

Most Watched Car Ads of 2011

Thursday, December 29, 2011 by Margaret Zewatsky

Autoweek just posted a list of the five most watched car ads of 2011. Of the five ads, four of them were for new vehicles: Kia Soul, Chrysler 200, Passat VW and the FIAT 500. The fifth one was for Bridgestone. I thought I would take a look at how these five most watched ads equated to new vehicle sales.

U.S. Light Vehicle October YTD Vehicle Registrations

Make	Model	CYTD Oct-2011
Kia	Soul	86,446
FIAT	500	14,364
Volkswagen	Passat	7,982
Chrysler	200	66,538

Of the most watched ads, the Kia Soul was definitely the most memorable to me and also represented the highest annual new vehicle sales with 0.82% of total 2011 October YTD sales. I loved the throwback to the running man dance moves!

The 63 million page views of VW Passat's Darth Vader ad was much higher than my favorite dancing robots in the Kia Soul ad. Passat's sales trend for the year was the lowest of all the new vehicle ads with only 7,982 vehicles sold as of October 2011 YTD. It goes to show that there is so much more to automotive marketing than advertising.

What was your favorite new vehicle ad of 2011?

Posted by Margaret Zewatsky, Product Strategist, Polk (12.29.2011)

Sport Utility Vehicles: An Endangered Species?

Wednesday, December 21, 2011 by Tom Libby

Sport utility vehicles, one of the core drivers of the new vehicle industry in the 1990s and seemingly ubiquitous on the American road at that time, are on the verge of making the "Endangered Species" list. There were 59 SUVs on the market as recently as 2006, accounting for 13.9% of all new vehicle registrations, but today there are just 35 sport utilities in dealer showrooms, and their share has plummeted to just 7.7%. This sales trend has occurred at the same time as the rise of crossovers which offer similar functionality with a softer ride and better fuel mileage. Today crossovers lay claim to 24.1% of the industry, up by almost 100% from six years ago. Some major brands such as Chevrolet no longer even offer a midsize or compact SUV, but rather rely on their crossovers in those size categories (Traverse and Equinox in the case of Chevrolet).

Some SUV segments have weathered the storm: non-luxury small SUVs' share of the industry now is the same as it was five years ago even though this segment's model count has eased from seven to five with the discontinuation of the S10 Blazer and Isuzu Rodeo. In the luxury market, the luxury midsize CUV segment's share has slipped just slightly to .2% of the market with the cancellation of the Lincoln Aviator and Saab 9-7X.

But other SUV categories have suffered substantially. The non-luxury midsize SUV segment, once home to the high-volume Explorer, TrailBlazer and Grand Cherokee, has lost more than half its share over the past five years and now accounts for just 3% of the market. Today there are just eight non-luxury midsize SUVs on the market, down more than half from five years ago. The TrailBlazer, Envoy, Rainier, Hummer H3, Borrego, Montero, Bravada, Rainier and XL7 have all bitten the dust. This category used to be a core component of most mainstream makes and their respective OEMs, but it has dwindled to the point where it is a mere sidelight.

To a lesser degree, non-luxury and luxury fullsize SUVs have also retreated. Non-luxury fullsize SUVs such as the Commander, Excursion, Aspen and TrailBlazer EXT have all gone away, and this category's share has declined by almost half to just 2.0%. In the large luxury SUV segment, the Hummer H2 has disappeared altogether and all the surviving models have suffered major volume declines.

The SUV emerged in the 80s and early 90s as a derivative of the body-on-frame midsize and fullsize pickups. If that basic architecture goes away, victim of the new CAFÉ requirements, then the SUV may also. But given the ongoing need for the towing capacity, durability and "toughness" provided to a much greater degree by the body-on-frame architecture than by the unibody, it is hard to see the former disappearing. In fact, the Polk Light Vehicle Forecast predicts the SUV will be around for years to come.

Posted by Tom Libby, PolkInsight Advisor, Polk (12.21.2011)